"There are some misconceptions that Georgia can be transformed into some kind of Eastern European, especially Ukraine. This is more of a pipe dream rather than possible reality. Georgia will not be turned into a South Caucasian variation of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia, built on pro-Western Georgian nationalistic sentiments and highly anti-Russian attitudes," writes Archil Sikharulidze for in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "Georgia already has the best possible status-quo where Ukrainians and Russians, Azeris and Armenians, Turks and Armenians live, cooperate and build a better future together. This is what Georgia’s Western allies must pursue as this is the best way to keep Georgia on the “right path”, and is in the best geopolitical interests of Washington as well as Brussels. The best thing Georgia can give the West and the East meanwhile is a land of stability, a gateway to both worlds."
Nowadays, Georgia is in a significant political crisis. The ruling Georgian Dream party is hoping to win the 2024 parliamentary elections while local opposition leaders and elite non-governmental sector representatives are working hard in Brussels and Washington to prove that Bidzina Ivanishvili is the “sole” reason for Georgia’s “fall to autocracy”. Arguably, thanks to the Russian-Ukrainian war those who observe Georgia in the US and EU are more inclined to support radical views in Tbilisi, calling on the government to be more principled in its actions against Russia.
There is a well-embedded view among some significant European and American political actors that the pro-Russian government of Georgian Dream lead by Russian-oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili is fighting against pro-Democratic forces of Saakashvili, the only real political brand among Georgian political opposition. This opinion is however mainly a product of political rivalry and propaganda rather than a real reflection of the situation in the country.
Unfortunately, all involved actors try to represent political processes in the country according to their own views, values and geopolitical agenda. The worst thing is that Georgian elites in Tbilisi are so focused on pleasing Georgia’s friends abroad that no-one asks what Georgian people really want. Receiving “holy” EU candidate status became an obsession when local political, business, non-governmental and academic elites started really believing that this “label” would save Georgia. Current Georgian elites are simply “gone with Europe” just as they were “gone with NATO MAP” for the last decade, arguing that the only thing that mattered was to receive the membership action plan. Fascinatingly, no-one speaks about this anymore.
But apart from this “candidate status” madness, there are few issues that must be addressed seriously to preserve the stability and democratic development of Georgia.
Western policy in Georgia
First of all, it is dangerous to continue current American and European policy in Georgia. Tbilisi’s strategic allies in the West have managed to contribute to the anti-Western sentiments better than the whole propaganda machine of the Kremlin. Unfortunately, representatives of the Western world in collaboration with local opposition and the elite part of the non-governmental sector currently speak unto the wider Georgian population through threats and allegations. Arguments such as “if we don’t do this the EU will punish us by stripping us of our European future”, are probably the most commonplace for the last few years among mainly Tbilisi-based political and non-political actors.
And, even if this approach might work in Tbilisi where almost all political and non-political actors are directly financed by the same American and European agencies, outside the capital city it is a completely different story. In this dimension, the US ambassador’s aggressive and directives-based rhetoric only leads to irritation and comparison with the Russian Empire and the Soviet-era “namestnik” (deputy) period. It is time for Georgia’s western partners to return to a diplomatic narrative and not to repeat Russian mistakes.
At the time of the collapse of the USSR, Georgia had the closest ties with Moscow. Its elites were deeply attached to Russia and no-one could have imagined that these ties would have been challenged. But thanks to Moscow’s decision to apply a “carrot and stick” approach, not taking into consideration local mentality, the Georgian people in full cooperation with its elites initially detached themselves rather than simply cutting off relations with Russia. Russian political elites managed to destroy 200 years of Georgian-Russian relations in just two decades.
Thus, there must be a clear understanding that Georgia wants and needs a strategic partnership with the West and not yet another political “stick” disguised as “supervision” from metropoles such as Brussels or Washington. The reason why Georgians are motivated to drift away from the Kremlin, in essence, was and precisely is to break this “metropole-periphery” relationship.
EU communications in Georgia are misguided
One more serious challenge for the EU is its representation among the wider Georgian population. Thanks to deeply misguided communications from EU representatives in Georgia there are, arguably, only two issues that are mainly attached with Georgia’s “EU future”: LGBTQI+ rights and the “save Misha” project.
At some point a citizen of Georgia not well aware of the political processes on the ground may think that the EU is all about conducting annual gay-pride celebrations in Tbilisi, and ensuring the safety, prosperity of Mikheil Saakashvili and his colleagues. And while some once again may try to assure that “gay pride” in Tbilisi is an expression of freedom, the majority of Georgian people cannot understand why former high officials should be “pardoned” and helped to “survive”, especially when some of them were directly mentioned in ECHR judgements as “possible perpetrators” and others even lost cases at the same court.
It is time for EU members to revise the way they communicate with wider Georgian society and stop only focusing on Tbilisi-based elite groups, thinking that they represent the whole nation. After all, Georgia’s non-governmental sector has a profoundly low trust score in comparison to Western investments.
Meanwhile, bringing back Saakashvili and his former allies to political life on behalf of “pluralism”, “media freedom” and other “democratic values” is actually probably the worst scenario for Georgian democracy. Saakashvili and his followers may sound like pro-democratic, pro-Western thinkers, but in practice are characterised by a mainly brute force approach focused on quick modernization via the restriction of freedoms and liberties. For these people freedom of speech and thought is applicable only to those who share their values; for others, there are political, social, economic, academic and other types of persecutions. That is why by the end of the Saakashvili regime there was almost no critical thought on political, media, business, NGO and academic agendas.
Like in the Communist era, the real Georgian by then was a supporter of Saakashvili, his political ideology, and a “fanatic” of NATO/EU integration. Any aberration from this new “dogmatism” was equal to Soviet-era counter-revolutionary activities, resulting in at least “social cancellation”. As famous Russian poet Alexander Pushkin wrote in the Gypsies: “You are not born for the savage life, You want freedom only for yourself.”
One must be careful while pushing the idea of the so-called “right” and “good” Georgians i.e. pro-Western; and all other undesired elements as “agents of the Kremlin”. It will only deepen the political and social crisis in the country. Georgians have already experienced such attempts of political and social cleansings when self-proclaimed “morally superior” groups conducted “trials of dignity”, leading to nation-wide uncontrolled prosecutions and assassinations. The same concept was also promoted by Saakashvili when he referred to all others as “flushed away”.
Georgia will not turn into a South Caucasian variation of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia
There are some misconceptions that Georgia can be transformed into some kind of Eastern European, especially Ukraine. This is more of a pipe dream rather than possible reality. Georgia will not turn into a South Caucasian variation of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia, built on pro-Western Georgian nationalistic sentiments and highly anti-Russian attitudes. Furthermore, Georgia is not Ukraine – there will be no new “Euromaidan” or “revolution of dignity”. If it were to happen, it would lead to a civil war that the state has already gone through in the 90s, barely escaping total collapse.
Georgia already has the best possible status quo where Ukrainians and Russians, Azeris and Armenians, Turks and Armenians live, cooperate and build a better future together. This is what Georgia’s Western allies must pursue as this is the best way to keep Georgia on the “right path”, and is in the best geopolitical interests of Washington as well as Brussels. The best thing Georgia can give the West and the East meanwhile is a land of stability, a gateway to both worlds.
