Russia continues to pile pressure on Armenia. It realises it is loosing the grip that it has had on the country ever since its independence in 1991. Now, Russia is also using its influence on Iran, a country that borders Armenia, to add pressure on the government of Nikol Pashinyan. According to some Armenian media outlets Iran has demanded that security for the TRIPP project in Armenia be ensured exclusively by the Armenian Armed Forces or the armed forces of a third country already present on Armenian territory. The only such third country at the moment is Russia. Iranian authorities fear that American forces can be deployed to protect the TRIPP route and this could result in the encirclement of Iran. Yet the deployment of US troops has never been under consideration. The Armenian authorities have assured that the implementation of the TRIPP project will not create any challenges or threats for Iran. This latest development follows a tense meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Armenia prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan in Bishkek. The Russian president was transmiting "hot and cold" in Bishkek. With Pashinyan, the atmosphere was certainly cold. This politicial pressure comes on top of a series of economic measures that Moscow has ordered that try to stifle the Armenian economy. But Pashinyan and his government remain defiant. The governent plan for 2026-31 speaks about a balanced foreign policy. Russia's primary role in Armenia is over.This politicial pressure comes on top of a series of economic measures that Moscow has ordered that try to stifle the Armenian economy. But Pashinyan and his government remain defiant. The governent plan for 2026-31 speaks about a balanced foreign policy. Russia's primary role in Armenia is over. (click image to read the analysis in full)

Last week I visited Baku, Azerbaijan. My visit was relatively short, but very intensive, and had many meetings with stakeholders and colleagues. When I arrived in Baku first time in 1996,  Azerbaijan was a different country: weak, poor, and shaken by defeat in war. For thirty year the Karabakh issue dominated the agenda: the political agenda but also the popular mindset. Now, thirty years later, Azerbaijan has returned to Karabakh, and peace with Armenia is on the horizon. It is a new era for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, for the South Caucasus, but also for Europe.  But we cannot be complacent: the Peace agreement has been initialed but not signed; borders remain closed; TRIPP is ambitious but remains an idea; and there are spoilers who want to turn the clock back. We must not allow them, and in this Europe and Azerbaijan must work together. Europe’ vanguard organization is the European Union – it is a free union of 27 member states; it is a strong global economic force, and increasingly a diplomatic and military force too. But it remains “work in progress” and can often appear dysfunctional. It often lacks collective and institutional memory. In its dealings with Azerbaijan the EU has made many mistakes – not least opening the delegation here late – in 2008. It sometimes appears condescending. Some utterances from the European Parliament and from some quarters in some member states are not understandable even for me. They irritate the Azerbaijanis, but serve no other purpose But Azerbaijan has also not handled relations with the EU well. It has failed to respond when the hand of friendship reached out; and it confused irritating actions, sometimes by well-meaning people; sometimes by outright spoilers, with strategic action. In short, EU-Azerbaijan relations have suffered from a lack of proper dialogue. This dialogue must be frank, honest and multi-faceted involving different segments of society on both sides.   Is Azerbaijan Europe? When Azerbaijan applied to join the Council of Europe in the 1990s, there were some who opposed, saying this was not Europe. I was one of the people who argued that Armenia and Azerbaijan may be on the periphery of the continent geographically, but were European in essence. Certainly their elites. During the discussion on 4 September in Baku, my friend Farhad Mammedov, mentioned that Azerbaijan is not interested in joining the EU, and was now close to the Central Asian countries in the 5 plus 1 format. Neither things mean that Azerbaijan is not Europe. There are several European countries that are not in the EU, and do not want to be, for example Norway and Switzerland. Iceland has recently voted to stay out of the EU. The UK was a member and left. Europe is bigger than the EU, and the holding of the European Political Community summit in Baku in 2027 proves that. Despite all the rhetoric, I never heard the president of Azerbaijan  saying that Azerbaijan is not Europe, nor have I heard any European president say it either. Not wanting to join the EU and forging close relations with neighbouring regions does not make Azerbaijan any less European. It is only logical that when Europeans talk to Azerbaijan they talk like family. The conversation is often frank. It must also be honest, and Europeans need always to remember this too. A frank, honest and multi-faceted dialogue A frank, honest and multifaceted dialogue will contribute to relations between Azerbaijan and the rest of Europe: it will avoid misperception, which unfortunately is very common on both sides; it will provide a forum where problems can be discussed and resolved, and it will increase mutual trust, so that together common problems can be addressed. (click image to read the full Monday Commentary)

Europe and Azerbaijan Seek a New Foundation for Relations — Between Gas, Peace and Human Rights (click image to read the full analysis)