OPINION: Ivlian Khaindrava - "Georgian expert: Armenia and Georgia are simply doomed to develop and deepen their relations"

18 January 2013

An interview of the head of the Republican Institute of Georgia, Ivlian Khaindrava, with Arminfo news agency.

Mr Khaindrava, how do you assess the current situation in the Armenian-Georgian relations taking into consideration the media hype regarding the last statements by Georgia's foreign minister and Patriarch Ilia the Second, about the necessity of settlement of the Karabakh conflict within the frames of the principle of territorial integrity?

I calmly treat this hype, as the church does not settle political issues in secular states and Patriarch's viewpoint (if it was expressed) cannot affect the process around Nagornyy Karabakh. As for the statement by Georgia's foreign minister made in the European Club under the parliament of Latvia, it was not beyond the frames of the standard diplomatic vocabulary, as I know.

Do these statements reflect the impartial situation in the Armenian-Georgian relations, or are the fruit of the mass media fantasy?

Coming of the new political force to the power in Georgia caused certain nervousness within the country as well as among its neighbors and partners. This is clear, as premier Ivanishvili and the ruling coalition are taken by many people like a "dark horse". However, there are all the grounds to suppose that foreign political course of Georgia will not radically change and the Euroatlantic integration will gain new impulse. Anyway Georgia and Armenia are simply doomed to develop and deepen their relations, though it is no secret that their positions differ in certain issues. This is reflected, for instance, when voting in UN and other international organizations. However, the political elites did not dramatize such a circumstance long ago. By the way, the Armenian businessmen and ordinary citizens of Armenia are directly contacting with Georgia more and more. This is evidence of the fact that they feel themselves rather comfortably in our country.

May the created situation affect the visit by Georgia's Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili to Armenia?

The forthcoming visit by Prime Minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili to Armenia is one of his first foreign visits like a premier. This is evidence of the dynamically developing Armenian-Georgian relations. Unfortunately, we have got opponents of further development of the Armenian-Georgian relations not only outside our countries but also within them. However, they cannot disrupt the grounds of the big policy.

What key issues will be discussed during Ivanishvili's visit to Armenia?

The visit by Georgia's Prime Minister Bedzina Ivanishvili to Armenia on 17 January is first of all targeted at establishment of personal knowledge with his Armenian counterparts. This is always necessary and important from the point of view of formation of the mutual trust regime for the future years. I think that pragmatic leaders will easily find common ground. They will touch on all the issues of common interest and fix the lines of the coinciding interests. I hope the needed attention will be drawn to the driving of both countries to the free trade agreement with European Union, as Tbilisi as well as Yerevan have been working in this direction. In this context, we noticed the decision of Armenia about unilateral cancel of the visa regime with the countries of the EU, after which Georgia and Armenia formed a single non-visa area for the Europeans.

In his last interview the second president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan said that opening of the Abkhazian railway by the new authorities of Georgia will positively affect the economic situation in Armenia. How do you assess such an opportunity?

The new authorities of Georgia have initiated opening of the Abkhazian railway thanks to the relevant political will and readiness to discuss practical aspects of the issue. However, the authorities of Sukhumi quickly passed up Tbilisi's proposal, Moscow's reaction was obscure and Baku's - extremely nervous. It is clear, that in such a situation only Georgia cannot open the railway traffic through Abkhazia, which is beneficial to Armenia. But this issue will return to the regional agenda sooner or later.

Why Vahagn Chakhalyan's name was not among the political prisoners which were amnestied?

I think that there were certain grounds for Vahagn Chakhakyan not to be amnestied. You may address to relevant instances regarding the possibility of his setting free on parole.

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Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

19 October 2026

Making peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan was never going to be simple, nor easy, nor quick. It is taking time, writes Dennis Sammut in this Monday Commentary. “There is a sense of realism coming from the leaders of the two countries – President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and prime minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, that frankly, is necessary and welcome”, he writes. At a time when conflicts are raging all over the world – from Ukraine to the Gulf, from Africa to South Asia, the prospect that Armenia and Azerbaijan had finally, after decades of conflict that left thousands of dead and many more displaced, decided on embarking on a journey of peace was welcomed. Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be top-down up to a point. Both leaders have spent political capital preparing for a peace deal. But both are aware that their people are not ready for peace yet. In fact, in Armenia, most of the elite are negative toward a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan needs time to persuade his countryfolk. That is why 2031 is realistic. Ilham Aliyev runs a tighter shop, but he is also not immune to public opinion. Every time someone hits a landmine in Karabakh, which unfortunately happens often, peace comes into question. Which is why Aliyev chooses to sound hardline, more often than not. In pursuing the peace agenda, both Aliyev and Pashinyan need to proceed cautiously. But they are right in making peace the central issue in their agenda. It is the main issue, and the one that will define them in history. So forward, cautiously but resolutely! In pursuing the peace agenda, Aliyev and Pashinyan need to be supported clearly and unambiguously. There are too many people in Baku and Yerevan who are sitting on the sides, waiting. The international community is not doing enough. It is time to be counted. Otherwise, the spoilers will win, and the region will go back to its bad habits. (Click the image to read the full commentary).

Dennis Sammut

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European Union and Canada agree on "Alliance for the future" at milestone Montreal summit

31 October 2026

António Costa, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, represented the EU at the 21st EU-Canada summit, which took place in Montreal on 29 and 30 October 2026. Prime Minister Mark Carney represented Canada. The summit marked a major milestone in EU-Canada relations, paving the way for an even broader and deeper political partnership. Leaders took stock of progress made since the previous EU-Canada summit and issued a joint statement launching an Alliance for the Future. Building on their longstanding strategic partnership, the alliance aims to deepen cooperation and create a common prosperity and economic security space. This is a moment to act with clarity and ambition. By aligning more closely – economically, technologically and strategically – Canada and the EU are building an Alliance for the Future based on trust and shared values that meets the scale of today's challenges and opportunities and will reinforce the freedom, prosperity and safety our citizens expect and deserve. We are stronger together. Building on their existing Strategic Partnership Agreement, the EU and Canada will deepen political engagement and coordination on shared priorities. Leaders welcomed the increasingly frequent exchanges with Canadian ministers at relevant Council and ministerial meetings. The EU and Canada will build on these exchanges through regular summits, joint ministerial meetings and cooperation committees. The partners will work to define the concept of an ever-closer association of Canada to the EU, short of full membership, by the 2027 EU-Canada summit. (click image to read more)

Last week I visited Baku, Azerbaijan. My visit was relatively short, but very intensive, and had many meetings with stakeholders and colleagues. When I arrived in Baku first time in 1996, Azerbaijan was a different country: weak, poor, and shaken by defeat in war. For thirty year the Karabakh issue dominated the agenda: the political agenda but also the popular mindset. Now, thirty years later, Azerbaijan has returned to Karabakh, and peace with Armenia is on the horizon. It is a new era for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, for the South Caucasus, but also for Europe. But we cannot be complacent: the Peace agreement has been initialed but not signed; borders remain closed; TRIPP is ambitious but remains an idea; and there are spoilers who want to turn the clock back. We must not allow them, and in this Europe and Azerbaijan must work together. Europe’ vanguard organization is the European Union – it is a free union of 27 member states; it is a strong global economic force, and increasingly a diplomatic and military force too. But it remains “work in progress” and can often appear dysfunctional. It often lacks collective and institutional memory. In its dealings with Azerbaijan the EU has made many mistakes – not least opening the delegation here late – in 2008. It sometimes appears condescending. Some utterances from the European Parliament and from some quarters in some member states are not understandable even for me. They irritate the Azerbaijanis, but serve no other purpose But Azerbaijan has also not handled relations with the EU well. It has failed to respond when the hand of friendship reached out; and it confused irritating actions, sometimes by well-meaning people; sometimes by outright spoilers, with strategic action. In short, EU-Azerbaijan relations have suffered from a lack of proper dialogue. This dialogue must be frank, honest and multi-faceted involving different segments of society on both sides. Is Azerbaijan Europe? When Azerbaijan applied to join the Council of Europe in the 1990s, there were some who opposed, saying this was not Europe. I was one of the people who argued that Armenia and Azerbaijan may be on the periphery of the continent geographically, but were European in essence. Certainly their elites. During the discussion on 4 September in Baku, my friend Farhad Mammedov, mentioned that Azerbaijan is not interested in joining the EU, and was now close to the Central Asian countries in the 5 plus 1 format. Neither things mean that Azerbaijan is not Europe. There are several European countries that are not in the EU, and do not want to be, for example Norway and Switzerland. Iceland has recently voted to stay out of the EU. The UK was a member and left. Europe is bigger than the EU, and the holding of the European Political Community summit in Baku in 2027 proves that. Despite all the rhetoric, I never heard the president of Azerbaijan saying that Azerbaijan is not Europe, nor have I heard any European president say it either. Not wanting to join the EU and forging close relations with neighbouring regions does not make Azerbaijan any less European. It is only logical that when Europeans talk to Azerbaijan they talk like family. The conversation is often frank. It must also be honest, and Europeans need always to remember this too. A frank, honest and multi-faceted dialogue A frank, honest and multifaceted dialogue will contribute to relations between Azerbaijan and the rest of Europe: it will avoid misperception, which unfortunately is very common on both sides; it will provide a forum where problems can be discussed and resolved, and it will increase mutual trust, so that together common problems can be addressed. (click image to read the full Monday Commentary)

Dennis Sammut

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Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”

21 September 2026

There are two early 20th-century tunes that mark foreign attempts to occupy and “pacify” Yemen. The Scottish tune “The barren rocks of Aden” marks the mobilisation of Highland soldiers, enlisted to be deployed to the Yemeni port of Aden, that in 1837 became the last colony to be incorporated into the British Empire. The tune talks of the harshness of the terrain, but is celebratory, It was even played as a farewell tune to Sir William Luce at the parade in Sharjah celebrating his end as “British Viceroy” in the Middle East in 1966. The second tune is an Anatolian lament. As Ilker Sezer reminded us this weekend, in his weekly feature on “Turkiye Today”, it “mourns the tragic fate of Ottoman soldiers dispatched to the harsh, remote deserts of Yemen during the fall of the empire, young men who marched away from their villages and never returned home. Most of their names, and numbers, were never recorded. Yet, their fate left a mark on the Turkish psyche.” Subsequent invaders have discovered that Yemen is a grave that cannot be overcome by the strength of modern technology, and that whilst Yemeni society is splintered and divided, building a reliable alliance with Yemeni factions is difficult. These are the harsh lessons facing Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom faces its biggest challenge in its modern history. The leadership of the Kingdom now has to respond decisively. At stake is their very credibility. This is likely to be a long and messy conflict. Saudi military objectives need to be focused: to box in the Houthis rather than destroy them. This is likely to include: (a) regaining territory lost on the Red Sea coast; (b) control over Bab el Mandeb Strait; (c) some kind of cordon sanitaire on the Saudi-Yemeni border; and if things go well (d) the capture of Sanaa. All this would not eliminate the Houthi problem, but it will contain it. In the end the Saudis will have to continue managing Yemen with a mixture of carrot and stick. For the moment, the stick is likely, but the carrot cannot be forgotten either. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)

Dennis Sammut

OPINION: Ivlian Khaindrava - "Georgian expert: Armenia and Georgia are simply doomed to develop and deepen their relations"

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Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

European Union and Canada agree on "Alliance for the future" at milestone Montreal summit

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Monday Commentary: European-Azerbaijan relations need an intensive and multifaceted dialogue that is frank and honest

Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”