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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Interview
Thursday Interview: Dr. Jamie Shea

Thursday Interview: Dr. Jamie Shea

Tensions are rising in Iran and across the Middle East, uncertainty hangs over Donald Trump’s commitment to the Euro-Atlantic security umbrella, and war continues along Europe’s eastern border. Against this backdrop, commonspace.eu spoke this week with Dr. Jamie Shea, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), about what lies ahead. He held several senior positions during a 38-year career at NATO, and represented the Alliance on the international stage as its spokesperson during the 1999 Kosovo War, when he briefed the international press throughout NATO’s air campaign against Yugoslavia. Since retiring from NATO in 2018, he has continued his work as a professor, lecturer, speaker and adviser on European and transatlantic security affairs. Dr. Shea discusses the strategic consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine for NATO’s future, the need for the Alliance to adapt to a rapidly changing battlefield shaped by drones and technological innovation, and the importance of cooperation between NATO and the European Union in strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities.  He argues that instability in the Middle East could reshape the strategic balance for Europe: “The one who smiles is Vladimir Putin, because an oil price of over $100 a barrel for a long period of time is going to refill the Russian war chest, as Putin funds a lot of his Ukraine war effort from his energy resources. You can see that the Americans have already lifted sanctions on Russia to allow Russia to export oil to India to keep international markets flowing. This is what we call ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’. Yes, it helps the situation in the Gulf temporarily. It removes pressure on the oil market. But the impacts of the war will also mean more inflation, higher energy prices, and higher gas prices in Europe. You are then going to get a lot of European countries saying, ‘well, sorry, but I can’t spend 5 percent of GDP on my defence any longer.’” To read the full interview, click on the image above.