On Saturday (28 February) the United States and Israel launched a new war, attacking Iran, even though talks between the US and Iran were on-going in Geneva, and Omani mediators thought that an agreement between the two was within reach. In the first engagement of the new war the US and Israel, targeted and killed Ayatollah Khamanei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and many other Iranian senior officials. The war has raged on for the last few days, and has spread quickly to other countries in the region. It is clear we are at the beginning of something big. This is not a local conflict. It is a conflict with global ramifications, and we are only at the start. It is very difficult to predict the future in such a volatile situation as has emerged since Saturday. There are no simple explanations or solutions. But it is likely that the Islamic Republic will endure. The system may, in order to survive, update itself. This is necessary and overdue. But it will not happen under American and Israeli aerial fire. The Gulf will never be the same again. The relations between Iran and the Gulf countries will be poisoned for a long time. Most GCC countries have the financial cushion to help them pull out of the present crises. But money on this occasion, may not be enough. The war will also impact the Trump administration. This may prove a gamble too far for the American president. But for all three, we are only at the beginning. And this story is only just starting, so in truth, anything can happen. (click the image to read the full Monday Commentary).

On 27 February 2026, the members of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Strategic Expert Platform met in Antwerp, Belgium, to assess developments in the South Caucasus following the initialling of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on 8 August 2025 at the White House. The members described the present moment as one of major importance for the region and its neighbours, urging leaders and societies alike to use the current momentum to secure long-term peace and prosperity. Established in 2024 with the support of LINKS Europe, the Platform provides a space for direct dialogue and joint analysis between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. The members also reaffirmed the importance of continued international engagement and expressed strong support for LINKS Europe’s ongoing peacebuilding work in the region. (Click on the image above for the full statement.)