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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Russia, Ukraine and US Begin Talks in Abu Dhabi

Russia, Ukraine and US Begin Talks in Abu Dhabi

Three-way negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States opened in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, November 10, marking the resumption of direct peace talks since 28 February. The two-day discussions, mediated by Washington, aim to identify possible pathways towards ending the war, which has continued for nearly five years following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The negotiations come amid persisting disagreements over territorial concessions, Ukraine's future security arrangements and the role of European countries in determining the continent's security framework. The talks began with consultations between Ukrainian and American representatives and officials from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the European Commission. Ukraine's chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said the participants would coordinate their positions before the subsequent trilateral discussions with Russia. Kyiv's delegation is also expected to include presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, while Moscow's team is led by Vladimir Medinsky, a long-standing Kremlin aide. Washington is represented by presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is attending. Territorial disputes remain the principal obstacle to a settlement. Moscow demands that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, four regions Russia declared annexed in September 2022 despite never establishing full control over them. Russia also insists that Kyiv abandon its NATO membership ambitions and accept restrictions on its military capabilities. Ukraine rejects these conditions, arguing that territorial concessions would reward Russian aggression and leave the country vulnerable to further attacks. According to a statement made by Zelenskyy on X, Kyiv will propose de-escalation measures and seek an agreement on arranging a future meeting between the Russian, Ukrainian and American leaders. Meanwhile, a senior US official reportedly indicated that both sides had demonstrated limited flexibility over territorial questions, although no details were provided. Post-war security guarantees are closely linked to the territorial negotiations. According to US media reports, Washington and Moscow have discussed arrangements potentially modelled on NATO's Article 4 and Article 5, covering security consultations and collective defence. Other proposals reportedly include reviving the NATO-Russia Council, suspended since 2022, and establishing a mechanism allowing sanctions against Moscow to be reinstated if it violates a ceasefire. (click image to read more)
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Lasha Darsalia:  "Today there are opportunities to have the South Caucasus as a real region, and especially a region where processes are based on cooperation and mutual respect"

Lasha Darsalia: "Today there are opportunities to have the South Caucasus as a real region, and especially a region where processes are based on cooperation and mutual respect"

"Years ago the South Caucasus was not a political concept. It could be a geographical concept, anything, but not a political region. Maybe we are still not there yet. But definitely today there are opportunities to have the South Caucasus as a real region, and especially a region where processes are based on cooperation and mutual respect. This, at least, is how Georgia sees the South Caucasus and how we aim for this region to be. As independent countries for the last thirty years, we have been looking for this momentum, and Georgia sees it as an opportunity to build truly mutually beneficial cooperation inside our region.. This was stated by Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister, Lasha Darsalia, speaking in Yerevan, at the opening of the 3rd South Caucasus Dialogue Forum, on Friday, 6 November 2026. (click image to read speech in full)
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Magdalena Grono: "For the EU, the importance of the South Caucasus is uncontested"

Magdalena Grono: "For the EU, the importance of the South Caucasus is uncontested"

For the European Union the importance of the region is uncontested. It has been so for a very long time, but now the broader geopolitical challenges in the wider neighbourhood are highlighting that importance. We are ever more committed to continuing deep cooperation in bilateral ties, but also specifically regionally. As for the conflict resolution processes, in the Armenia–Azerbaijan context they are bilaterally driven, but there is a lot of space for supporting initiatives in very practical ways, and this is indeed what we're trying to do". This was stated by the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Ambassador Magdalena Grono at the start of the 3rd South Caucasus Regional Dialogue Forum, on Friday,6 November 2026. (Click image to read her intervention in full) Around sixty participants, including Ambassadors, officials, experts and civil society activists from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and from the international community, participated in the 3rd South Caucasus Dialogue Forum, held in hybrid form in Yerevan, and on line, on Friday, 6 November 2026. The keynote speaker was the Deputy Foreign Minister of Georgia, Lasha Darsalia.