Parliamentary Elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia next Sunday (7 June). The Armenians will vote for a new parliament, and the leader of the winning party will become the prime minister, and will form the government. The incumbent, Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in a peaceful “velvet” revolution in 2018, is defending his eventful record against a spirited, well resourced, opposition. The Armenian people have a choice in the coming election, and a clear one. It is important to state clearly, and at the outset, that it is up to the Armenian to make this choice. Outsiders should not interfere. The next Armenian government will have important choices to make, at both the domestic and international level, and it must have the clear mandate, and the legitimacy of a popular vote, to deliver these choices. But it seems that this does not fit the needs of Putin’s Russia. Over the last days Russia has openly interfered in Armenian politics, using the leverages it accumulated over the years. Putin has made it clear that he will not tolerate an independent minded Armenian government. Armenia was since its independence in 1991, a compliant “partner” of Russia, and fitted into Vladimir Putin’s grand strategy of surrounding Russia with countries, that whilst nominally independent, depended on Russia for their defence, economy, foreign policy, and indeed for their survival. Any attempts at independent thinking or action was to be crushed. Look what happened to Ukraine. Armenia was told bluntly that the same could happen to it. Armenia’s big “sin” was that it expressed the wish to join the European Union. Everyone knows that this was an aspiration, rather than a decision. EU membership takes years, decades even, to negotiate. If the process starts officially now, and it has not, it will probably take twenty years to become a reality. But Putin is not taking chances. He will not allow Armenia to escape Russian clutches, even if that escape is only aspirational. Russia is trying to intimidate the Armenian people, prior to Sunday’s vote., accompanied by a barrage of disinformation emanating from Moscow, This process must be watched carefully. Western leaders have visited Armenia in the last month, for the EPC Summit, for the Armenia-EU summit, and most recently last week the short visit of US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Their presence in Yerevan was a message to Moscow: we will not allow you to do in Armenia what you did in Ukraine. Sunday, the Armenian people, will make their decision. They should be allowed to make that decision freely, and without pressure. Everyone should thereafter respect that decision. (Click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full, or listen to the audio).

Ahead of key parliamentary elections,scheduled to be held in Armenia on Sunday, 7 June, Russia continues to attempt to put pressure on the Armenian Government led by prime minister Nikol Pashinyan. On 30 May, Russia recalled its Ambassador to Yerevan for consultations. A terse statement, published on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said, "The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Armenia , S.P. Kopyrkin, has been summoned to Moscow for consultations in connection with the steps taken by the Armenian leadership to move closer to the European Union, which are detrimental to cooperation within the EAEU." This followed a statement issued the day before, by the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that challenges the Armenian trajectory towards approximating to the European Union. Vladimir Putin is undertood to have personally pushed the other four EAEU leaders to issue the statement, which said: "Taking into account the significant risks to the economic security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the Union) arising in connection with the preparation of the Republic of Armenia for accession to the European Union, as well as the need to prevent the associated damage to the member states of the Union: decided that the members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council from the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation will report at the next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in December 2026 on the possible consequences of the suspension of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union with respect to the Republic of Armenia. We share the position on the need to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Armenia as soon as possible on joining the European Union or continuing to be part of the Eurasian Economic Union."

The leaders of the states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEAS) issued a tough statement warning fellow-member state Armenia of the consequences of its desire to join the European Union. The stark, sharply worded,  warning, comes days before crucial parliamentary elections in Armenia, scheduled for 7 June. The full statement said, “We, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation, Taking into account the actions of the Republic of Armenia aimed at joining the European Union, including the approval in 2025 by the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia and the signing by the President of the Republic of Armenia of the Law of the Republic of Armenia "On the Start of the Process of Accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union", as well as the confirmation by the European Union of the European aspirations of the Government of the Republic of Armenia, expressed in the joint declaration following the first Armenia-European Union summit, adopted on 5 May 2026, Taking into account the significant risks to the economic security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the Union) arising in connection with the preparation of the Republic of Armenia for accession to the European Union, as well as the need to prevent the associated damage to the member states of the Union: decided that the members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council from the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation will report at the next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in December 2026 on the possible consequences of the suspension of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union with respect to the Republic of Armenia. We share the position on the need to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Armenia as soon as possible on joining the European Union or continuing to be part of the Eurasian Economic Union. Astana, May 29, 2026” A meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council was held in Astana, Kazakhstan, on May 29, 2026. The meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in a restricted format was attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko , Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev , Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov , Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, and Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission Bakytzhan Sagintayev. From the Russian side, the meeting was also attended by Deputy Prime Minister and member of the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission Alexey Overchuk and Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov . The heads of delegations from EAEU observer states, including President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev , Vice President of Cuba Salvador Valdés Mesa, Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade of Iran Mohammad Atabak, and CIS Secretary General Sergei Lebedev, joined the expanded meeting . Following the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, a number of documents were signed .

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia are no longer being discussed only within Armenia itself. Today, the Armenian vote is being closely watched in Azerbaijan, Russia, Türkiye, across Europe, and in the United States. This is not simply another domestic electoral cycle in a small South Caucasus country. It is an event capable of influencing the future geopolitical architecture of the entire region. At the same time, its significance should neither be exaggerated nor underestimated. For the first time in Armenia’s modern political history, an incumbent leader is approaching elections with an agenda centred on peace and normalisation rather than conflict management or historical mobilisation. This distinction is important. The 2021 elections were not about peace. In the aftermath of the 2020 Karabakh war, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was effectively seeking a mandate connected to the preservation of the Karabakh issue and to a broader post-war political framework shaped by remedial secession narratives. The current political moment is fundamentally different. What is now emerging is a debate not only about political leadership, but about Armenia’s entire geopolitical worldview and strategic self-perception. (To read the full commentary, click on the image above.)