In the fifth part of its series of briefings on the 2012 Parliamentary elections in Armenia, LINKS Analysis looks at how the parties contesting the election are addressing the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and what the campaign tells us on the way that Armenian politicians will deal with this issue in the future.
In conclusion, LINKS Analysis says:
"In truth none of the politicians want Karabakh to become an issue in the current election campaign because this will require them to give answers which they don’t have, or prefer not to disclose, on how they are going to deal with the decisions that need to be taken in the coming years. For Armenian political parties Nagorno-Karabakh is the elephant in the room that they will have to deal with sooner or later.
Many observers of the conflict think that the situation around Karabakh will come to some sort of defining moment in the course of the next five years. This could be either a breakthrough in the negotiations brought about by international pressure, or an escalation of the low intensity hostilities that continue on a daily basis on the front line. An all-out war is also possible but unlikely. In any scenario Armenian politicians will have to take a stand. Whatever that will be they are not sharing it with the Armenian electorate, who on this issue has very little choice between the positions of the parties, and can only guess what the position of the different parties will be in any future scenario.
The question that is often is asked is “do the Armenians in Armenia proper really care about Nagorno-Karabakh?” There is no doubt a degree of conflict fatigue and many Armenians would prefer their country to focus more on its development. However this does not mean that people do not care what happens with Karabakh, and politicians need to take this into account all the time.
Armenian politicians will have to do this whilst trying to understand why despite the fact that unresolved conflicts affect other post-Soviet countries – Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan, and despite the fact that out of the four Armenia is the only one that claims “victory” in the conflict, the other three countries have found a way of moving on, whilst for Armenia Karabakh continues to be a responsibility which the Armenian state carries on its back leaving it with little room for manoevre. Changing this situation to a more realistic and sustainable one is going to require from Armenian politicians courage and vision. For the moment, if they have any, they are not telling anybody about it."
You can read the briefings on the LINKS Analysis website
