South Caucasus

The resignation of three key figures in the Georgian leadership, who had direct access to Georgia’s de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, leaves Prime Minister Irakli Kobahidze vulnerable and exposed. The Georgian political crises that started with the elections held in October 2024 which the opposition, and most of the world, considered flawed, is now in its eight month. In the meantime a large number of opposition activists and leaders have been jailed. Kobahidze and his government believed that the opposition efforts will fizzle out. They have not. Now Kobahidze and his inner circle look increasingly tired and embattled. Georgia has been in limbo for months. Young people are getting worried about their future. The crises is entering a new phase.

On May 20–21, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan marked a significant moment in the evolving dynamics of Armenia–Russia relations, signaling Moscow’s intent to stabilize and reinforce ties with its long-standing ally in the South Caucasus. Set against the backdrop of deteriorating Russia–Azerbaijan relations following the tragic crash of an Azerbaijani airliner plane on December 25, 2024, the visit highlighted Russia’s delicate balancing act in a region where its influence is increasingly contested. Lavrov’s talks with Armenian leaders focused on reaffirming bilateral commitments within the frameworks of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Following the parliamentary elections of October 2024, the ruling Georgian Dream party created favourable conditions for the growth of Russian influence in the region according to the annual report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) that has just been presented to the US Congress. The report says Moscow is almost certainly seeking to bring Georgia back into its sphere of influence and has already made progress through internal political developments in the country.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the Yerevan Dialogue that “sustainable and lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only possible, but within reach” as he delivered an update on the current status of peace talks to participants of the 2nd annual forum on Monday. Negotiations over a draft agreement were completed in March, and Armenia and Azerbaijan indicated their willingness to sign it.

The 6th round of the Security Dialogue between the European Union and Azerbaijan was held in Brussels, the Azerbaijani Ambassador to Belgium and Luxembourg, Head of the Delegation to the EU Vaqif Sadiqov wrote on his page on X.  The meeting was co-chaired by Hikmet Hajiyev, the Assistant of the President of Azerbaijan & Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Presidential Administration and Olof Skoog, the Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service. 

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in the Albanian capital, Tirana, on the sidelines of the sixth European Political Community Summit that brought together leaders of 47 countries. The two sides discussed the current situation and underlined the importance of continuing efforts toward signing a peace agreement. No details of the meeting held on 16 May have been disclosed but published photographs and video footage show Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev informally across a coffee table.

Khalaf Khalafov, the Azerbaijani President's Representative on Special Assignments, has held a number of meetings in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. As part of the trip, Khalafov met with Murat Nurtleu, Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan & Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Erzhan Kazykhan, Assistant to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan for External Affairs.

On April 25, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas paid a visit to Azerbaijan. This was the first visit of the EU’s top diplomat to Baku in the past nine years. Both sides gave positive messages during the visit about the existing situation in bilateral relations and future prospects. President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed Azerbaijan’s position as a dependable EU partner, drawing attention to the Southern Gas Corridor’s steady supply of natural gas to Europe over the past four years. Currently, ten European nations – eight of them EU members – receive Azerbaijani gas, positioning Baku as a major contributor to the continent’s energy security. Aliyev also pointed to effective collaboration under the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council and noted promising opportunities in renewable energy. Azerbaijan’s involvement in advancing the Trans-Caspian Energy Corridor and joint Black Sea energy projects with countries like Georgia, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria was also underscored.