South Caucasus

On Friday, (26 September) there was another amazing event in the process of Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue, this time in Baku. Around twenty five Azerbaijanis involved in five thematic groups established by LINKS Europe earlier this year were briefed by Murad Muradov, co-Chair of the thematic group on Peace and Security; Liman Namazova, Chair of the thematic group on Environment; Lala Jumayeva, Chair of the thematic group on gender and diversity; Nigar Gurbanli, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on regional connectivity; and Ramazan Samadov, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on Governance, on the work done so-far. Murad Muradov spoke about his visit to Yerevan earlier in the week, and his speech to Armenian thematic group members. He said the momentum for peace, dialogue and regional co-operation was stronger than ever before. Ambassadors and other representatives of EU member states and others, as well as representatives of the EU Delegation, the EUSR office and other international institutions were in attendance. In a short speech to the gathering, LINKS Europe Director, Dr Dennis Sammut, said that enemies of peace remained active in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Many had been warmongers for years, and it was difficult for them to change. However it was important to engage them, and have an open and honest discussion with them. The Azerbaijani members of the thematic groups are eager to meet their Armenian counterparts in person in Tbilisi 27-28 October, when they hope to finish the work on the five reports.

This Saturday marks the fifth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War. To be honest, and personally speaking, it had always seemed the continuation of the first waged between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. After all, in the three decades between both, the conflict had nearly always been described as ‘frozen’ rather than resolved – at least until it wasn’t.

Yesterday (23 September) around thirty Armenians involved in the five Armenian-Azerbaijani Thematic Groups gathered in Yerevan to be briefed by Leonid Narsisian, co-Chair of the thematic group on Peace and Security; Narek Minasyan, Chair of the thematic group on regional connectivity; Sargis Harutyunyan, Chair of the thematic group on Governance; Aghavni Harutyunyan, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on Environment; and Andranik Shirinyan, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on gender and diversity. The Thematic Groups are a LINKS Europe initiative aimed at promoting a new style of Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue, fit for the new reality. They will present their five reports in mid-November. We were delighted to welcome to the meeting in Yerevan, Murad Muradov, Azerbaijani co-Chair of the thematic group on peace and security who also spoke. Others to address the meeting included Erik Jessen, Political Officer at the EU Delegation in Armenia, Stepan Grigoryan, Senior Member of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Expert Strategic Platform (under the auspices of LINKS Europe), and Dennis Sammut, Director and George Simonishvili, South Caucasus coordinator, of LINKS Europe. It was a very good and engaging meeting, also attended by representatives of various embassies, including HE Marieke Monroy-Winter, the Ambassador of The Netherlands. A similar meeting with Azerbaijani members will take place in Baku on Friday (26 September). The Armenian and Azerbaijani members have been meeting on line since April. On 27 October they will meet together in Tbilisi to finalise their work.

At the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, which was held from Wednesday to Friday (17 - 19  September), Azerbaijan’s Defence Minister, Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov, led Baku’s delegation and held high-level discussions with his Chinese counterpart on advancing joint military capabilities.

On September 8, 2025, during his address at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed the potential revival of the “3+3” format in the South Caucasus while commenting on Russia’s relations with regional countries. He noted that the initiative was initially proposed by Turkey and Azerbaijan and highlighted that it is also supported by Iran, signaling broader regional backing. Lavrov further referenced the trilateral agreement between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia on restoring transport links and welcomed the ongoing process of normalization between Armenia and Turkey.

The prospect of peace in the South Caucasus may finally be within reach. Following the high-profile meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House as facilitated by U.S. President Donald Trump on 8 August, hopes are rising that Yerevan and Baku could soon sign a long-anticipated peace treaty. That breakthrough has already been welcomed internationally, sparking renewed movement on the Armenia–Türkiye track as well. Opening the Armenian-Türkiye border has long been a policy objective for successive governments in Yerevan.

The agreements reached in the US-mediated summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington on August 8 are poised to fundamentally reshape the region's future. Particularly, the deal concerning the Zangezur corridor – rebranded as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – holds significant geopolitical importance. If implemented, the TRIPP agreement would deal a severe blow to the regional standing of Russia and Iran. More importantly, it would pave the way for a strategic U.S. presence in this critical geography. This outcome represents a success that few would have predicted for the United States, especially for the Trump administration, given the region's notoriously complex and volatile geopolitics.

Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, down but not out following military defeat and political upheaval, has staked his future on reaching what would prove to be a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But with public trust at an all-time low, disillusionment among the electorate could make this the most unpredictable vote since independence was declared in 1991. Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, its first regularly scheduled national vote since April 2017. In this analysis for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that "ten months before the vote, the outcome still remains difficult to predict. Though it still seems most likely that the incumbent will win, a great deal will also be determined during the official campaign period itself, and new developments on the ground. If peace with Azerbaijan is finally within reach, and there are signs that this is the case, it will be difficult for voters to reject stability instead of insecurity and the further risk of war. Ultimately, the 2026 election will determine not just who governs Armenia, but whether the country can finally emerge from decades of conflict and semi-regional isolation, or if it is destined to remain trapped by it." He adds, "that might prove enough to sway even reluctant support for Pashinian at the ballot box. The opposition has still yet to offer any viable alternative – or even one at all."

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, held on August 31–September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China, brought together leaders of the 10 member states, as well as representatives from over 20 countries and 10 international organisations. The summit resulted in the adoption of the Tianjin Declaration and the SCO Development Strategy until 2035, outlining key directions for cooperation and security. Armenia officially announced its intention to join the SCO on July 3, 2025, emphasising its commitment to the organisation’s core principles, territorial integrity, non-use of force, and inviolability of borders. Azerbaijan submitted its application later, in August. Currently, the process of admitting Armenia and Azerbaijan to the SCO is in the preliminary co-ordination stage, involving the attainment of partner status with the prospect of transitioning to full membership in the future.