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Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi killed in helicopter crash

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi killed in helicopter crash

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday night at the age of 63. This was reported by Iranian state television. After a multi-hour search, the helicopter wreckage was found near the village of Tavil in Iran's East Azerbaijan province, a mountainous area where there was bad weather at the time of the crash. A period of five days of mourning has been declared in Iran, during which time the country's vice president has been appointed interim president.
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Commentary
The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

Vladimir Putin was sworn in for another six-year term as the President of Russia on Tuesday, 7 May. With Putin having been the undisputed leader of Russia for decades, continuity, one would have thought, was assured. Yet Putin himself, on Monday (13 May) speaking at a meeting of the Security Council spoke of “a new political cycle” in Russia. Some of the first decisions of the re-elected president give us a sense of what is to come. First, there was the surprise dismissal of Sergei Shoigu as Minister of Defence, and his transfer to be the Secretary of the Security Council. There had been speculation for some time that Shoigu’s time at the Ministry of Defence was up. But what was surprising was the appointment of Andrei Belousov, former Deputy Prime Minister – an efficient technocrat with an economic background to replace him. That the Russian Ministry of Defence has needed a shake-up for some time has been abundantly clear, but Andrei Belousov’s mission seems to be more ambitious than that: He is tasked with transforming the Russian Defence Ministry into a modern institution that can embrace new ideas and techniques, and that has enough flexibility to conduct the sort of hybrid warfare that is likely to be the order of the day going forward. So despite all of Putin’s bravados about the Russian nuclear arsenal, it seems he is putting his faith in a more innovative, agile, and versatile force. Then on Monday, 13 May, Putin held his first meeting of the Security Council since his inauguration. The Kremlin website only referred to one item out of apparently several that were discussed, namely relations with the post-Soviet Republics, a subject much close to the heart of the president. Putin reiterated that this was a priority in foreign policy. Putin said, “we should pay even more attention to this area in the new political cycle in Russia and discuss the way we will organise this work from all points of view, including organisational”. So it appears that there is new thinking in this sphere, details of which is not yet known.
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A new era of peace in the Eastern Mediterranean

A new era of peace in the Eastern Mediterranean

A ground breaking meeting between the President of Turkiye, Recip Tayip Erdogan, and Greek Prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, on Monday (13 May) is being hailed as the dawn of a new era of peace in the Eastern Mediterranean. Mitsotakis was in Ankara as the guest of the Turkish leader. There are no unsolvable problems between Athens and Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said, as he and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis praised the state of relations between the two neighbors while pledging to further enhance bilateral ties. "We had a constructive and positive meeting and discussed problems in Türkiye-Greece relations; We will solve problems through dialogue," Erdoğan said at a joint news conference with Mitsotakis. Erdoğan said that Ankara and Athens are committed to resolving issues via "cordial dialogue, good neighborly ties, and international law" as outlined in last year's Athens Declaration on Friendly Relations and Good-Neighborliness. Improvement of bilateral relations with Türkiye is yielding concrete and positive results, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said "I can only begin by thanking you for the warm hospitality today in Ankara, it was a fourth meeting in the last 10 months, which I believe proves that the two neighbors can now establish this approach of mutual understanding, no longer as some exception, but as a productive normality that is not negated by the known differences in our positions," Mitsotakis said. He said bilateral relations have been progressing, as agreed by the parties, on three levels: political dialogue, positive agenda and confidence-building measures. "I believe that it is a positive development in a difficult time for international peace, but also for the broader stability in our region," the Greek leader said.

Focus on Central Asia

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Commentary
Kyrgyz film, Kyz Ala Kachuu, wins Busan International Film Festival award, shedding light on the still deeply entrenched practice of bride kidnapping in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz film, Kyz Ala Kachuu, wins Busan International Film Festival award, shedding light on the still deeply entrenched practice of bride kidnapping in Kyrgyzstan

Kyz Ala Kachuu is an obvious and unapologetic form of protest by Mirlan Abdykaylkov against the archaic and violating nature of the bride kidnapping traditions in Kyrgyzstan, writes Silvan Lochteken in this commentary for commonspace.eu. Its success at the Busan International Film Festival not only brings the international spotlight on the controversial practice, but reignites the contested debate on bride kidnapping that has polarized the Kyrgyz public for decades.
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Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: Why Central Asia matters

Monday Commentary: Why Central Asia matters

Very often, Central Asia is referred to as Russia’s back yard, even though today the region feels more like China’s front garden. But whilst the two “inseparable” friends, compete for influence and resources, the five Central Asian countries have set on a course to integrate themselves in global processes, break out of their geographic - and more importantly their geo-political constraints - and deliver better for their people. In this week's Monday Commentary on commonspace.eu, Dennis Sammut says that the Central Asian states have been reaching out to the EU and the US, whilst domestically some of them have embarked on deep reforms considered all but unimaginable until recently. The visit of European Council president Charles Michel to the region on 27-28 October marked a high point in a new phase in the relationship between the EU and Central Asia. In Kazakhstan, Michel not only met the Kazakh leadership, but also held a summit with the five Central Asian leaders in Astana, before travelling to Uzbekistan. For both the Central Asians and for the EU this is a watershed moment, and the beginning of a long journey. Europe’s approach to Central Asia needs to be respectful, both to the five countries themselves, and to their existing partners. Arrogance, even of the intellectual kind will simply backfire. But respect does not mean meekness. As a heavyweight in international relations, even if for the moment its economic weight dwarfs its political weight, the EU needs to approach Central Asia neither as a supplicant, nor as a benefactor, but simply as a reliable partner. Furthermore, this partnership needs to be diverse, multi-tiered and nuanced. It must take in relations with citizens, where Europe has much to offer both in terms of being a model, but also in terms of what it can share in areas such as education, innovation, youth welfare, women’s rights and diversity.

Voices - Opinion and analysis

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News
Taking forward the work on landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus - report issued after consultation process

Taking forward the work on landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus - report issued after consultation process

LINKS Europe has just published a report on the future of landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus based on a consultation process with stakeholders between June 2023 and February 2024. The report focuses on the regional campaign "Landmine Free South Caucasus", which was implemented from October 2018 to December 2023. A formal consultation process was held from 15 January to 15 February 2024, through an open call to which anyone could reply. In the course of the consultation process LINKS Europe held 22 in-person meetings, 12 online meetings. and received written submissions from several partners. The report makes 12 recommendations on how the work can be organised in the future.
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Bonn Dialogue Meeting calls for the theme "Climate Change, Peace and Security" to be included in the agenda of COP29

Bonn Dialogue Meeting calls for the theme "Climate Change, Peace and Security" to be included in the agenda of COP29

A dialogue meeting on the topic: “Climate Change Peace and Security – COP 29 and Beyond” was held at the Bonn University Club in Bonn, Germany, on Friday, 3 May 2024. Representatives of various state-parties to the Climate Convention and of the UN Climate Secretariat, joined participants from around 30 academic institutions, think tanks and civil society organisations to review the work done on this topic at COP28 in Dubai in December and chart a way forward for ensuring the continuation of the process at the COP29 meeting in Baku in November. At the opening session, the meeting was addressed by HE Hana al Hashemi, the United Arab Emirates COP28 Chief negotiator, HE Nigar Arpadarai, the UN High-Level Champion for COP29 in Azerbaijan, and Mr Markus Hicken, Director for Energy Foreign Policy, Climate and Security at the German Federal Foreign Office. Also speaking at the opening session was Ms Maria Paloma Noriega Jalil, representing the UN Climate Secretariat. There followed an intensive one-day of discussions on the current state of the COP process, and the on-going debate on the nexus of Climate Change, Peace and Security within the COP process. The meeting was addressed by world-class experts from leading think tanks and academic institutions, including Chatham House, the German Council on Foreign Relations, ADELPHI, the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, Heidelberg University, The Hertie School in Berlin, amongst others. The meeting positively assessed the steps taken in COP28 in Dubai in December, including the inclusion of climate change, peace and security as a theme of the meeting, the holding for the first time of a day on peace in the deliberations, and the “COP28 Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace”. It was felt that it was important that this momentum will not be lost, and similar actions are also included as part of the COP29 meeting in Baku in November. Whilst it was recognised that the nexus between Climate Change Peace and Security was now widely recognised internationally, inserting this in the COP process remained an issue under discussion. During the meeting three aspects of the Climate Change, Peace and Security agenda were highlighted, namely water scarcity; food insecurity; and landmine contamination and environmental degradation resulting from conflict. Participants called on the State Parties to the Climate Convention meeting in the context of COP29 to ensure proper discussion and action on these themes that affect millions of people and thousands of communities across the world. In his concluding remarks at the end of the dialogue meeting, HE Ambassador Elshad Iskanderov, advisor to the COP 29 presidency, said that Azerbaijan was positive to the idea of having Climate Change Peace and Security as a theme at COP29. Ambassador Iskanderov reminded that the decision to hold COP29 in Baku was taken unanimously, and was an unprecedented confidence-building measure in the context of the South Caucasus.  Azerbaijan wanted to build on what had already been achieved in Dubai. He said that these decisions did not depend on Azerbaijan alone since COP was a multilateral process where the 198 state parties had the final say. Ambassador Iskanderov underlined the readiness of the Azerbaijani COP29 presidency to continue the dialogue on this issue with academia, think tanks and civil society as the preparations for COP 29 progress. He highlighted the fact that the discussion needs to focus not only on the potential that climate change will fuel more conflict and insecurity, but also on the impact of conflicts on climate change and environmental degradation Concluding the Bonn Dialogue Meeting, Dr Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS Europe Foundation, who together with Candid Foundation and ReStart Initiative hosted the Bonn event, said that a lot of work needs to be done between now and November, and particularly the dialogue with the COP Troika countries, the UN Climate Secretariat and interested state parties needs to be continued and intensified. As a concrete step, LINKS Europe will set up an ad hoc working group with other interested non-state actors, to ensure that the conversation continues, and tangible results are achieved.
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Event
South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School held successfully in Georgia from 21-31 August

South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School held successfully in Georgia from 21-31 August

The first South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School (SCYPSS) was held successfully in Kachreti, Georgia from 21-31 August 2023. Thirty young participants aged between 21 and 29, ten each from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia participated in the Summer School. At the end of the Summer School participants also attended the South Caucasus Regional Dialogue Forum. The School and the Forum were organised by LINKS Europe, with the support of the European Union and the Government of Norway.
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News
Taking forward the work on landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus - report issued after consultation process

Taking forward the work on landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus - report issued after consultation process

LINKS Europe has just published a report on the future of landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus based on a consultation process with stakeholders between June 2023 and February 2024. The report focuses on the regional campaign "Landmine Free South Caucasus", which was implemented from October 2018 to December 2023. A formal consultation process was held from 15 January to 15 February 2024, through an open call to which anyone could reply. In the course of the consultation process LINKS Europe held 22 in-person meetings, 12 online meetings. and received written submissions from several partners. The report makes 12 recommendations on how the work can be organised in the future.
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News
4 April is International Landmine Awareness Day

4 April is International Landmine Awareness Day

In the South Caucasus, the problem of landmines and other unexploded remnants of war remains a serious issue across the region. Over the last months, since the end of the 44-day Karabakh War, the problem has become more acute as efforts are made to rehabilitate territories that were until recently in the conflict zone. Most of these territories are heavily mined. Problems also remain in other areas on both the Armenian and the Azerbaijani sides of the line of contact and the international border.

Focus on Yemen

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News
In Yemen the legitimate government announces appointment of a new prime minister whilst rebels continue attacks on Red Sea shipping

In Yemen the legitimate government announces appointment of a new prime minister whilst rebels continue attacks on Red Sea shipping

Yemen's legitimate government announced the appointment of new prime minister. The internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council head announced that Yemen’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak will be the new prime minister. He succeeds Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed, who was made an adviser to PLC president, Rashad Al-Alimi. In a post on X, the new prime minister promised to focus on improving living standards for Yemenis, reviving government institutions, and putting an end to the Houthi military seizure of power in Yemen. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi militia on Tuesday launched another wave of missiles toward ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as the group’s leader vowed to continue attacks until Israel lifted its blockade of Gaza. A cargo vessel sailing 57 nautical miles west of the Houthi-controlled port city of Hodeidah sustained minor damage to its bridge after one of the weapons passed through its deck, according to British maritime agencies the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and Ambrey. The UKMTO reported that a small boat had been spotted off the ship’s port side. Meanwhile, Ambrey officials said a British-owned and Barbados-flagged cargo ship had been damaged in a drone attack while navigating through the southeast Red Sea. On Tuesday, the UKMTO warned shipping companies operating in the Gulf of Aden to exercise caution after receiving reports of an explosion near to a commercial vessel 50 nautical miles south of the Yemeni city of Aden.

Focus on the South Caucasus

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News
Tens of thousands take to the streets of Tbilisi to protest against repressive law

Tens of thousands take to the streets of Tbilisi to protest against repressive law

Tens of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets of the capital Tbilisi on Saturday evening  (11 May) to protest a controversial "foreign influence" bill backed by the government. Protesters marched to the capital's Europe Square holding Georgian and EU flags, chanting “no to the Russian law”. The law would target civil society organisations and independent media that receive foreign funding. Massive rallies have gripped the Black Sea Caucasus country for nearly a month after the ruling Georgian Dream party reintroduced the bill. Despite a campaign of intimidation ahead of Saturday's rally - in which dozens of NGO workers, activists and opposition politicians received threats or were physically assaulted - protesters turned up in their thousands undeterred by the pouring rain. Opposition parties say the bill - coined "Russian law" after Russia's passing of similar legislation in 2012 - will be used by the government to clamp down on dissent. The US has said the bill threatens free speech. On Friday, foreign ministers of Nordic and Baltic states issued a joint statement urging the government in Tbilisi to reconsider the bill Last week, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the Georgian people want a "European future". "Georgia is at a crossroads. It should stay the course on the road to Europe," she posted on X. But the Georgian Dream government has defended the bill, saying it will "boost transparency" over NGOs' foreign funding. It aims to sign the measure into law by mid-May. If adopted, the law would require that any independent NGO and media organisation receiving more than 20% of its funding from abroad to register as an "organisation pursuing the interests of a foreign power". But the protesters fear it could be used to crush critical voices ahead of parliamentary elections later this year. The bill cleared its second parliamentary stage by a margin of 83 votes to 23. After a third reading, it has to be signed by President Salome Zurabishvili, who has vowed to veto it - although Georgian Dream has sufficient numbers in parliament to overrule her. In 2023, mass street protests forced Georgian Dream to drop plans for similar measures.
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Commentary
Commentary: The four Cs that will characterise Armenia-Azerbaijan relations for the next decade

Commentary: The four Cs that will characterise Armenia-Azerbaijan relations for the next decade

Armenia and Azerbaijan have practically been in a state of war with each other ever since they emerged as independent countries following the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Over the last three years they have been negotiating, sometimes with the help of others, sometimes on their own, to end the cycle of violence and usher in a new era of peace. So far they have failed to agree on the text of a peace agreement, but it is likely that eventually they will, possibly quite soon. However, even in the absence of a formal peace agreement Armenia-Azerbaijan relations are changing, and will continue to change to become much more nuanced than has been the case so far. A relationship that has so far been based on confrontation and containment is making way for one based on contact and co-operation. The process is unlikely to be very quick, or simple and easy. At least for another decade Armenia-Azerbaijan relations will continue to be a mix of all four elements: confrontation, containment, contact and co-operation. Managing this mix will be the challenge facing the leadership in the two countries. The international community must be ready to support this process tangibly and speedily.
LINKS Europe

commonspace.eu  is an activity of LINKS Europe, an independent foundation based in The Hague, The Netherlands. We focus on issues related to European peace and security, Europe's neighbouring regions, including Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia; North Africa and the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. LINKS Europe is committed to contribute to a better future by increasing understanding of complex foreign policy issues, by promoting dialogue and confidence-building as tools for helping to resolve conflict, and by engaging citizens in the process of building peace and security on the basis of solidarity and mutual respect. Through commonspace.eu we aim to provide insights and analysis on different topics in our area of interest, and a platform for diverse opinions.

Read or download the 2022 Annual Review of LINKS Europe work, and our work programme for 2023 here