On Sunday, December 8th the long-ruling Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled the country, ultimately giving up power to the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The day marked the end of the 61-year-long authoritarian regime, started by Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad. The regime scared the Syrian population with regular instances of torture, mysterious disappearances and unlawful killings in cases of resistance against the ruler. Since the 2011 Arab Spring’ protests that resulted in the rise of repression and a civil war, Syria’s economic and political landscape was completely ruined. Even though the long-awaited Assad’s fall is a time of celebration for many around the world, it is only the beginning of a long, demanding journey to rebuild the country from scratch.
The last 13 years emphasized the divisions in the country, with religious, ethnic and political minorities struggling for land and power. With the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group taking charge of the government, there are many possible risks for their plans. Not only must the rebel group prove itself as an inclusive leader to all the different ethnic and religious groups, but it also must earn respect in the global arena. To assure Syria’s prompt recovery, political support and international cooperation is necessary. Unfortunately, due to the fragility of the current government, it might become a battleground of foreign interests. Turkey, Israel, the US and many other countries have already expressed their opinions, or have conducted military operations on the ground in Syria. Given the fast-paced developments and possible changes in the regional balance of power, it is important to analyse the interests of international actors.
Israel asserting regional power
With the 61-year regime’s fall, neighbouring Israel has quickly taken action by sending military troops to the south of Syria. Taking advantage of the unstable situation, the IDF seized the land on Sunday 8th, the same day as Assad’s escape to Russia. Netanyahu’s army seized strategic points on the Golan Heights, together with conducting over 350 airstrikes targeting weapon warehouses, airports, naval bases and research centres. The attacks aimed to demonstrate Israel’s power and military capabilities. However, an official Israeli statement claims that the attacks were necessary for ensuring security and combating terrorism in the region.
Transformation of Syria’s regime does not go along with Israel’s agenda. A weak, authoritarian regime was not posing any threats to Netanyahu’s government. Despite Assad being in alignment with Iran and Hezbollah, Israel’s regional adversaries, a war-torn country was not a challenge to the regional balance of power. A new government emerging on land sharing the border with Israel might pose concerns for Israel’s security, specifically due to instability and fractured rebel groups. On the other hand, the change of regime in Syria might allow Israel to assert a broader objective of having a buffer zone all over their state lines. With a new Syrian government in sight, Israel will ensure to present itself as a great regional power, which will strike back if provoked.
Türkiye's hopes and threats
Similarly to Israel, the Turkish military conducted airstrikes shortly after Assad’s fall. Targeting the Kurdish militia in the northern Syria aimed to minimize the threat posed to Türkiye. Given the long story of the Kurdish struggle for self-determination in the area of south-eastern Türkiye and northern Syria, Erdogan’s government fears a stronger re-emergence of the motion due to the unstable situation. The Turkish president has underlined that he will not accept Kurdish militia or Islamic State benefiting from the regime change.
Despite the conflict with the Kurdish ethnicity, the Turkish government emerges as a winner of the current political changes in Syria. Having supported the Syrian rebel groups and hosting around 3.6 million refugees, these unpopular policies ignite trust and closer cooperation with the new leaders of Damascus. Additionally, as accepting large numbers of refugees had a negative public reception in Türkiye, the return of refugees back to Syria could lead to an increase in Erdogan’s popularity.
Uncertain involvement of the US
The US involvement in shaping the new Syrian government is not as straightforward as it is with the regional neighbours. Even though the HTS rebel group, is still considered a terrorist organization by the US government, the Biden administration confirmed being in contact with the successors of Assad’s regime. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken urged the new regime to respect human rights and reject extremism. As Syria becomes a crucial piece in the regional balance of power, the US government has a strong interest in the region in order to maintain their influence, as well as to prevent the Islamic State from gaining ground.
The current approach towards Syria might significantly shift with Donald Trump taking office at the beginning of 2025. President-elect has so far indicated that Syria is ‘not our fight’, therefore he will not intervene in the internal politics. However, it is known that Trump is a strong ally to Israel, which leads us to believe he will support Netanyahu’s agenda towards Syria. This approach is still up to change, as a lot depends on Trump’s strategic advisors. The US might use the opportunity to weaken Iran’s influence, as Assad’s regime was strongly supported by Teheran. Given Assad’s association with Iran, HTS will most likely search for other allies, such as the US. Another measure Trump’s administration could implement is lifting economic sanctions in order to promote the inflow of money, which would significantly accelerate Syria’s development.
The history has different courses
The joy and celebration of Syrian communities around the world give hope for the future. However, the end of Assad’s regime is only the beginning. The new government will need to tackle an endless number of problems, beginning with ensuring peace among groups with territorial claims and challengers of a unitary government, through rebuilding infrastructure, all the way to managing an inflow of Syrian refugees. Without much political experience, rebel groups will need foreign political support.
There are many paths for Syria moving forward, although without a strong framework and international cooperation Damascus might fall back to yet another revolution. Looking back at the cases of Iraq’s Hussein or Sudan’s Bashir, the fall of a tyrant might lead to more chaos, or even the creation of another cruel regime. Similarly, foreign interference could quickly backfire when a state becomes merely an extension of another power. Syria’s case might prove the political arena wrong and particularly if multilateral cooperation takes ground.
