South Caucasus

The ongoing protests in Georgia, which erupted one month after the parliamentary elections and triggered by the Georgian Dream government’s announcement to suspend the EU accession process, are sending ripples across the entire South Caucasus, and regional countries fear it could snowball into wider instability. For Baku, a stable Georgia has always been central to its regional strategy, serving as a reliable partner and a critical gateway to international markets. Consequently, for the  Azerbaijani leadership maintaining the status quo is critical to prevent chaos in a region that is already subject to strong volatility. At the same time, a Georgian government that would shift away from its Western partners may not necessarily be in Azerbaijan's long-term interest.

After the controversial victory of the ruling party in Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26, it initially appeared as though the opposition was in disarray. Many observers expected widespread protests and a dramatic confrontation between the two sides, but that did not materialise straight away. Instead, two days later, a solitary protest took place, drawing no more than 19,000 participants that appeared downtrodden and forlorn.

If there is one thing that strikes out from the events in Georgia in the last five weeks it is Salome Zurabishvili and the role she has played in keeping together the disparate Georgian Opposition. She has risen to the occasion in a way few thought she has the capacity to do. Georgian Dream never took her seriously, in all the time she was president. That had little consequence. But their failure to take her seriously now is a fatal mistake which will cost them dearly. Salome Zurabishvili left the Orbeliani Palace on 29 December, saying she was taking her legitimacy with her. Most Georgians still see her as the president. In any case, Salome Zurabishvili has become a phenomena. She will be a part of any future solution for Georgia Georgian Dream were very keen to replace Salome Zurabishvili. But their choice is unfortunate. Most Georgians had not heard of Mikheil Kavelashvili before he was nominated to the post of president. Those that did, remembered him as an ex-footballer. In parliament his role was completely undistinguished: one of a cohort of men that Georgian Dream wheels out whenever it needs the numbers to pass a law or some other administrative measure. Under the Georgian constitution, the president is a symbolic figurehead. But Kavelashvili cannot even be that. His time as president is likely to be a short and unhappy one. Crises? What crises? That Georgia is in the middle of its most serious crises since independence is recognised by most. But the Georgian Dream government is in complete denial. It is treating events on the streets of Tbilisi and other Georgian cities as temporary aberrations which will soon blow away and are forgotten. It is completely indifferent to the calls of the international community. This is an example of how cut-off the Georgian Dream government is from reality. It was left to Gia Volski, the ascetic 1st Deputy Speaker of Parliament, to articulate a response to the accusation that the Georgian government was ignoring a major crises. Speaking at a press briefing on 30 December, Volski said: “The situation is difficult, but it does not indicate the existence of a political crisis”. Volski than explained what in his view constitutes a crises: “a political crisis is a situation when the government cannot be approved, the budget cannot be adopted or a vote of no confidence is expressed in the government!” Until they admit there is a crisis the Georgian Dream will not take measures that would contribute to its solution. Ivanishvili must get real In all this, a central figure is the de facto leader of Georgian Dream and ruler of Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili. This week he was included on a US sanction list. But many think it could have been worse – and some think it should have been worse. But it seems what the Americans tried to do is to bring Bidzina to his senses. Ivanishvili must get real for his sake, and for the sake of Georgia. There is still a small chance that he will. Georgians need to draw lessons from present events in order to build a future that is both honourable and sustainable.

Mikheil Kavelashvili was sworn in as president of Georgia on Sunday as thousands of protesters gathered in the capital Tbilisi to demonstrate against his inauguration. Outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili, an opponent of the ruling Georgian Dream party said in a defiant speech to supporters outside the presidential palace that she was leaving the residence but that Kavelashvili had no legitimacy as president.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the AZAL plane that crashed on Christmas Day (25 December) was hit by a Russian missile fired from Grozny. Russian President Vladimir Putin took the unusual step of apologising on Friday (27th December) but stopped short of admitting responsibility . - Commenting on the crash during an interview with Azerbaijan Television President Aliyev dismissed earlier Russian claims that the plane was struck by birds. The fact that the crashed plane was full of holes completely eliminates the bird strike theory, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said . According to him, Azerbaijan presented clear demands to the Russian side. "These demands were officially communicated to them on December 27. What do they consist of? First, the Russian side must apologize to Azerbaijan. Second, it must admit its guilt. Third, those responsible must be punished, held criminally liable, and the Azerbaijani state, as well as the injured passengers and crew members, must be compensated. These are our conditions. The first of them was fulfilled yesterday. I hope they will accept other conditions as well. All these demands are fair. There are no extraordinary demands and issues here; all this is based on international experience and normal human behavior," Aliyev noted. Russian President Vladimir Putin phoned Ilham Aliyev again after the interview was aired.

Bachuki Kardava, Georgian  Politician and leader of the National Democratic Party died at the age of 54. Dennis Sammut wrote this short  obituary for commonspace.eu: I met Bachuki Kardava for the first time in 1995, He was then the President of the NDPs youth wing. It was shortly after the death of Gia Chanturia leader of the National Democrats also at a young age. Bachuki had worked closely with Gia Chanturia and missed him both as a friend and as political mentor. In those turbulent times of the mid 1990s Bachuki was always helpful and supportive, a  great friend to the tiny but vibrant international community in Georgia at the time. He was frustrated by the developments within the National Democratic Party and missed the wisdom of Gia  Chanturia. In the mid 1990s the NDP was the second strongest political force in Georgia. But that moment passed and when he became leader of the party in 2003 Bachuki Kardava could not bring back its  past glory. He died at the young age of 54. I extend my sincere condolences to all his family and friends

n Baku, flags on official buildings and embassies of foreign countries flew at half mast Thursday (26 December) as Azerbaijan observed a day of mourning following the crash of an AZAL plane which resulted in the death of 38 passengers and crew. The plane was on  a scheduled flight from Baku to Grozny, but was diverted to Kazakhstan because of bad weather. President Ilham Aliyev was informed of the crash whilst on his way to St Petersburg where he was to attend the informal CIS summit hosted by President Putin. He ordered his plan to return to Baku to lead the Azerbaijani response to the crash. Azerbaijani media speculated about the causes  of the crash, with some outlets saying that it was hit by a Chechen missile whilst approaching Grozny.

In an interview with Armenpress Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed a number of critical aspects of the pending peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In his view, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty would gain superior legal force over Armenian laws and the topic of territorial demands would be closed forever. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the same would happen in Azerbaijan meaning that the signing of the peace treaty would practically dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan particularly in relation to their respective constitutions. The Prime Minister also noted that Armenia was not engaged in an arms race with any country but was acquiring armaments exclusively for defending Armenia’s borders and territorial integrity.