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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Opinion
Ilham Aliyev speaks about relations between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, and says the good personal relations with Uzbek president Mirziyoyev are crucial

Ilham Aliyev speaks about relations between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, and says the good personal relations with Uzbek president Mirziyoyev are crucial

President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, gave an extensive interview to the Uzbekistan National News Agency (UzA), in which he outlined how relations between the two countries are evolving and developing. On the eve of his state visit to Uzbekistan Aliyev said "the sincere friendship, mutual respect and trust that exist between the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, my dear brother, Shavkat Miromonovich Mirziyoyev, and myself play a special role in strengthening Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan brotherhood, bringing interstate ties to their current level and developing our alliance". Aliyev also spoke about his country's relations with Central Asia.  "The cooperation format formerly known as the “C5” format has in fact evolved into the “C6” format, and regional dialogue and strategic partnership have taken on new substance and a broader scope. Azerbaijan’s full-fledged participation in this format demonstrates the strategic importance our country attaches to its relations with Central Asia. The discussions held within the framework of the Consultative Meetings help further strengthen mutual trust among the countries of the region, identify new areas of cooperation and implement important initiatives for regional development. Azerbaijan’s participation in this format also demonstrates our country’s contribution to strengthening interregional cooperation. The dialogue and cooperation mechanisms established within the framework of this platform serve not only to develop interstate relations, but also to promote peace, stability and sustainable progress throughout the Eurasian space. Thus, the comprehensive cooperation developing between Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia is a strong example of strategic partnership based on mutual respect, trust and common interests." (click the image to read the interview in full)
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Analysis
UN Security Council to discuss Georgia at the request of the European members

UN Security Council to discuss Georgia at the request of the European members

The United Nations Security Council will discuss the situation in Georgia today (Wednesday, 20 August). The Council’s European members (E5)—Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, and the UK—requested the meeting to mark the 18th anniversary of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.  Several European members of the Council are expected to reaffirm their support for Georgia’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders. They are likely to condemn Russia’s actions during the 2008 conflict and its continued military presence in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia and call on Russia to implement the 2008 ceasefire agreement. These members may also express opposition to steps that they regard as altering the status quo or leading to greater Russian integration with the two areas. In a 7 August statement marking the 18th anniversary of the conflict, the EU expressed concern about “increasing Russian attempts” to de facto integrate Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia into Russia’s regulatory and security space. The statement maintains that these measures, such as the “Agreement on Deepening Allied Cooperation” signed between Moscow and Tskhinvali on 9 May, and the appointment of a Russian official as “Acting President” of South Ossetia, have no validity under international law. European members may also raise human rights concerns—including with regard to restrictions on freedom of movement and other measures affecting conflict-affected communities—and call for unhindered access for international human rights and humanitarian actors. They are also expected to emphasise the need for renewed dialogue and may highlight the EU’s mediation role, including through its co-chairmanship of the GID and the work of the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM). In a 9 July statement following the latest GID round, the EU reiterated its support for the discussions and called for all participants, including Russia, to commit to the non-use of force and for the establishment of a verification mechanism. Other Council members are expected to emphasise dialogue and de-escalation, as well as the need to reach a peaceful settlement through existing diplomatic mechanisms. Such members may underscore the importance of confidence-building and the continued functioning of the GID. Russia is likely to reject European members’ characterisation of the 2008 conflict and reiterate its own account of the events. In an 8 August press release marking this year’s anniversary, the Russian Foreign Ministry maintained that Georgia initiated the hostilities against South Ossetia, defending Russia’s military response. Moscow is also likely to reiterate its call for legally binding commitments on the non-use of force between Tbilisi and the authorities in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia, which it stated would provide a “robust guarantee against a recurrence” of the events of August 2008. (click image to read more)
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GULF CRISIS
Former Iranian leader Khatami rejects calls for conflict with US, as Iran's leadership seeks new regional security order

Former Iranian leader Khatami rejects calls for conflict with US, as Iran's leadership seeks new regional security order

Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami has warned that some in Iran believe the nation’s “life and survival lie in war,” openly questioning the logic behind that stance, according to Iran’s Fars news agency. “Some say: ‘First, we will teach America a lesson here, then we will go to the heart of America and fight it there.’ But what reality is this based on?” Khatami asked. “My feelings were also wounded when they killed our commander, and one’s eyes could almost weep blood. But governing a society cannot be based on raw emotion,” he added. “We must consider what serves the ultimate interests of the country, the system, and Islam." In the meantime, Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is currently in Baghdad, says his visit to Iraq is intended to strengthen what he called a “new regional order” without foreign interference. Speaking at the site where former General Qassem Soleimani was killed, Ghalibaf said: “Today’s visit to Iraq is aimed at strengthening the new order in the region and accelerating mutual cooperation among all countries of the region, without the intervention of foreign powers.” He added that Islamic countries in the region should seek to establish “deep security interactions and ties” supported by sustainable economic cooperation. “The Islamic Republic of Iran declares its full readiness to realise this regional model,” he added.