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NATO Chief says war is on Europe's doorstep, and warns against complacency

NATO Chief says war is on Europe's doorstep, and warns against complacency

Russia could attack a NATO country within the next five years, the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, said in a stark new warning. "NATO's own defences can hold for now," Rutte warned in Berlin, but conflict was "next door" to Europe, and he feared "too many are quietly complacent, and too many don't feel the urgency, too many believe that time is on our side. "Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies," Rutte said in a speech in Germany. "We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured." Earlier this month, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said his country was not planning to go to war with Europe, but it was ready "right now" if Europe wanted to - or started a war. But similar reassurances were given by Moscow in 2022, just before 200,000 Russian troops crossed the border and invaded Ukraine. Putin has accused European countries of hindering US efforts to bring peace in Ukraine - a reference to the role Ukraine's European allies have recently played in trying to change a US peace plan to end the war, whose initial draft was seen as favouring Russia. But Putin was not sincere, Nato's secretary-general said in the German capital, Berlin. Supporting Ukraine, he added, was a guarantee for European security. "Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with Nato, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us." Russia's economy has been on a war footing for more than three years now - its factories churn out ever more supplies of drones, missiles and artillery shells. According to a recent report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Russia has been producing each month around 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 Lancet drones and more than 50 artillery pieces. The UK, and most of its Western allies, are simply not anywhere near this point. Analysts say it would take years for Western Europe's factories to come close to matching Russia's mass-production of weapons. "Allied defence spending and production must rise rapidly, our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe," the Nato chief said.
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News
Thai-Cambodia border clashes enter fourth day

Thai-Cambodia border clashes enter fourth day

Renewed fighting between Thailand and Cambodia has entered its fourth day, with both sides accusing one another of violating international law, as they await a promised phone call from United States President Donald Trump. Cambodia’s Ministry of Defence accused Thailand’s military of carrying out numerous attacks within the country in the early hours of Thursday morning, including deploying tanks and artillery to strike targets in the country’s Pursat, Banteay Meanchey, and Oddar Meanchey provinces. In one such attack, Cambodia accused Thai soldiers of violating international humanitarian law by firing on civilians in Prey Chan village in Banteay Meanchey province. In another, it accused Thai forces of shelling “into Khnar Temple area”, and said Thai forces had also “fired artillery and support fire into the O’Smach area”. “Cambodia urges that Thailand immediately stop all hostile activities and withdraw its forces from Cambodia’s territorial integrity, and avoid acts of aggression that threaten peace and stability in the region,” the Defence Ministry said. Clashes took place on Wednesday at more than a dozen locations along the contested colonial-era demarcated 817-kilometre (508-mile) Thai-Cambodian border, with some of the most intense fighting being reported since a five-day battle in July, which saw dozens killed on both sides. Cambodia’s Ministry of the Interior said homes, schools, roads, Buddhist pagodas and ancient temples had been damaged by “Thailand’s intensified shelling and F-16 air strikes targeting villages and civilian population centres up to 30km [18.6 miles] inside Cambodian territory”. (click the image to read the full story).

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Analysis
Analysis: China and the South Caucasus

Analysis: China and the South Caucasus

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe.
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Opinion
Opinion: Baku's appointment with destiny on climate action

Opinion: Baku's appointment with destiny on climate action

As the sun sets over the Caspian Sea, the world turns its gaze to the Azerbaijani capital for the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). This year, Baku isn't just a geographical meeting point; it's a symbolic crossroads where nations must decide our planet's future. At the same time, Azerbaijan finds itself at the intersection of traditional energy systems and climate imperatives. While slow progress in the transition away from fossil fuels is due to increased energy demand from a growing economy and population, the importance of COP29 cannot be overstated - it is a destiny date for climate action.
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News
Paris and Berlin seek 'a more united Europe'

Paris and Berlin seek 'a more united Europe'

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Berlin today to discuss their vision for the future of Europe in light of the recent US presidential election, which Donald Trump claimed victory in. The meeting underlined their commitment to steer Europe towards greater unity, resilience and sovereignty amid evolving global dynamics.
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Azerbaijan-NATO event focused on energy security and climate change challenges

Azerbaijan-NATO event focused on energy security and climate change challenges

On Monday (28 October), Azerbaijan held a meeting in Baku with NATO's Climate and Energy Security Sector representatives from the Innovation, Hybrid Issues and Cybersecurity Division and representatives from NATO member and partner countries to discuss energy security and climate change. 
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US urges Azerbaijan to reach peace deal with Armenia before 2025 begins

US urges Azerbaijan to reach peace deal with Armenia before 2025 begins

US President Joe Biden has written a letter to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, stressing that peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is crucial to stabilising the region and increasing economic connectivity between Europe and Central Asia. Biden stressed that the US is strongly committed to supporting a peace treaty and that Aliyev should focus on reaching an agreement by the end of the year. 
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Analysis
Analysis: The tale of two elections: Implications for the South Caucasus

Analysis: The tale of two elections: Implications for the South Caucasus

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.
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Bonn Contact Group on Climate Peace and Security ahead of COP29 final report presentation was held successfully in Berlin

Bonn Contact Group on Climate Peace and Security ahead of COP29 final report presentation was held successfully in Berlin

The Bonn Contact Group on Climate, Peace and Security ahead of COP29, held its final report presentation on 9 October at the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany. The meeting was attended by representatives of Berlin-based civil society organisations, policymakers, academics and international organisations. The meeting focused on three critical reports examining the intersections of climate change with water scarcity, land degradation and food insecurity. The event was organised by LINKS Europe in collaboration with the Restart Initiative and the Candid Foundation.