South Caucasus

There is intense diplomatic activity in the South Caucasus ahead of a likely resumption in direct negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an effort to normalise relations between them after decades of war. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that synchronising the various elements that are part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement process is always difficult, and the international context also continues to complicate matters. But there is a new sense of expectation in the air that the next days and weeks can bring about the long expected breakthrough.

This week the European Union deployed its unarmed monitoring mission in Armenia with a mandate for two years.  EUMA -  EU Mission in Armenia - was formally established by a Council Decision on 23 January 2023. According to the EU, “through its deployment on the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it aims to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia, build confidence and human security in conflict affected areas, and ensure an environment conducive to the normalisation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan supported by the EU.” The decision to deploy a longer term mission is a bold step on the part of the EU. It is necessary and underpins the EU commitment to long term peace in the region. But it would be wrong not to mention that the mission is fraught with risks, which need to be managed.

The leaders of the three South Caucasus countries made a rare joint appearance at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, to outline their vision for the future of the region. There was a certain awkwardness in the air as Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia and Irakli Garibashvili of Georgia answered questions put by the moderator, Christoph Heusgen, during a panel entitled "Moving mountains, building security in the South Caucasus". The moderator further complicated things when he described the event as a historic first meeting of the leaders of the three South Caucasus countries. An appearance at the same event can hardly be called a meeting. Despite this however, the appearance of the the leaders together is a rare event, and augurs well for future regional co-operation which up to now has been largely non-existent. On the margins of the Munich conference, president Aliyev and prime minister Pashinyan also had a face to face meeting in a gathering hosted by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. After a hiatus of several months it now seems that the peace process between the two countries is starting to gather pace again.

The earthquake that hit Turkey and parts of Syria on 6 February was a massive tragedy. As of Thursday (16 February) it has left nearly fifty thousand people dead, many tens of thousands injured and millions affected directly or indirectly. The world rallied around the beleaguered communities, putting aside political differences and diplomatic obstacles. The impact of the earthquake on Turkey was enormous. Ten out of eighty one Turkish provinces were affected, and some Turkish towns were wiped away almost completely. Humanitarian aid started pouring into Turkey from every part of the world. The contribution of one small neighbouring country was particularly significant, not only as part of the humanitarian effort, but also for its political and diplomatic symbolism. Armenia and Turkey have had a difficult relationship for decades. The two neighbouring countries do not have diplomatic relations. Their borders are closed. Recent attempts to normalise relations appeared to be moving at very slow speed – both sides having to manoeuvre around many sensitive issues, and a heavy baggage of history. It took an earthquake to jolt relations out of decades of animosity.