Domestic Politics

Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, down but not out following military defeat and political upheaval, has staked his future on reaching what would prove to be a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But with public trust at an all-time low, disillusionment among the electorate could make this the most unpredictable vote since independence was declared in 1991. Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, its first regularly scheduled national vote since April 2017. In this analysis for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that "ten months before the vote, the outcome still remains difficult to predict. Though it still seems most likely that the incumbent will win, a great deal will also be determined during the official campaign period itself, and new developments on the ground. If peace with Azerbaijan is finally within reach, and there are signs that this is the case, it will be difficult for voters to reject stability instead of insecurity and the further risk of war. Ultimately, the 2026 election will determine not just who governs Armenia, but whether the country can finally emerge from decades of conflict and semi-regional isolation, or if it is destined to remain trapped by it." He adds, "that might prove enough to sway even reluctant support for Pashinian at the ballot box. The opposition has still yet to offer any viable alternative – or even one at all."

According to the Taliban government, an earthquake measuring 6.0 on the Richter scale in eastern Afghanistan killed around 800 people on Sunday night. More than 2.700 people are also reported to have been injured. The death toll has risen rapidly in recent hours. This is partly due to the inaccessibility of the mountainous region.

Relations between Warsaw and Kyiv are heading towards a rift following to a proposal by the Polish president to amend legislation banning symbols in Poland used by Ukrainian nationalists during WWII prohibiting the display of Nazi and communist flags and signs. President Karol Nawrocki said his proposed amendment to the law would lead to the banning of “Banderite symbols” such as the red-and-black flag used by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) and the Stepan Bandera wing of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN). 

Russia has once again prosecuted a former regional administrator bordering Ukraine. This time, the case concerns Vladimir Bazarov, the former deputy governor of Kursk. He has been arrested. He is suspected of corruption in connection with the embezzlement of around 10 million euros during the construction of defensive structures. This information was reported by the state press agency TASS.

Ukrainians are taking to the streets to protest a new law they worry will undermine the work of two key anti-corruption agencies and erode the independence of bodies meant to provide a check on power. Protests are growing and spreading around the country even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered a vague new bill to alleviate demonstrators’ concerns. After a day of pressure from Ukrainian citizens, the European Commission and many European governments, Zelenskyy said he “heard the public opinion” and promised to fix the situation with a new bill that he pledged would preserve the independence of corruption agencies.

For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.  As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia wanted to become a member of the European Union within twenty years and will commit to an ambitous reform programme to meet the criteria of EU accession. In a press conference on 16 July, Pashinyan referred to his recent visit in Brussels and said the law adopted by the Armenian parliament meant the country seeks to join the EU. He acknowledged that this was not a simple process and all EU member states needed to agree to Armenia’s membership. He emphasised that regardless of whether Armenia ultimately joins the EU, the country will continue its ambitious reform programme.