Region

South Caucasus

The South Caucasus – a region encompassing Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - is one of strategic importance, not only for adjacent countries, such as Turkiye, Russia, Iran and the Central Asian states, but also for neighbours such as the European Union and the GCC states, and globally for the United States, India, China, Pakistan and Japan.

commonspace.eu team brings decades of experience of working in the South Caucasus and we are pleased to share our insights with our loyal readers through the website, and the sister newsletter, Caucasus Concise.

Editor's choice
Opinion
What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

The agreements reached in the US-mediated summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington on August 8 are poised to fundamentally reshape the region's future. Particularly, the deal concerning the Zangezur corridor – rebranded as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – holds significant geopolitical importance. If implemented, the TRIPP agreement would deal a severe blow to the regional standing of Russia and Iran. More importantly, it would pave the way for a strategic U.S. presence in this critical geography. This outcome represents a success that few would have predicted for the United States, especially for the Trump administration, given the region's notoriously complex and volatile geopolitics.
Editor's choice
Analysis
Despite disillusionment, Pashinyan favourite to win crucial 2026 vote in Armenia

Despite disillusionment, Pashinyan favourite to win crucial 2026 vote in Armenia

Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, down but not out following military defeat and political upheaval, has staked his future on reaching what would prove to be a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But with public trust at an all-time low, disillusionment among the electorate could make this the most unpredictable vote since independence was declared in 1991. Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, its first regularly scheduled national vote since April 2017. In this analysis for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that "ten months before the vote, the outcome still remains difficult to predict. Though it still seems most likely that the incumbent will win, a great deal will also be determined during the official campaign period itself, and new developments on the ground. If peace with Azerbaijan is finally within reach, and there are signs that this is the case, it will be difficult for voters to reject stability instead of insecurity and the further risk of war. Ultimately, the 2026 election will determine not just who governs Armenia, but whether the country can finally emerge from decades of conflict and semi-regional isolation, or if it is destined to remain trapped by it." He adds, "that might prove enough to sway even reluctant support for Pashinian at the ballot box. The opposition has still yet to offer any viable alternative – or even one at all."

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Editor's choice
Opinion
Opinion: Armenia Close To The Brink

Opinion: Armenia Close To The Brink

Bagrat Galstanyan, the hardline cleric who led street protests against the start of border demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and called for the resignation or impeachment of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has been placed in pre-trial detention for two months. More than a dozen others have also been detained, with that number expected to rise. They are accused of plotting a coup ahead of next year's parliamentary elections, following the publication by pro-Pashinyan media of an alleged seven-page document detailing the plan.
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News
Archbishop arrested in Armenia over alleged coup plot

Archbishop arrested in Armenia over alleged coup plot

Armenian authorities on Wednesday arrested a prominent Christian cleric, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, along with 13 other people and charged them with orchestrating a plot to overthrow the government. In a statement reported by Reuters, Armenia's Investigative Committee said it had filed criminal charges against Galstanyan and 15 others whom they said had "acquired the means and tools necessary to commit a terrorist attack and seize power". A total of 14 individuals have been arrested, investigators said.
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Opinion
Armenia’s Rift Between Church and State Deepens

Armenia’s Rift Between Church and State Deepens

Armenia finds itself in deepening discord between its political and religious elites. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s unprecedented public attacks on Catholicos Karekin II, head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, mark further escalation in a personal feud waged since the 2018 Velvet Revolution. It has worsened each year since and not least since Karekin II approved the participation of his own clergy to join protests against Pashinyan in 2022 and for one to lead them in 2024.
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News
Georgian Parliament Speaker says EU Funding is Promoting ‘Hatred, Violence, and Propaganda’ in Georgia

Georgian Parliament Speaker says EU Funding is Promoting ‘Hatred, Violence, and Propaganda’ in Georgia

Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili has severely criticised how funding from the European Union is being implemented in Georgia saying that ministers from European Union Member States and EU Commissioners are making unjustified critical statements about Georgia while hatred, violence, and propaganda are being encouraged in the country with EU funding. According to the Georgian Public Broadcaster, Papuashvili said he was troubled by the narrative heard from various ministers from EU Member States before the meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council held on 23rd June claiming that “disinformation is being spread about some alleged democratic backsliding or walking the wrong path”.
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Analysis
Analysis: Shadows and Sunlight: Armenia and Türkiye Seek Common Ground

Analysis: Shadows and Sunlight: Armenia and Türkiye Seek Common Ground

Pashinyan's official visit to Türkiye on June 20, 2025, marks a strategic shift from symbolic reconciliation to strategic rapprochement. Normalisation, for Yerevan, is not an end in itself but a transformative initiative to put an end to Armenia's geopolitical isolation, to diversify its transit routes, to decrease its reliance on Russia and to get access to Turkish ports, measures that reorient Armenia economically and logistically toward the West. Türkiye, on its part, is seizing the moment to strengthen its role as a regional intermediary. Consequently, by promoting normalisation, Ankara solidifies its impact in the South Caucasus and sends a positive signal to Western partners: the EU and U.S., in particular, about its evolving role in the region's stabilisation.
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News
 Pashinyan-Erdogan meeting may be a game-changer in Armenia-Turkish relations

Pashinyan-Erdogan meeting may be a game-changer in Armenia-Turkish relations

Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, made a well-prepared and carefully orchestrated visit to Türkiye on Friday evening (20 June), during which he held talks with the Turkish President, Recip Tayip Erdogan. Commonspace.eu political editor in a comment said that Pashinyan‘s visit to Türkiye was well prepared and carefully orchestrated by the two sides. Potentially the visit can be a game-changer in Armenia- Türkiye relations, leading to the restoration of full diplomatic relations and the opening of borders. In both Armenia and Türkiye there is increasing support for these steps.  No major breakthrough was announced after the visit, but none was expected. The day before Pashinyan’s visit, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev also met Erdogan in  Türkiye. Aliyev continues to push Türkiye not to take any steps with Armenia before Armenia and Azerbaijan settle the differences between them. But Türkiye may decide to make a move sooner than the Azerbaijan president wants.
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News
Armenia aims to become tech hub of South Caucasus with new AI data factory

Armenia aims to become tech hub of South Caucasus with new AI data factory

Armenia is set to host its own artificial intelligence data factory, with the project valued at $500 million and scheduled to begin operations in 2026. This investment initiative is being jointly implemented by Firebird, the Armenian government, and NVIDIA, JAMnews has reported. “FirebirdCloudAI is Armenia’s largest and most important tech investment the country’s ‘Stargate’. The idea was born when Jensen Huang, co-founder and CEO of NVIDIA, visited Yerevan in 2023. Today, it’s becoming reality. The AI factory, equipped with thousands of Blackwell GPUs, will spark innovation across Armenia,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wrote on X.
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Monday Commentary
The Georgians are still waiting for the man on the white horse!

The Georgians are still waiting for the man on the white horse!

The political crises in Georgia that started after disputed parliamentary elections at the end of last year, shows no sign of easing. The government, formed by the ruling Georgian Dream party, appears exhausted. Its strategy of wearing out the opposition failed. It is now increasingly resorting to repression. Many opposition activists have been arrested, and the Government keeps introducing laws and administrative measures that are meant to tighten its control of the country, but in practice increase the resolve of its opponents. The Georgian Dream government is at a dead end.