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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
After a lull of one month, US-Iran military confrontation resumes

After a lull of one month, US-Iran military confrontation resumes

For about one month, since July, the confrontion between the United States and Iran has largely been limited to verbal abuse and threats. This strange lull in military hostilities has now been broken. Iran says it launched missiles at two US bases in Jordan following a US attack on Larak Island in southern Iran earlier on Sunday. US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, marking the first known American attack on Iran since late July and triggering a fresh escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran said the strike killed and wounded soldiers and civilians, while the Revolutionary Guards vowed a response and later claimed attacks on US military positions in Jordan and a UAE air base. A US official confirmed that American forces targeted two Iranian launchers on Larak Island after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces were observed preparing to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command spokesman Cdr Tim Hawkins said the operation was a “limited, precise action” against minelaying forces that posed an imminent threat to the strategic waterway. The US military did not identify the target in its social media post, but a US official confirmed to Reuters that the strike took place on Larak Island. In a statement reported by Iranian news agencies on Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the combined missile and drone operation, which it called “Punishment of the Aggressor”, hit the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan. The exchange of attacks is the first flare-up in violence between the two sides since late July. The IRGC said the strikes “destroyed the technical and repair infrastructure, as well as the enemy fighter deployment sites”, inflicting significant damage. Jordan reported intercepting eight missiles soon after the IRGC announced the attack. “Air defence systems intercepted eight missiles that breached the Kingdom’s airspace at dawn today, Monday,” the Jordanian military said in a statement. No injuries were reported at either base. In a further development on Monday, the IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Fars and Mehr news agencies cited a statement from the IRGC that said that its air defences had intercepted “a long-range American MQ9 drone” over the Strait of Hormuz, which then fell into the Gulf. In his first comments since the US attack on Iran’s Larak Island, President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran was “not looking for war”, but would “never sit still in the face of any aggression” either. Pezeshkian made the comments as he was leaving for Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, to attend the summit of the heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries.
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News
LAKE ONTARIO: Now and Always

LAKE ONTARIO: Now and Always

US president, Donald Trump, has renamed Lake Ontario into Lake America, but the Canadians will have none of it. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has hit back by installing a large sign on Canada's shoreline with the message: "Lake Ontario. Now and Always." The US president signed an executive order on Thursday seeking to change its name to Lake America and has shared a series of AI-generated videos about the lake that straddles both countries. "Long before President Trump, this lake was called Lake Ontario. Long after President Trump is gone, it will still be called Lake Ontario," Ford said. The war of words was triggered after trade talks collapsed, with the US imposing new 50% tariffs on $20bn (C$28bn) of Canadian goods. Canada will implement "dollar for dollar" counter-tariffs next month. Trump said the decree was effective immediately as he signed the order to rename it Lake America. While he has broad discretion over how the US recognises landmarks, other countries are not required to follow. Canadian officials have dismissed Trump's move. On Saturday, Trump also posted several AI-generated videos on social media, with one showing him kicking over a Lake Ontario sign and replacing it with one that says: "Welcome to Lake America."
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News
Russia puts pressure on Armenia ahead of Putin-Pashinyan meeting in Bishkek next week

Russia puts pressure on Armenia ahead of Putin-Pashinyan meeting in Bishkek next week

Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan are expected to meet in Bishkek next week on the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov confirmed this according to the Russian agency, TASS. “We will have a conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Our leaders have already spoken following the elections held in Armenia, so it is fairly clear what the conversation will be about,” Ushakov said. He added that, among other issues, the leaders will discuss Yerevan’s aspiration to join the EU and its cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union. “We continue to insist that Armenia cannot aspire to EU membership while at the same time receiving enormous benefits from its cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union. This issue must somehow be resolved. And the President and the Prime Minister will undoubtedly discuss it,” Ushakov said. The meeting comes as Russia continues to put unprecedented pressure on Armenia. Using very undiplomatic language, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, on Friday (28 August), called on Pashinyan to stop shifting responsibility for Armenia's problems onto Russia and the CSTO. In 2022, the Armenian Prime Minister personally refused the deployment of the organization's mission, opting instead for Western mediation in Prague, where he officially recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, recalled the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Yerevan's attempts to blame Moscow, the church, or its own citizens for the consequences of its own decisions are shameless and contradict historical facts, Zakharova emphasized. "Everyone is to blame in your view. Only you are not to blame." "Nikol Vovayevich, elections in your country have ended. You can stop hanging noodles on the ears of your people. Gather your courage and tell the truth at least once, as it actually happened," wrote Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, addressing Nikol Pashinyan’s statements yesterday. The five-year program of the Armenian government released this week, only speaks of releations with Russia as a "partnership" and omits the previously used term "strategic alliance". Pashinyan told the Armenian parliament this week, "The events of September 2022 took place right before your eyes. A strategic partnership should mean a strategic partnership. If we write 'strategic partnership' in the document now, you will ask why Russia and the CSTO did not fulfill their security obligations in September 2022. What else do I need to tell you?"
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Opinion
What is Russia's game with Azerbaijan?

What is Russia's game with Azerbaijan?

The number of provocations against Azerbaijan in Russia is increasing. Whilst official Moscow maintains a friendly tone towards Baku, daily incidents indicate otherwise. The latest incident involved the posting of provocative images against Azerbaijan by unknown individuals in front of the guest house of the Embassy of Azerbaijan in the Russian Federation on August 27 at around noon on 27th August The incident was strongly condemned by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement issued shortly afterwards. "It is not excluded that this unacceptable provocation, in addition to serving to artificially strain Azerbaijani-Russian relations, is part of the dirty and biased campaign against Azerbaijan conducted in a number of Russian media resources in recent times. The Azerbaijani side calls on the relevant bodies of the Russian Federation to give the necessary legal assessment to such provocative actions, ensure a thorough investigation of the incident, and take necessary measures to prevent the recurrence of such cases. We expect the Russian side to fully fulfill its obligations to ensure the security of the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and its employees at the appropriate level, as well as to prevent any provocative actions that may impede the normal activities of the diplomatic mission, in accordance with the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement said. In an editorial, the influential Azerbaijani website haqqin.az stated: "What happened on August 27, around midday, outside the guesthouse of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Moscow is disgusting. Hanging insulting notes on the walls of a foreign country's diplomatic building is cowardly, dirty, and petty to the point of disgust. And note where they ended up. The guesthouse is the same mission property and is protected by the same Vienna Convention as the embassy chancery on Leontievsky Lane; this is precisely why the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry cited the convention today. The difference between the two addresses isn't legal. The difference is in who's behind the door. Diplomats are in the chancery. People in the guesthouse are in Moscow on business.  This speaks volumes about the "courage" of the perpetrators and, more accurately, about the conscience of those who sent them.' Moscow works in mysterious ways, but one must ask, what's the point?