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Conflict and Peace

Stories related to violent conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and conflict prevention, mediation and resolution.

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News
Egypt rejects Israeli "offer" for an exit only Rafah checkpoint in Gaza

Egypt rejects Israeli "offer" for an exit only Rafah checkpoint in Gaza

Egypt has rejected an Israeli "offer" for opening for exit only the Rafah checkpoint in Gaza. According to the Egyptian State Information Service, Egyptian authorities refuted on Wednesday afternoon reports that Israel claims it will open the Rafah crossing, the only lifeline for Gaza to the outside world, but only for those wishing to leave the besieged coastal enclave.  Citing an Egyptian official, the service stated that ''any agreement to open the crossing will cover both entry and exit, in line with US President Donald Trump's plan for humanitarian and political arrangements following the ceasefire.'' Cairo reaffirmed its adherence to the plan and UN Security Council Resolution 2803, including the right of return for Palestinians and maintaining two-way operations at the crossing. Earlier in the day, Israel's Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced that the Rafah crossing would reopen ''within the next few days,'' marking the first such move since February 2025. According to the statement, departures would require prior Israeli security approval and would follow mechanisms previously implemented under EU supervision. Notably, the statement made no mention of the entry of humanitarian aid, which continues to flow through the Kerem Shalom crossing. A Palestinian official also echoed the Egyptian denial of Israel's claim. The announced agreements stress that no Palestinians will be forced to leave Gaza. Those who choose to travel will have the right to return, while humanitarian aid will continue through UN agencies, the International Red Cross and Crescent, and other independent organisations. A European Union official, who requested anonymity and is familiar with the matter, told TNA that the EU has received no official notification from Israel regarding new arrangements, stressing that "no changes exist beyond the January agreements, and we await Israel's formal approval for crossing operations under the Trump plan. "Reopening the crossing will follow mechanisms jointly supervised by the EU and the Palestinian Authority to ensure oversight and transparency, according to the EU official.

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Editor's choice
Opinion
Opinion: Breaking the Present Deadlock in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Will Remain a Formidable Task in 2025

Opinion: Breaking the Present Deadlock in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Will Remain a Formidable Task in 2025

On 10 December, the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a Baku-based political think tank closely affiliated with the Azerbaijani government, held a high-level international conference titled “The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” The conference identified the territorial claims in Armenia’s constitution against Azerbaijan as the primary obstacle to peace.
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Analysis
Analysis: Armenia–Azerbaijan Relations in 2024: Fragile Progress and an Uncertain Future

Analysis: Armenia–Azerbaijan Relations in 2024: Fragile Progress and an Uncertain Future

The negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2022 has followed a recurring pattern: initial optimism for a peace agreement to be signed by year’s end, followed by disappointment as talks falter. The year 2024 was no exception, beginning with hopeful developments and concluding with unresolved disputes. In December 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration in which Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s bid to host the COP29 climate summit in November 2024, and Azerbaijan released 32 Armenian prisoners of war. This gesture set a positive tone, with COP29 serving as an informal deadline for a peace agreement.
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Opinion
Opinion: Is Trump’s Re-Election Good News for Azerbaijan-U.S. relations?

Opinion: Is Trump’s Re-Election Good News for Azerbaijan-U.S. relations?

On 5 December, the Azerbaijani Press Agency (APA) in reference to “diplomatic sources” reported that Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister rejected a United States-initiated meeting with his Armenian counterpart on the sidelines of the 31st meeting of the OSCE Council of Foreign Ministers in Malta. According to the agency, the reason behind Azerbaijan’s refusal was related to the “insistence” of the United States’ Secretary Antony Blinken to mediate between the two South Caucasian ministers. Citing the overall “unjust and biased policy” of the Biden administration towards Azerbaijan, the diplomatic source of the agency stated that “for this reason, Azerbaijan does not want the U.S. to participate in the peace agenda at all and does not consider it appropriate”.
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Opinion
Opinion: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Has Changed. So Must Civil Society

Opinion: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Has Changed. So Must Civil Society

Four years after the Second Karabakh War, civil society initiatives between Armenian and Azerbaijan remain arguably less impactful than ever before. On the surface, they appear few and far between, but many are often held in secret. The reason given is often security but that argument is no longer as credible as it was before. Indeed, nearly all projects that do exist remain largely untouched and unhindered. Instead, mirroring the situation before 2020, many Armenian practitioners refused to meet with their Azerbaijani counterparts, especially while Baku still held prisoners and other detainees from the war. That number is significantly less now. Time has passed and there may finally be the realisation that dialogue is the only way forward.
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Opinion
Opinion: An incomplete treaty between Baku and Yerevan will not bring peace

Opinion: An incomplete treaty between Baku and Yerevan will not bring peace

Over the past two years, numerous unofficial deadlines have been set for signing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Until the end of last year, the people of both countries held their breath in anticipation of a breakthrough, encouraged by officials on both sides who deemed an agreement possible. Later, there was significant optimism that the two former adversaries might reach a deal during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) which was held on November 11-24 in Baku.
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Opinion
Opinion: Uncertain times for Azerbaijan and Armenia relations

Opinion: Uncertain times for Azerbaijan and Armenia relations

The recent BRICS summit held on 22-24 October in the Russian city of Kazan, featured the first talks in the last few months between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership. The countries were represented by President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan as well as the foreign ministers, Bayramov and Mirzoyan. Pashinyan declared that at the moment “all the matters of principles have been addressed and resolved” by the draft treaty, although Armenia’s chief diplomat Mirzoyan toned his statement a bit down, claiming that the document “is at least 80-90% agreed upon”.
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Opinion
Opinion: Pashinyan proposes partial withdrawal of EUMA from Armenia-Azerbaijan border

Opinion: Pashinyan proposes partial withdrawal of EUMA from Armenia-Azerbaijan border

With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, discussions with Armenia on normalising relations are expected to resume in December. However, it remains uncertain whether an agreement will be reached anytime soon, as past attempts to finalise talks have consistently fallen short. That said, there may now be some clarity regarding the three key issues believed to be preventing a breakthrough. In early November, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations (AIR) in Azerbaijan, shared on X what he claims are the specific points left unresolved.
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Opinion
Opinion: Armenia and Azerbaijan again at crossroads as informal COP29 deadline passes

Opinion: Armenia and Azerbaijan again at crossroads as informal COP29 deadline passes

November marks the fourth anniversary of the end of the 2020 Karabakh war. It was also the month considered as an informal deadline for initialling or signing some kind of document ending the conflict between Yerevan and Baku or at least a joint statement cementing points agreed in peace talks to date. Instead, having failed to do so by the time of this month's United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku, and with Yerevan effectively shunning the event, Azerbaijan says that negotiations will now resume in December. As usual, Azerbaijan says Armenia must change its constitution. Armenia refuses to do so – or at least not until other constitutional changes are put to referendum still most likely in 2027. 
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News
Azerbaijan-NATO event focused on energy security and climate change challenges

Azerbaijan-NATO event focused on energy security and climate change challenges

On Monday (28 October), Azerbaijan held a meeting in Baku with NATO's Climate and Energy Security Sector representatives from the Innovation, Hybrid Issues and Cybersecurity Division and representatives from NATO member and partner countries to discuss energy security and climate change.