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Not quite there yet!

Not quite there yet!

The presidents of Ukraine and the United States were both upbeat after their talks on Sunday (28 December), but clearly there is yet no agreement on how to end the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky said progress had been made during Florida talks but the US president admitted the problem of territory remained "unresolved". While both the US and Ukrainian presidents described the talks as "great", Trump said "one or two very thorny issues" remained outstanding - most notably on the issue of land. Addressing reporters at Mar-a-Lago, Zelensky said they had come to an agreement on "90%" of the 20-point peace plan, while Trump said a security guarantee for Ukraine was "close to 95%" done. Zelensky later said US and Ukrainian teams would meet next week for further talks on issues aimed at ending Russia's nearly four-year war in Ukraine. "We had a substantive conversation on all issues and highly value the progress that the Ukrainian and American teams have made over the past weeks," Zelensky said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Moscow currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory. A proposal to turn the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which Russia largely controls, into a demilitarised zone remains "unresolved", Trump said. "Some of that land has been taken," he told reporters after the meeting. "Some of that land is maybe up for grabs, but it may be taken over the next period of a number of months." Moscow currently controls about 75% of the Donetsk region, and some 99% of the neighbouring Luhansk. The regions are collectively known as Donbas. Russia wants Ukraine to pull back from the small part of the territory it still controls in Donbas, while Kyiv has insisted the area could become a free economic zone policed by Ukrainian forces. The US president has repeatedly changed his own position on Ukraine's lost territories, and in September stunned observers by suggesting that Ukraine might be able to take it back. He later reversed course. "[That] is a very tough issue," he said. "One that will get resolved." Security guarantees for Ukraine are "95% done", Trump said, without formally committing to logistical support or troop deployment to help protect Ukraine from future attacks. Trump floated the possibility of trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, saying it could happen "at the right time". Immediately after their bilateral talks, Trump and Zelensky held a one hour meeting with European leaders. European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote on X "We had a good hour-long conversation with President Trump and Zelensky. Several European leaders were present and discussed future peace talks. Good progress has been made. Europe stands ready to work with its partners to consolidate this."  
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Israel recognises Somaliland, opening a pandora's box in Africa

Israel recognises Somaliland, opening a pandora's box in Africa

Israel ‍has recognized Somaliland as an "independent and sovereign state," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday. "Together with Foreign Minister Sa'ar and the President of the Republic of Somaliland, we signed a joint and mutual declaration," Netanyahu posted to X. "This declaration is in the spirit of the Abraham Accords signed at the initiative of President Trump," he said. In doing so, Israel became the first country to recognize the breakaway region. Somalia's Foreign Ministry denounced Israel's "deliberate attack" on its sovereignty and warned that recognizing Somaliland as an independent state would "undermine regional peace." "Illegitimate actions of this nature seriously undermine regional peace and stability, exacerbate political and security tensions," the ministry said in a statement. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said he held phone calls with his counterparts from Somalia, Turkey and Djibouti to discuss what they described as dangerous developments in the Horn of Africa, following Israel's announcement The ministers condemned Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, reaffirmed their full support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, and warned that recognizing breakaway regions poses a threat to international peace and security, Egypt's Foreign Ministry said. "This initiative by Israel, which aligns with its expansionist policy and its efforts to do everything to prevent the recognition of a Palestinian state, constitutes overt interference in Somalia's domestic affairs," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.  The African Union (AU) joined the condemnations of Israel's recognition of Somaliland.  "Any attempt to undermine the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Somalia... risks setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching implications for peace and stability across the continent," an AU statement read. Israel said that it has now established diplomatic relations with Somaliland, and the two will soon set up embassies. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that by recognising Somaliland Israel has opened Africa's pandora's box. "The borders of most African countries were drawn in colonial times, and in the post-colonial period of the last seventy years, these borders have been considered sacrosanct. The two exceptions are also to be found in the Horn of Africa, where Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia and South Sudan broke away from Sudan." (click the image to read the full article).

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Opinion
Opinion: Is Trump’s Re-Election Good News for Azerbaijan-U.S. relations?

Opinion: Is Trump’s Re-Election Good News for Azerbaijan-U.S. relations?

On 5 December, the Azerbaijani Press Agency (APA) in reference to “diplomatic sources” reported that Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister rejected a United States-initiated meeting with his Armenian counterpart on the sidelines of the 31st meeting of the OSCE Council of Foreign Ministers in Malta. According to the agency, the reason behind Azerbaijan’s refusal was related to the “insistence” of the United States’ Secretary Antony Blinken to mediate between the two South Caucasian ministers. Citing the overall “unjust and biased policy” of the Biden administration towards Azerbaijan, the diplomatic source of the agency stated that “for this reason, Azerbaijan does not want the U.S. to participate in the peace agenda at all and does not consider it appropriate”.
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Opinion
Opinion: Georgia’s Political Crisis Risks Unraveling Its International Relationships

Opinion: Georgia’s Political Crisis Risks Unraveling Its International Relationships

Georgia is once again embroiled in turmoil, its central Rustaveli Avenue literally alight with protests sparked by a wave of political and geopolitical tensions. Following controversial parliamentary elections held 26 October, tensions have escalated, with many citizens accusing the government of pivoting away from the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia. They demand a new vote.
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News
US expresses support for Georgian people and condemns violence on protesters

US expresses support for Georgian people and condemns violence on protesters

The United States has expressed support for the Georgian people saying that it has been a partner to Georgia and the Georgian people for more than 32 years.  In a statement on Wednesday, Secretary of State Anthony J.Blinken said that the partnership has been rooted in a shared love of freedom and democracy and a desire to see Georgia in the Euro-Atlantic family. 
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Editorial
Editorial: Macron’s state visit to Saudi Arabia highlights shared vision for strategic cooperation

Editorial: Macron’s state visit to Saudi Arabia highlights shared vision for strategic cooperation

French President Emmanuel Macron’s arrival in Riyadh on Monday for a three-day state visit demonstrates the deepening ties between France and Saudi Arabia. The visit follows an invitation from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and it reflects the shared ambition to enhance cooperation across various sectors in conjunction with both Saudi Vision 2030 and France 2030.
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Opinion
Opinion: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Has Changed. So Must Civil Society

Opinion: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Has Changed. So Must Civil Society

Four years after the Second Karabakh War, civil society initiatives between Armenian and Azerbaijan remain arguably less impactful than ever before. On the surface, they appear few and far between, but many are often held in secret. The reason given is often security but that argument is no longer as credible as it was before. Indeed, nearly all projects that do exist remain largely untouched and unhindered. Instead, mirroring the situation before 2020, many Armenian practitioners refused to meet with their Azerbaijani counterparts, especially while Baku still held prisoners and other detainees from the war. That number is significantly less now. Time has passed and there may finally be the realisation that dialogue is the only way forward.
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Opinion
Opinion: An incomplete treaty between Baku and Yerevan will not bring peace

Opinion: An incomplete treaty between Baku and Yerevan will not bring peace

Over the past two years, numerous unofficial deadlines have been set for signing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Until the end of last year, the people of both countries held their breath in anticipation of a breakthrough, encouraged by officials on both sides who deemed an agreement possible. Later, there was significant optimism that the two former adversaries might reach a deal during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) which was held on November 11-24 in Baku.
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Opinion
Opinion: Uncertain times for Azerbaijan and Armenia relations

Opinion: Uncertain times for Azerbaijan and Armenia relations

The recent BRICS summit held on 22-24 October in the Russian city of Kazan, featured the first talks in the last few months between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership. The countries were represented by President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan as well as the foreign ministers, Bayramov and Mirzoyan. Pashinyan declared that at the moment “all the matters of principles have been addressed and resolved” by the draft treaty, although Armenia’s chief diplomat Mirzoyan toned his statement a bit down, claiming that the document “is at least 80-90% agreed upon”.
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Opinion
Opinion: Pashinyan proposes partial withdrawal of EUMA from Armenia-Azerbaijan border

Opinion: Pashinyan proposes partial withdrawal of EUMA from Armenia-Azerbaijan border

With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, discussions with Armenia on normalising relations are expected to resume in December. However, it remains uncertain whether an agreement will be reached anytime soon, as past attempts to finalise talks have consistently fallen short. That said, there may now be some clarity regarding the three key issues believed to be preventing a breakthrough. In early November, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations (AIR) in Azerbaijan, shared on X what he claims are the specific points left unresolved.
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Analysis
Analysis: China and the South Caucasus

Analysis: China and the South Caucasus

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe.