South Caucasus

Even though many believed a second Trump presidency was unlikely or even impossible, his re-election last November demonstrated how many people prefer to favour dreams over reality, transforming fears into self-fulfilling prophecies. This is a situation that can best describe how Track II diplomacy in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been conducted over time. As a result, there is little to no agreement between the sides, the blatantly obvious is ignored, and meetings become performative at best or simply a continuation of the conflict at worst.

The trials of former Armenian separatist leaders in Baku mark a long-overdue moment of accountability for decades of aggression, occupation, and destruction in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. The proceedings in the Baku Military Court are more than a legal exercise – they are a public affirmation of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over its internationally recognized territory, a sovereignty that Armenia sought to undermine for over 30 years through both overt and covert support for the separatist regime. Courtroom testimonies of the former separatist leaders have reinforced what Azerbaijan has long maintained: Armenia was not a bystander but the architect of the separatist military apparatus that inflicted immense suffering on Azerbaijanis.

The European Union is prepared to take further action against the Georgian government, including sanctions, to hold those responsible for violence against protesters accountable, according to a statement by the EU press service on Wednesday. In the statement, the EU said it has taken into account the decision by the Baltic states to impose sanctions against Georgian Dream on the basis that the ruling party's actions are aimed at violating fundamental rights and freedoms and further reducing the space for civil society to operate.

61 per cent of Georgians believe that the country’s integration into the European Union would have a positive impact on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations according to a new study by the Caucasus Research Resource Center on conflicts in Georgia. Additionally, 56 per cent think that NATO membership would also be a positive development. When it comes to Georgia’s rapprochement with Russia, 31 per cent of respondents believe it would have positive consequences. The study, “Conflicts in Georgia: Perceptions, Attitudes, and Expectations”, was commissioned by the Institute for Nationalism and Conflict Studies, the Levan Mikeladze Foundation, and the Caucasian House and conducted by the Caucasus Research Resource Center in 2024.

Badra Gunba has won a presidential election in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, state media said on Sunday, months after his predecessor was driven from office following protests over an investment deal with Russia. Gunba, currently acting President, took almost 55 per cent of the vote in Saturday's election in the Russia-backed territory, ahead of opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba on just under 42 per cent, Abkhazian state news agency Apsnypress reported, citing preliminary results from the electoral commission. Reports indicate that 70 per cent of the population took part in the elections - 100,412 people.

The European Union will not suspend  educational exchange and mobility programs for Georgian students, despite the suspension of funding for initiatives that directly benefit the Georgian government, the EU press office confirmed in Brussels.

The past five years have marked a growing Gulf economic presence in the South Caucasus. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have expanded their regional footprint through equity investments in Azerbaijan and Georgia’s transport and renewable energy sectors. Armenia has been a weak link in interregional chains due to conflict with Azerbaijan and its isolation from regional connectivity frameworks. Yet recently, Yerevan managed to establish profitable trade links to the Gulf, largely thanks to Western sanctions on Russia. The South Caucasus trio sees financial flows from the Gulf as necessary for successful economic diversification. For the Gulf countries, the South Caucasus provides an alternative market for strategic investments, which aligns with their long-term goals of projecting geo-economic influence and boosting trade.

Maka Botchorishvili, the Foreign Minister of Georgia, on Wednesday praised her country’s “strategic partnership” with Turkey as being “based on friendship and strong mutual respect”, following a meeting with her Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara. In her comments, she highlighted the partnership was “further reinforced by continuous political dialogue and high-level engagements”. 

Speaking at a press conference after the 4th Meeting of EU-Armenia Parliamentary Partnership Committee in Yerevan, MEP Nils Ušakovs said that the process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union will require significant reforms over a long time. Ušakovs, co-chair of the committee, said that the reforms will strengthen the country and enable it to make more confident decisions regarding its future.