For many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the emergence of the newly independent successor states, Russian diplomats counselled their western colleagues on the business of dealing with the people of the Caucasus, and their politics. They often described the Caucasians as the "excitable people of the South", who needed a special kind of handling, and only Russians knew how to do it. It was a Soviet version of "orientalism" that still lingers among the current Russian elite. Putin’s handling of the 2nd Karabakh War - and the subsequent steps he took to establish the post-war order in the region - was very much in this vein. Russia rushed troops to Karabakh to keep the peace, and Russia was to be involved at every stage and in every corner of building a post-war order. There was no space left for others to contribute to this process, except for some general reference to a UN role in providing humanitarian aid. Well content that the excitable people of the South had been calmed down, President Putin turned his attention to other matters – namely what for him were the less excitable, but no less irritable people on the western frontier, the Ukrainians.

Russia has become increasingly critical of western involvement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict settlement process, writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "Armenia and Azerbaijan should take all necessary steps to avoid being trapped in Russia – West or US – Iran confrontation. The ongoing war in Ukraine proved that this scenario might have catastrophic implications for both states. It does not mean that negotiations should be stopped. However, the hectic moves to sign a US or EU-prepared agreement, which Russia may view as an attempt to kick it out from South Caucasus, may destabilize the situation and bring new war instead of peace. In this context, the possible option to not lose the momentum could be a signature of a document that will envisage the principles of the future peace agreement while providing more time to carefully draft a peace treaty based on the balance of interests of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and other actors."

Russian armed forces conducted a major nuclear drill on Wednesday (October 26), the first since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February. The last Russian nuclear drill took place five days before it invaded Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin monitored the drill from a control centre. The exercise, which Russia says is an "annual routine", worries western countries because Putin has hinted he may be ready to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu called the drill a simulation of a “mass nuclear strike with strategic attack forces in response to a nuclear attack by our adversary”. According to Shoigu, the army practised a 'massive nuclear strike' in preparation for a possible nuclear attack by an enemy. The exercise included firing long-range cruise missiles at practice targets. The missile-carrying K-114 Tula submarine and two Tu-95 long-range strategic nuclear bombers were also used, the Kremlin reported. The missiles were fired from the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the far east of Russia. Cruise missiles from a nuclear-powered submarine were fired in the Barents Sea, in the north of Russia.

42-year-old Rishi Sunak was sworn in as the youngest UK Prime Minister in modern times on Tuesday (25 October), succeeding his party colleague Liz Truss as prime minister. He was mandated by King Charles III at Buckingham Palace to form a new government after Truss resigned today. In his first address as prime minister Sunak said that he wanted to unite the country and try to shore up the economy. "I will unite our country not with words, but with action. I will work day in, and day out to deliver for you. This government will have integrity, professionalism, and accountability at every level. Trust is earned and I will earn yours." Sunak said.

For decades, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan were seen from a false balance of power prism, that in the end failed miserably, and for Armenia, disastrously.  Since November 2020 the question of what comes next has dominated the political discourse in the region. Some think the solution is a return to a balance of power approach, but given the current realities this sounds more like wishful thinking. The future of the region is not balance of power, but balance of interests. This means that both sides engage and co-operate with each other, simply because it is in their interest to do so. The arguments for such an approach are strong, even if they have not yet been convincingly made to the populations at large. But first the loose ends from the 2020 war need to be tied up. The Jus post bellum framework has yet to be worked out. Signing a comprehensive peace treaty before the end of the year, as some insist is possible, is unlikely. But signing a peace document by the end of the year is possible. A "Prague Plus", may be a general document that builds on what has been discussed and agreed in Prague on 7 October 2022, and in other already agreed texts. It also means that after its signing negotiations will have to continue very intensively. These are likely to be in two tracks – the main track between Baku and Yerevan, and a secondary parallel track between Baku and Stepanakert. "It is disingenious to ask what comes first, whether it is peace or a peace treaty, for both depend on each other. For the South Caucasus the next days and weeks will be crucial and it is time for everyone to up their game", writes Dennis Sammut in this Monday Commentary on commonspace.eu