Conflict and Peace

Although we are in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan, and peace is in the air across the whole of the Muslim Middle East, commonspace.eu writes in this editorial that "problems are being patched up, not resolved. Many of the causes or factors that triggered the conflicts in the first place remain as acute as ever. But for the moment the region is exhausted. Visionary leaders need time and space to implement their reforms; others such as the Iranian clerical regime, need time to regroup after being rattled by internal and external turmoil. There is then the issue of the wider picture. The Gulf region has for decades been the epicentre of geopolitical rivalry, which often overspilled into violence. It appears to be now losing this unenviable role. Open warfare is ongoing on the European continent following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is unlikely to end any time soon."

The European and Global international system is broken. Whilst others have contributed to its decline and subversion in the past, it was Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and other parts of the former Soviet space before that, that have dealt it the decisive fatal blow."What is desperately needed in the international system are rules, and the mechanism to ensure that these rules are abided with", writes Dennis Sammut in today's Monday Commentary. "Multi-polarity may sound like an attractive solution, especially to small countries who have been under pressure from bigger players or international actors, but with closer inspection, on its own, it is not."

Russia has shelled Ukraine's southern Kherson Oblast 70 times over the past 24 hours, the region's Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram on Monday morning (10 April). Firing a total of 360 shells in 78 attacks, 17 shells hit residential areas of the city of Kherson. There were no casualties reported, however, and 90 people were evacuated from areas of the oblast under Ukrainian government control. Ever since areas of Kherson region were liberated by Ukrainian forces in November 2022, the right bank of the Dnipro river has frequently been shelled by Russia firing across the river, causes regular civilians injuries and deaths. Meanwhile, documents recently leaked from US intelligence to The New York Times have revealed that Russia is supposedly offering an extra bonus to troops who that successfully damage or destroy NATO-supplied tanks in Ukraine.

The Israeli military (IDF) has carried out air stikes on the Palestinian militant group Hamas in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip overnight on 6-7 April. The military said they launched the strikes in response to a 34-rocket barrage fired from southern Lebanon into Israel on Thursday (6 April), which it blamed on Hamas. It was the biggest attack from Lebanon in 17 years. The Israeli military have said that 25 of the rockets fired from Lebanon were intercepted, but five hit Israeli territory. After the retaliatory strikes began, militants in Gaza then fired some 44 rockets into Israel, most of which were either intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome defence system or fell in open areas, according to the IDF. At least one house in the city of Sderot was hit, however. According to the IDF, more than 10 Hamas targets were hit in Gaza, including a shaft for an underground site to construct weapons, three other weapons workshops and an underground tunnel. There have thus far been no casualties reported from either the strikes or the overnight rocket fire, however a man was injured by shrapnel in northern Israel on Thursday afternoon as a result of the rocket barrage from Lebanon.

A fundamental question defines the position of different protagonists over the future of Karabakh, writes commonspace.eu in this commentary. "A lot of the issues in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations can be managed easily with a little bit of imagination and good will. The future of Karabakh remains a real stumbling block." But if Armenia and Azerbaijan fail to reach a peace agreement before the window of opportunity closes and are soon back at the Kremlin's mercy, "they will only have themselves to blame". The world watches on as Armenia and Azerbaijan hug each other and promise peace with each other one day, and exchange threats, insults and gunfire the next. International observers are concerned, bemused, or, very often, bored by this situation. Concerns about the imminent start of a new Armenia-Azerbaijan war are exaggerated. At the moment neither side needs a war, wants it, or even more importantly, can afford it, whether it be politically, financially or socially.

Writing on Telegram on Thursday (30 March), the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar has said that Russian and Ukrainian losses in the east of Ukraine are as high as 10 to 1 on some days. This comes a few hours after the UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Sky News that the total Russian number of dead and injured since 24 February 2022 could be as high as 220,000. "The Russian forces have some really significant and deep systemic problems at the moment in their efforts," Wallace said, adding the Russian military was making "almost no progress whatsoever." Meanwhile, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces claimed on 29 March that Russia had lost approximately 172,340 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, including 610 casualties just over the past day. Although these numbers are all but impossible to verify, reports do suggest very high casualty numbers, especially on the Russian side. In other news, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said that Ukraine's counteroffensive involving recent deliveries of Western tanks may begin in April or May, but cautioned that a lot depends on weather conditions.

Developments in Yemen over the last days do not augur well for the 10 March Iran-Saudi Arabia normalisation deal, writes commonspace.eu in this commentary, writing that "it is in Yemen where the biggest test for the resilience of the Beijing agreement will come, sooner rather than later." On 10 March in Beijing, Iran and Saudi Arabia together with China signed an agreement that amongst other things provides for the restoration of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh. The agreement has many other provisions, and remains confidential, but it is widely understood that it contains provisions for lessening tensions in the region and taking the heat out of some hotspots where the two regional powers continue to look each other in the eye. Yemen invariably is at the top of the agenda.