Region

South Caucasus

The South Caucasus – a region encompassing Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - is one of strategic importance, not only for adjacent countries, such as Turkiye, Russia, Iran and the Central Asian states, but also for neighbours such as the European Union and the GCC states, and globally for the United States, India, China, Pakistan and Japan.

commonspace.eu team brings decades of experience of working in the South Caucasus and we are pleased to share our insights with our loyal readers through the website, and the sister newsletter, Caucasus Concise.

Editor's choice
Opinion
What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

The agreements reached in the US-mediated summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington on August 8 are poised to fundamentally reshape the region's future. Particularly, the deal concerning the Zangezur corridor – rebranded as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – holds significant geopolitical importance. If implemented, the TRIPP agreement would deal a severe blow to the regional standing of Russia and Iran. More importantly, it would pave the way for a strategic U.S. presence in this critical geography. This outcome represents a success that few would have predicted for the United States, especially for the Trump administration, given the region's notoriously complex and volatile geopolitics.
Editor's choice
Analysis
Despite disillusionment, Pashinyan favourite to win crucial 2026 vote in Armenia

Despite disillusionment, Pashinyan favourite to win crucial 2026 vote in Armenia

Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, down but not out following military defeat and political upheaval, has staked his future on reaching what would prove to be a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But with public trust at an all-time low, disillusionment among the electorate could make this the most unpredictable vote since independence was declared in 1991. Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, its first regularly scheduled national vote since April 2017. In this analysis for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that "ten months before the vote, the outcome still remains difficult to predict. Though it still seems most likely that the incumbent will win, a great deal will also be determined during the official campaign period itself, and new developments on the ground. If peace with Azerbaijan is finally within reach, and there are signs that this is the case, it will be difficult for voters to reject stability instead of insecurity and the further risk of war. Ultimately, the 2026 election will determine not just who governs Armenia, but whether the country can finally emerge from decades of conflict and semi-regional isolation, or if it is destined to remain trapped by it." He adds, "that might prove enough to sway even reluctant support for Pashinian at the ballot box. The opposition has still yet to offer any viable alternative – or even one at all."

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Editor's choice
Opinion
Opinion: The South Caucasus is no longer Russia’s backyard

Opinion: The South Caucasus is no longer Russia’s backyard

For decades, Russia has stood at the centre of the South Caucasus’ security order. No peace deal, no war settlement, no major infrastructure project could be imagined without Moscow’s involvement. Yet this year, for the first time in Azerbaijan’s modern history, that assumption has been openly challenged. A series of diplomatic clashes between Baku and Moscow, followed last week by the U.S.-mediated summit in Washington, show that Azerbaijan is willing to confront Russia more directly than ever before, and that the South Caucasus may now be shifting away from Moscow at an accelerated pace.
Editor's choice
Opinion
Opinion: Turkish policy in the South Caucasus and relations with Russia

Opinion: Turkish policy in the South Caucasus and relations with Russia

Turkey-Russia relations are typically based on compartmentalization. They simultaneously compete and cooperate in various regions, separating the areas in which their interests are overlapping from those where they are in competition. This concept was the base of their competing relations in Syria until the demise of Assad regime in 2024, and mutual interactions in post-Gaddafi Libya.
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Opinion
Opinion: People-to-People Contact Remains Absent in Armenia–Azerbaijan Normalisation

Opinion: People-to-People Contact Remains Absent in Armenia–Azerbaijan Normalisation

“You must be glad to be here,” the bartender told my friend, a journalist for a major international media outlet just arrived that evening in Yerevan from Baku via Tbilisi. He raised an eyebrow in response as the bartender slowly poured our drinks. “Why?” he asked, clearly confused. “Because Azerbaijanis are Muslims, they don’t drink, and there are no bars in Baku,” she replied, somehow absolutely convinced that she was correct. The exchange was almost comical, but revealed something deeper. Three decades of conflict had turned former neighbours into strangers. In Tbilisi, where ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis live side by side, it would be met with ridicule. Only last October I sat at a table where the vodka flowed as a local Armenian sang in Azerbaijani and ethnic Azerbaijanis expressed their appreciation in Armenian.
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News
Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan hold important trilateral meeting

Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan hold important trilateral meeting

Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan held important trilateral meetings in the Turkmen city of Turkmenbashi on Friday, 22 August. Joint development of deposits on the Caspian shelf and cooperation in the field of energy exports, including renewable sources, were discussed. The talks came in the framework of the visit to Turkmenistan of President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Shovkat Mirzizoyev of  Uzbekistan who were hosted by the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (Senate) of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who is a former president and the father of the current president, Serdar Berdimuhamedov. Azerbaijani media noted that during the meeting Uzbekistan hailed a scheme to export green electricity to Europe as promising, while Turkmen officials signaled a new openness to ideas long discussed in Brussels and Ankara, to build a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, a project that has been under discussion for more than 30 years.