Russia

Russia and Ukraine agreed to what US envoy Jared Kushner described as the largest prisoner exchange of the war following two days of US-mediated negotiations in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11. However, the discussions produced limited progress towards a broader peace agreement, with territorial disputes and disagreements over Europe’s security architecture remaining unresolved. The trilateral talks, led by US President Donald Trump’s envoys Kushner and Steve Witkoff, brought together senior Russian and Ukrainian delegations for the first negotiations of this format since February. The proposed humanitarian exchange could involve 1,000–1,200 prisoners from each side, although the final figures had yet to be confirmed. Kushner said the agreement could help reunite families, build trust and generate momentum towards peace. Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia described the discussions as difficult, citing the Russian delegation’s “very, very strict directives”. Nevertheless, he reported progress on security guarantees for Ukraine, expressing hope that an agreement could be reached before the end of the year. Ukrainian delegation head Rustem Umerov similarly acknowledged that substantial work remained but said opportunities existed to continue negotiations. Territorial disagreements remained a major obstacle. Moscow continues to demand control over the entirety of the Donbas, including territories held by Kyiv, as well as additional areas in southern Ukraine. Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, reiterated Moscow’s position, stating that “every inch of our land will be returned to Russia”. Kyiv, meanwhile, maintains that a ceasefire should precede negotiations over territorial arrangements. Disagreements also extended to the future of European security. Medinsky called for a “new, modern Yalta”, referring to the 1945 settlement between the Allied powers, and argued that negotiations should address the wider European security order. European governments have expressed concern that Washington and Moscow could discuss arrangements affecting NATO’s presence in eastern Europe without their participation. Representatives from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the EU attended meetings alongside the Abu Dhabi negotiations, although they did not participate directly in the trilateral discussions. On Thursday (November 12), Kushner and Witkoff arrived in Moscow for discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They are subsequently expected to travel to Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European partners. Zelenskyy, who expressed hope for a possible diplomatic opening before 2027, stressed the importance of obtaining concrete proposals from Washington. Meanwhile, military operations continued alongside diplomatic efforts. Russia launched drone attacks against Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions, while Ukraine struck the Ust-Luga port in Russia’s Leningrad region, a significant hub for Russian energy exports. Russia and Ukraine agreed to what US envoy Jared Kushner described as the largest prisoner exchange of the war following two days of US-mediated negotiations in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11. However, the discussions produced limited progress towards a broader peace agreement, with territorial disputes and disagreements over Europe’s security architecture remaining unresolved. The trilateral talks, led by US President Donald Trump’s envoys Kushner and Steve Witkoff, brought together senior Russian and Ukrainian delegations for the first negotiations of this format since February. The proposed humanitarian exchange could involve 1,000–1,200 prisoners from each side, although the final figures had yet to be confirmed. Kushner said the agreement could help reunite families, build trust and generate momentum towards peace. Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia described the discussions as difficult, citing the Russian delegation’s “very, very strict directives”. Nevertheless, he reported progress on security guarantees for Ukraine, expressing hope that an agreement could be reached before the end of the year. Ukrainian delegation head Rustem Umerov similarly acknowledged that substantial work remained but said opportunities existed to continue negotiations. Territorial disagreements remained a major obstacle. Moscow continues to demand control over the entirety of the Donbas, including territories held by Kyiv, as well as additional areas in southern Ukraine. Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, reiterated Moscow’s position, stating that “every inch of our land will be returned to Russia”. Kyiv, meanwhile, maintains that a ceasefire should precede negotiations over territorial arrangements. Disagreements also extended to the future of European security. Medinsky called for a “new, modern Yalta”, referring to the 1945 settlement between the Allied powers, and argued that negotiations should address the wider European security order. European governments have expressed concern that Washington and Moscow could discuss arrangements affecting NATO’s presence in eastern Europe without their participation. Representatives from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the EU attended meetings alongside the Abu Dhabi negotiations, although they did not participate directly in the trilateral discussions. On Thursday (November 12), Kushner and Witkoff arrived in Moscow for discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They are subsequently expected to travel to Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European partners. Zelenskyy, who expressed hope for a possible diplomatic opening before 2027, stressed the importance of obtaining concrete proposals from Washington. Meanwhile, military operations continued alongside diplomatic efforts. Russia launched drone attacks against Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions, while Ukraine struck the Ust-Luga port in Russia’s Leningrad region, a significant hub for Russian energy exports.

Trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States resumed in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, November 11. The second day of meetings follows an initial round of discussions that received positive assessments from Kyiv and Washington but exposed continuing divisions over the terms of a potential peace agreement. The talks, brokered by the United States, address prisoner exchanges, security guarantees and possible de-escalation, while territorial disputes remain the central obstacle to an agreement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Tuesday's discussions as “constructive and quite substantive”, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to them as “very productive”. US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff reportedly told participants that Washington had narrowed the differences between the two sides. Kushner also raised the possibility of developing a new European security framework. However, the US administration has provided few details about concrete progress. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the prospect of a ceasefire, accusing European countries of seeking a temporary truce to facilitate the deployment of foreign troops to Ukraine. He also dismissed the presence of European representatives in Abu Dhabi, saying: “Well, they flew to Abu Dhabi. Let them sit there.” European officials have held separate consultations with Ukrainian and American representatives but remain excluded from the trilateral negotiations, despite Washington signalling that their participation could eventually be considered. Territorial control seems to be an issue that the parties are unable to resolve. Russia continues to demand the entire Donbas region, including territories it has not captured, while Ukraine refuses to relinquish its land. A senior US official indicated that both sides had demonstrated some flexibility privately, but stressed that territorial arrangements could not be resolved before Ukraine's post-war security guarantees were established. Simultaneously, military escalation continues. On November 11, Ukrainian Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi reported Russian strikes against six major electricity substations across four central regions, as well as railway infrastructure. Russia also reported targeting Ukrainian military-related facilities and a cargo vessel near Odesa. Meanwhile, NATO fighter jets were activated following overnight drone alerts in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. European divisions over continued assistance to Kyiv further complicate the diplomatic environment. Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz faced opposition from Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary and Bulgaria after proposing to link the EU's next long-term budget to additional financial support for Ukraine. Conversely, Denmark announced a €643 million military assistance package and €20 million for Ukraine's energy sector on Tuesday. As negotiations continue, the contrasting positions of Moscow, Kyiv and their Western partners highlight the considerable obstacles to reaching a settlement. The discussions have opened diplomatic channels, but fundamental disagreements over territory, security arrangements and Europe's future security architecture remain unresolved.