Russia

Three-way negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States opened in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, November 10, marking the resumption of direct peace talks since 28 February. The two-day discussions, mediated by Washington, aim to identify possible pathways towards ending the war, which has continued for nearly five years following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The negotiations come amid persisting disagreements over territorial concessions, Ukraine's future security arrangements and the role of European countries in determining the continent's security framework. The talks began with consultations between Ukrainian and American representatives and officials from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the European Commission. Ukraine's chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said the participants would coordinate their positions before the subsequent trilateral discussions with Russia. Kyiv's delegation is also expected to include presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, while Moscow's team is led by Vladimir Medinsky, a long-standing Kremlin aide. Washington is represented by presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is attending. Territorial disputes remain the principal obstacle to a settlement. Moscow demands that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, four regions Russia declared annexed in September 2022 despite never establishing full control over them. Russia also insists that Kyiv abandon its NATO membership ambitions and accept restrictions on its military capabilities. Ukraine rejects these conditions, arguing that territorial concessions would reward Russian aggression and leave the country vulnerable to further attacks. According to a statement made by Zelenskyy on X, Kyiv will propose de-escalation measures and seek an agreement on arranging a future meeting between the Russian, Ukrainian and American leaders. Meanwhile, a senior US official reportedly indicated that both sides had demonstrated limited flexibility over territorial questions, although no details were provided. Post-war security guarantees are closely linked to the territorial negotiations. According to US media reports, Washington and Moscow have discussed arrangements potentially modelled on NATO's Article 4 and Article 5, covering security consultations and collective defence. Other proposals reportedly include reviving the NATO-Russia Council, suspended since 2022, and establishing a mechanism allowing sanctions against Moscow to be reinstated if it violates a ceasefire. (click image to read more)

Mertz surprise visit to Kyiv, and increased German support for Ukraine, is a potential game-changer, writes Dennis Sammut, in this week's "Monday Commentary". German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, made a surprise visit to Ukraine over the weekend. He visited the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on Sunday and called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop his "barbaric attacks" and end what he called a "senseless war." This was the fourth such visit to Ukraine by a German chancellor since the full-scale Russian invasion began in February 2022. Merz visit to Kyiv this weekend came at a very significant moment, and was full of symbolism, but not only. It was very significant also in terms of content. Merz arrived in Kyiv by train early on Sunday morning, accompanied by the German Economy Minister and a delegation of leading figures from German business, including executives from Siemens Energy, Hensoldt, Diehl Defence and Quantum Systems. "If Russia is not stopped, it will turn its war machine against us sooner or later," Merz said upon arrival. During the visit of the German Chancellor air raid sirens blared across the Ukrainian capital throughout the morning, as Kyiv's mayor announced one of the city's bridges had been hit by a Russian drone. Sunday's visit comes just days after Merz had assured Ukraine of Germany's support, despite isolated resistance and criticism at home. Merz said earlier  'If Germany wavers, Europe wavers;  if Europe wavers, Ukraine wavers” The German broadcaster Deutche Welle said that  “Germany remains Ukraine's most important backer, both militarily and financially, but state elections in September saw significant gains for parties at both ends of the political spectrum who are critical of expenditure on Ukraine: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the socialist Left Party in Berlin.” Speaking before his visit to Ukraine, Merz called out in particular "the AfD and their Russian backers" and promised Ukraine that Germany would not be divided.” Merz visit and Germany’s stronger support is a game-changer The visit of the German Chancellor to Ukraine this weekend came  at crucial moment for Ukraine and for Europe. Germany's strong and tangible support for Ukraine can be a game-changer, (click image to read the Commentary in full)