Domestic Politics

George Simion, a nationalist and vocal supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump, won Romania’s first-round presidential election on Sunday by a landslide after capitalizing on widespread anti-establishment sentiment. The 38-year-old leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), will face a pro-Western reformist in a May 18 runoff that could reshape the European Union and NATO member country’s geopolitical direction.

With parliamentary elections in Armenia just over a year away, opposition figures and some analysts are increasingly questioning Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s prospects for re-election. Critics argue that he has failed to fulfil his widely promoted peace agenda and hold him accountable for the exodus of approximately 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the former Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in late September 2023. They also point to unrealistic campaign promises made during the last parliamentary elections held in 2021, including the pledge to reclaim the strategic hilltop citadel of Shusha and pursue remedial secession for the separatist but now dissolved Karabakh — goals widely seen as unattainable from the outset.

In recent times, Central Asia’s most populous nation has become the centre of attention for great powers, underscored by high level diplomatic contacts with the United States, the hosting of a regional summit with the leadership of the European Union and a high profile visit by hundreds of Russian officials and executives who participated in a trade fair in Tashkent. Western interest centres on Uzbekistan’s abundant reserves of critical minerals and a desire to develop clean energy  sources, including nuclear power. Russia, along with China, has broader trade interests, including developing manufacturing capacity.

Many of us have watched with incredulity as US President Donald Trump sailed through his first one hundred days in office. Domestically, the period has been characterised by the biggest shake-up of the American Government in history based on an old Trumpian maxim, that Washington was a “swamp”, and one suspects also a wish to settle scores with an establishment that in the past had not hesitated in challenging the Trumpian reading of America and the world. On the international level, Trump focused in his first hundred days on Ukraine and tariffs. Certainly, there were plenty of other statements to fill the world headlines: Greenland, Panama Canal, Canada becoming the US 51st state, renaming the Gulf of Mexico, to name a few.

A brawl broke out in Armenia’s National Assembly on 22 April after opposition lawmakers proposed new legislation to impose harsher penalties on those who deny or question the 1915 mass killing and deportation of up to 1.5 million Armenians by the then Ottoman Empire — and whether it should be recognised as genocide. The term, coined in the 1940s by Polish lawyer Raphael Lemkin, was partly inspired by the Armenian experience. Armenia already has laws addressing genocide denial, but this new initiative specifically targets anyone and not just those seeking to incite “hatred, discrimination, or violence.” Punishment of up to five years imprisonment would also be increased though the proposed changes are unlikely to pass a parliamentary vote.

Representatives of non-governmental organisations have issued a joint statement condemning the coordinated searches carried out at the homes of leaders of public foundations.They characterized these actions as “yet another attempt to instil fear and suppress independent civic activity.”

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu is in Tbilisi this week, in his first visit since the October parliamentary elections widely seen as flawed. The OSCE/ODIHR’s own observer mission had criticised the government’s handling of the October 2024 elections. On Wednesday, Sinirlioğlu met with the Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.

On Wednesday (9 April) a new coalition government was announced in Germany bringing back a CDU chancellor working with the centre-left SPD as junior partners. It is an arrangement that Germans are familiar with. Many post-war German governments were similarly constituted, and the German people are comfortable with this arrangement. It buries the prospect of the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland  (AfD), which came second in recent elections, having a role in government. The 146 pages coalition agreement was hammered out in a relatively short time, with those negotiating fully aware of the urgency of giving the country a stable government at a time of global uncertainty and serious domestic challenges. “Germany is back on track” announced the Chancellor-designate, Friedrich Merz, who is expected to take office in early May. Europeans should be happy. A strong Germany is the backbone of Europe, and the new coalition is the best guarantee of that.