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Russian expert:

Russian expert:

14 October 2011

Neither of the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will undertake a big war, Russian political scientist Andrey Yepifantsev said in an online interview given to ArmInfo in the framework of the "Alternative Information in the Armenian-Azeri Dialogue" project of the Region Center (Armenia) and the Peace and Democracy Institute (Azerbaijan). 

"Azerbaijan will be able to beat the Armenians only in case of a blitzkrieg but this scenario is impossible. If the war drags for more than 5-7 days, Azerbaijan will face the 'pipe' factor: the countries on the other end of the pipe, i.e. those receiving oil and gas from Azerbaijan, will force the Azeris to stop the war.  So, there will be no big war. On the other hand, if the current status quo is continued, in some 10-15 years the blockade-ridden Armenia will be so much exhausted economically that the blitzkrieg scenario will become possible. Once this happens, Azerbaijan will not miss its chance," Yepifantsev said.

He believes that the change of the negotiating format is possible.  There are four scenarios: 1. continued ineffective talks and a possible blitzkrieg by Azerbaijan; 2. refusal to continue the talks and a consequent 10-year pause under international non-resumption guarantees; 3. continued talks and simultaneous efforts to force the Armenian and Azeri societies into mutual concessions; and 4. a settlement formula imposed by an international coalition.

"For the moment the signing of a framework agreement on Nagorno- Karabakh is impossible," Yepifantsev said.

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