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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Monday Commentary: Europe goes to the Caucasus, but that is just the beginning of the story

Monday Commentary: Europe goes to the Caucasus, but that is just the beginning of the story

Dozens of European presidents, prime ministers and other senior leaders, descended on Yerevan last week, to participate in the 8th Summit of the European Political Community (EPC). For a day or two, you could not go anywhere in the centre of the Armenian capital without bumping into a European leader and his entourage. The following day, it was time for bilateral relations, and the first EU-Armenia summit took place with the participation of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Antonio Costa, president of the European Council. This was a more substantial affair, during which the EU heaped praise, and some financial support, for Armenia, and importantly highlighted how it proposed to engage with Armenia in the future. Armenia had made the journey from being a Russian outpost, which it was until 2018, to becoming the EU’s favorite in the South Caucasus – a “status” achieved not least because of Azerbaijani aloofness, and Georgia’s bizarre anti EU trajectory. Moscow, Tehran and Washington watched events in Armenia carefully. For Armenia, Azerbaijan remains the elephant in the room. Pashinyan has gone along way to redefine Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. This is still “work in progress”. But the EU needs to engage carefully and sensitively, but not meekly, on this issue too. Kaja Kallas the EU High Representative, went to Baku immediately after Yerevan, to emphasise this inclusivity. On the same day (6 May), EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Magdalena Grono spoke about the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and the role of external players during a panel discussion held within the framework of the Yerevan Dialogue international forum 2026. EUSR Grono noted that the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process has been a “wonderful and powerful” one, adding that it has received important support from external partners. She expressed hope for new opportunities for regional cooperation when the time is right. She also stressed the importance of addressing humanitarian issues. In Yerevan last week the European Union and wider Europe assembled in the EPC, showed its commitment to Armenia and the South Caucasus region. It was necessary. It was timely, but it was also just a start. In its approach to the South Caucasus over the last thirty years Europe has been largely reflexive: responding to events. It has lacked a strategic approach and a regional vision. Both require patience, perseverance and flexibility, but in the end they make policy towards the region more sustainable. In the South Caucasus, people have long memories, and the EU has no institutional memory. It fails to build on its own success, and it fails to learn from its mistakes. The region is too important and is too close to Europe either to be ignored, or to be approached lightly. The Armenian parliamentary elections on 7 June will define Armenia’s future, as well as that of the region. In many ways the EPC Summit and Armenia-EU summit were a loud statement of support for the current Armenian trajectory. However in the end it is up to the Armenian people to make a decision. Europe must support the democratic process that makes this possible, and after 7 June must be ready to stand with Armenia in case Moscow and Tehran do not like the result. (click image to read the full commentary)
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European Green parties invite UK to rejoin the EU, 10 years after Brexit

European Green parties invite UK to rejoin the EU, 10 years after Brexit

The European Green Party, bringing together all Green parties across the EU, is the first European political family to make an explicit political invitation for the UK to rejoin, 10 years after Brexit.  The Green party leaders, united on Friday at the Green Leadership Council in Brussels, and stated in a common Declaration that the way forward for the EU is to enlarge to the East and the West, and to roll out a radical move towards renewable energy to ensure European autonomy.  Vula Tsetsi, Co-Chair of the European Green Party, said:  'On the eve of Europe Day, we European Greens are clear: the European Union must enlarge and its doors should be re-opened for the United Kingdom. If, in the future, the people of the UK choose this path, we are ready to welcome them back. Ten years after Brexit, it is increasingly clear that Brexit weakened both the UK and the EU. Any political process must begin with a political signal, and today, the European Greens are the first European political family to say clearly that our door is open to a future return of the UK in the EU. We now call on the other European political families to follow.’ The European Green Party fully supports enlargement across Europe, from the Western Balkans and Ukraine to any European country that chooses a shared democratic future within the European Union, as a more united Europe is a stronger Europe. Ciarán Cuffe, Co-Chair of the European Green Party, added:  'Europe’s dependence on oil and gas is keeping it weak, exposed and vulnerable. If we are serious about peace, security, and independence, we must break free from fossil fuels and go all in on renewable energy. Wind and solar are not just climate solutions, they are the foundation of a stronger, independent and ultimately free Europe. Investing in renewables will protect us from the price spikes linked to fossil fuel.' (click the image to read the full report).