Russia

Russia has warned the Armenian government of severe economic consequences if it pursued plans to move towards membership of the European Union. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk insisted on Wednesday that the EU accession process will mark the beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc that gives Armenia tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market. “The outcome here is obvious: opening markets with the European Union will mean closing markets with the Eurasian Economic Union,” Russian news agencies quoted him as telling journalists.

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was downed by a missile on 25 December fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defence system which was brought from Syria to Russia, according to reliable sources familiar with the investigation quoted exclusively by Azerbaijan-based international news channel AnewZ and reported for the first time in Europe by Euronews. Electronic warfare systems were deployed against the Azerbaijani aircraft on 25 December as it was on its approach to land in Grozny, leading to severe malfunctions in its control systems before its crash near Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, AnewZ reported based on its sources.

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was downed by a missile on 25 December fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defence system which was brought from Syria to Russia, according to reliable sources familiar with the investigation quoted exclusively by Azerbaijan-based international news channel AnewZ and reported for the first time in Europe by Euronews. Electronic warfare systems were deployed against the Azerbaijani aircraft on 25 December as it was on its approach to land in Grozny, leading to severe malfunctions in its control systems before its crash near Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, AnewZ reported based on its sources.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia has decided to adopt a foreign policy that is balanced between relations with the European Union and Russia. He added that balanced relations are also being created at the regional level notably with Iran, by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey and concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said this approach is not easy but also not impossible adding that Armenia is being transparent with all its international partners about its intentions. “Yes, we have decided to get closer to the European Union, but we are very intensively trying to share our position with Iran and Russia and with all our partners”, Pashinyan stated.

n Baku, flags on official buildings and embassies of foreign countries flew at half mast Thursday (26 December) as Azerbaijan observed a day of mourning following the crash of an AZAL plane which resulted in the death of 38 passengers and crew. The plane was on  a scheduled flight from Baku to Grozny, but was diverted to Kazakhstan because of bad weather. President Ilham Aliyev was informed of the crash whilst on his way to St Petersburg where he was to attend the informal CIS summit hosted by President Putin. He ordered his plan to return to Baku to lead the Azerbaijani response to the crash. Azerbaijani media speculated about the causes  of the crash, with some outlets saying that it was hit by a Chechen missile whilst approaching Grozny.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev exchanged brief words during a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan. 

On 18 October, the 3+3 regional cooperation platform which hypothetically includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia “plus” three surrounding powers (Türkiye, Iran, and Russia) convened the third meeting at the ministerial level, though again without the participation of Georgia. Hosted by Türkiye in Istanbul, the meeting took place amidst a sensitive security situation in the wider region due to the ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, the potential Iran-Israel war, the upcoming fateful parliamentary elections in Georgia, and certainly, the persisting challenges in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

On Tuesday (8 October), Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed at the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to withdraw Russian border guards from the Armenian-Iranian frontier as of January 2025 and replace them with Armenian border guards. In addition, the Turkish border will be guarded by both Russian and Armenian guards.

Alexander Bortnikov, the director of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), has claimed that Armenia is postponing peace talks with Azerbaijan in order to deploy a NATO contingent in the South Caucasus, in line with a Western agenda. These remarks have been refuted by Peter Stano, a spokesman for the European External Action Service (EEAS). Stano claims that the West strongly supports the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan and has no intention of establishing a NATO presence in the region.