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Commentary: Central Asia is safer together
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Commentary: Central Asia is safer together

7 March 2023
Whilst it is often the case that the five Central Asian republics are lumped together and seen by outsiders as one group, in truth there are between them huge differences, a lot of competition, some rivalry, and every now and then, some conflict, writes the commonspace.eu editorial team. The big two, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are often perceived to be in competition with each other. The two have different strengths and weaknesses, which means that if they play their cards right they can turn this competition into a healthy collaborative relationship with a win-win situation. This is what appears to be happening at the moment. Kazakh President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, met his Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Shymkent on 3 March to discuss “trade and prospects for strengthening allied relations between the two countries”. The Kazakh presidential administration described the meeting as “informal”. The two leaders appear to have two priorities. The first is to co-ordinate positions in the face of what appears to be considerable pressure from Moscow for the two countries to tow the line and stay in the fold, at a time when the Kremlin feels embattled due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. 
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A convergence of factors and developments make a spring breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations possible
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A convergence of factors and developments make a spring breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations possible

2 March 2023
After an erratic 2022, which saw prospects for peace and normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and between Armenia and Turkey, swing between unprecedented new heights and familiar lows, and after a rather pessimistic start for 2023 when diplomacy appeared to have to come to dead end, March has started with cautious optimism in the air, and the prospect of a historic Spring breakthrough appears within reach. This is due to the convergence of a number of factors and developments, some anticipated and some not. The ten developments that offer cause for optimism are: US brokered talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Munich; the deployment of an EU Monitoring Mission; the revival of the Brussels format; internet diplomacy; the ruling of the International Court of Justice; a fluid political situation in Stepanakert; Baku and Stepanakert holding direct talks; earthquake diplomacy between Armenia and Turkey; the limitations of Russia’s power and influence have been exposed; and more confident leaderships in both Baku and Yerevan.
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Gulf States' position on the war in Ukraine is a work in progress
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Gulf States' position on the war in Ukraine is a work in progress

28 February 2023
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago the prevalent feeling among the Arab Gulf states was that they did not want to get involved.  Some thought the best policy was to ignore it, others that they should at the very least dodge it, and some even saw in it some opportunity to extend relations with Russia and China.  There were a number of reasons for this. The region was frustrated with how the west dealt with it. It expected a more equal relationship that never properly materialised. There was fatigue at western attempts – some clearly ill-judged – at interfering in the Arab region, and conversely, disappointment at western failure to stand up to Iran. The unsightly US departure from Afghanistan, and talk of American strategic re-positioning, convinced some that the American moment in the Gulf had passed.
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Our War
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Our War

24 February 2023
One year has passed since Vladimir Putin’s Russia attacked Ukraine, plunging Europe into a war that has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands, and devastated a whole country. Putin expected Ukraine to fall into his lap within hours. It didn’t. It resisted heroically. He also expected Europe, the United States and the rest of the international community to give a muddled response, and for things to be back to business as usual within weeks. It did not happen. The response of Europe, the United States and similarly minded countries was fast, resolute and robust. Having grossly miscalculated, Putin had two choices: to admit his mistake and recalibrate, or, to persist, and to keep digging despite the fact that he was clearly in a hole. Most countries have internal corrective systems that in such situations keep leaders in check. In Russia no such systems exist. So Putin keeps digging himself into a hole by threatening to escalate. What has been clear from day one, is that this is not simply Ukraine’s war. Countries can have disputes, and sometimes they also go to war with each other. Usually the world stands by and tries to bring the belligerents to the negotiating table and to restore peace.
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The European Union Mission in Armenia is a bold step that is necessary despite the risks
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The European Union Mission in Armenia is a bold step that is necessary despite the risks

23 February 2023
This week the European Union deployed its unarmed monitoring mission in Armenia with a mandate for two years.  EUMA -  EU Mission in Armenia - was formally established by a Council Decision on 23 January 2023. According to the EU, “through its deployment on the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it aims to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia, build confidence and human security in conflict affected areas, and ensure an environment conducive to the normalisation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan supported by the EU.” The decision to deploy a longer term mission is a bold step on the part of the EU. It is necessary and underpins the EU commitment to long term peace in the region. But it would be wrong not to mention that the mission is fraught with risks, which need to be managed.
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It took an earthquake to jolt Armenia-Turkey relations out of decades of animosity
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It took an earthquake to jolt Armenia-Turkey relations out of decades of animosity

16 February 2023
The earthquake that hit Turkey and parts of Syria on 6 February was a massive tragedy. As of Thursday (16 February) it has left nearly fifty thousand people dead, many tens of thousands injured and millions affected directly or indirectly. The world rallied around the beleaguered communities, putting aside political differences and diplomatic obstacles. The impact of the earthquake on Turkey was enormous. Ten out of eighty one Turkish provinces were affected, and some Turkish towns were wiped away almost completely. Humanitarian aid started pouring into Turkey from every part of the world. The contribution of one small neighbouring country was particularly significant, not only as part of the humanitarian effort, but also for its political and diplomatic symbolism. Armenia and Turkey have had a difficult relationship for decades. The two neighbouring countries do not have diplomatic relations. Their borders are closed. Recent attempts to normalise relations appeared to be moving at very slow speed – both sides having to manoeuvre around many sensitive issues, and a heavy baggage of history. It took an earthquake to jolt relations out of decades of animosity.
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A new sense of purpose in Central Asia as leaders seek better relations between their countries and with the rest of the world
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A new sense of purpose in Central Asia as leaders seek better relations between their countries and with the rest of the world

7 February 2023
For more than three decades after the collapse of the USSR the five Central Asia Republics continued to live largely in the shadow of Moscow.  Neighbouring China made headway, particularly in the economic sphere, largely with Moscow’s acquiescence, and there were a few moments when the west appeared to be making a mark on the region too, especially after the 9/11 attacks, when the US was allowed facilities to help with its invasion of Afghanistan. But this moment did not last long. On everything else that mattered, and for most of the time, Moscow continued to call the shots. The last five years have seen a seismic change in the region. A new generation of leaders are seeking better relations with the rest of the world: connectivity has become a buzzword, and there is a genuine effort to engage with the EU and the US, in most if not all the capitals. Ukraine, and the implications of the Russian invasion on future relations with all the post Soviet states, has focused minds, particularly in Tashkent and Astana.
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Season's Greetings
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Season's Greetings

24 December 2022
The editorial team, associates and contributors at commonspace.eu extend their best wishes for the festive season to all our readers and subscribers around the world. Happy holidays!
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