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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
US attacks Iran again, and Iran retaliates with attacks on targets across the Gulf

US attacks Iran again, and Iran retaliates with attacks on targets across the Gulf

Iran has declared the Straits of Hormuz closed,and fired at a Cypriot-flagged tanker trying to cross. This triggered a US attack on Iran. In response Iran fired missiles and drones at US targets across the Gulf. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it closed the waterway until further notice and warned of a severe response to US "aggression", according to state media. Within hours of the US strikes, the IRGC said they had hit a US base in Jordan, while the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain were all responding to missiles and drones from Iran. It comes after incidents earlier this week in which three commercial tankers were attacked, prompting an exchange of strikes with the US. US Central Command (Centcom) said it launched a third round of strikes this week after the IRGC "blatantly attacked" a Cyprus-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Centcom said the MV GFS Galaxy was "unable to continue its journey" as a result of significant damage to the engine room. One civilian crew member was missing, it said. It said US strikes hit 140 Iranian military targets, including missile and drone sites, communication networks, and coastal surveillance locations. The UK's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said it had been informed by military authorities that the crew of the vessel were forced to abandon ship and were in a lifeboat.
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GULF CRISIS
Trump says ceasefire with Iran is "over", but the two sides will still meet in Oman on Saturday

Trump says ceasefire with Iran is "over", but the two sides will still meet in Oman on Saturday

US president Donald Trump has said that the ceasefire with Iran is "over". But the two sides are still expected to meet on Saturday (11 July) in Oman. According to reports Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and two people who have been heavily involved in Middle East talks - special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner -  will be in Saturday's negotiations. The US wants Iran to publicly state that the Strait of Hormuz is open and to pledge to stop firing on commercial ships as part of negotiations due to be held in Oman on Saturday. US media cited unnamed officials as saying Tehran had privately acknowledged to President Donald Trump's advisers that the shooting at ships was a mistake, though the Iranians reportedly pinned the blame on a rogue internal group. Trump has said both sides have agreed to continue talks despite this week's fighting over the Strait of Hormuz, which the White House saw as a violation of the ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said his country had "kept its word" on the ceasefire, saying on X the US had violated the deal. In June the US and Iran signed a ceasefire agreement where Iran would, in part, give safe passage to commercial ships. Tehran said that an "errant" sect of hardliners was trying to undermine negotiations by firing on the commercial ships, senior US officials told CBS News, the BBC's US partner. One official told the TV network: "They [the Iranians] came back to the table and said, 'We screwed up. We made a mistake. Let's keep talking.'" In a briefing for reporters on Friday, the US officials said a message to Tehran's leadership had been conveyed through regional mediators demanding Iran release a statement declaring the strait open and that it will stop shooting at commercial ships, according to multiple media reports. "They're either going to give us that statement or we're not having a good outcome for them," said one official, quoted by Reuters news agency. Meanwhile, a delegation from Qatar travelled to Iran on Friday for talks aimed at defusing tensions and easing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social earlier on Friday: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks.' "We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!"
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GULF CRISIS
Mediators try to salvage US-Iran agreement

Mediators try to salvage US-Iran agreement

Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have been desperately trying to salvage the US-Iran agreement, outlined in a Memorandum of Understanding, that over the last few days looked increasingly as if it was falling apart. After Iran tried to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing at ships that had ignored its claims, the US bombed targets in Iran. Iran subsequentlky bombed US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan. But the last twelve hours have been quieter, and observers believe that the mediators - Pakistan and Qatar have persuaded the two beligerents to stop shooting and return to diplomacy. Fighting immediately impact the precarious oil market. It was announced that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has hit its lowest level since 1983, due to growing tensions with Iran and global supply concerns. President Trump acknowledged to reporters on Wednesday that any time the US strikes Iran, oil prices jump. And they did. The reserve fell by 6.2 million barrels in the week ending July 3 to 319.5 million barrels – its lowest level since the Reagan administration. In the Gulf, there is increasing concern on the fragility of the US-Iran agreement.Zeidon Alkinani, founding director of the Arab Perspectives Institute, says Gulf states are conducting efforts to ensure diplomacy ends the US war on Iran as soon as possible. “In the long term, we might be seeing different schools of thought and imagining a future relationship with Iran, a future relationship with the US, or imagining new transnational alliances from the regional perspective,” Alkinani told Al Jazeera. Considerations would include how to achieve more deterrence for Iranian and Israeli expansionism, and how to curb too much reliance on the United States, he added. “Others might want to continue things as they were to ensure that the conflicts were to end,” said Alkinani.