Commentary: A shaken EU fires opening shots in long war of attrition with Belarus

By EU standards it was swift and strong. The united European response to the brazen Belarusian snatching of an opposition figure from a commercial airplane of a European airline flying between two European capitals came only within a day of the incident.

On Sunday, Belarus ordered a civilian Ryanair plane flying from Athens to Vilnius to land in Minsk citing a bomb threat. Belarusian military aircraft buzzed the plane in case the pilot decided not to comply. On the ground several passengers, including one known critic of the regime of Alexandre Lukashenko were taken off the plane and arrested. Governments and public opinion across the world were outraged. The condemnation within the EU was swift and universal.

read more: Editorial On Belarus the EU must now act quickly and decisively 

By Monday, EU leaders attending a scheduled summit in Brussels had agreed to turn the words into action: they demanded the immediate release of Raman Pratasevich and Sofia Sapega and that their freedom of movement be guaranteed; they called on the International Civil Aviation Organization to urgently investigate this unprecedented and unacceptable incident; they decided to start the process of implementing targeted sanctions, including further economic sanctions; and they started the process of isolating Belarus from the world of aviation calling on all EU-based carriers to avoid overflight of Belarus and launching measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports of flights operated by such airlines.

Nothing dramatic will happen overnight as a result, but make no mistake about it, this was the opening shot of what is likely to be a long and messy war of attrition against Belarus that may last for years. Like a big elephant the European Union is a strong international player, but moves rather awkwardly. But on Belarus now, the EU's mind is set. The process will start and will be sustained.

The impact on Belarus will, despite all of Lukashenko's bravado, be severe. It will not be fatal for one simple reason: Russia does not want Belarus to drift towards the west. They will therefore always throw a lifeline to Lukashenko - at least until they can find a reliable substitute. But the relationship between Moscow and Minsk will not get any better as a result of this crisis. Belarus, increasingly isolated will become even more dependant on Russia than has been the case so far. Moscow on its part is trying to manage an already complicated situation with the west. This latest drama may or may not have been part of Putin's script, but even if it was, may have already escalated more than anticipated.

For the moment, Raman Pratasevich remains in a Belarus prison. A televised confession released by the Belarus authorities on Monday, shows clearly it was done under duress. His abduction may however be a game-changer for Belarus. But it will take time.

source: This is a commentary prepared by the editorial team of commonspace.eu
photo: The leaders of the 27 member states of the EU meeting at a European Council meeting in Brussels on 24 May 2021
The views expressed in opinion pieces and commentaries do not necessarily reflect the position of commonspace.eu or its partners

 

 

 

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell underlined that the European Union will make every effort to support the peace process and to remain a committed partner to the Afghan people. "Of course, we will have to take into account the evolving situation, but disengagement is not an option.  We are clear on that: there is no alternative to a negotiated political settlement, through inclusive peace talks.
Editor's choice
News
Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

On March 27, the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, issued a statement calling on the Georgian government to “fully respect” its human rights obligations as a Council of Europe member state, “including with regard to the protection of the human rights of LGBTI people,” in response to the ruling party’s initiation of two draft constitutional laws on “family values and the protection of minors.” “I am concerned about the present political discourse in Georgia, as illustrated by the announcement made by the Georgian Dream Party of their initiative to amend the Constitution and to adopt a new constitutional law on ‘Protection of Family Values and Underaged Persons’. It is reflective of entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people which still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians, and is capable of having a strong, negative impact on the human rights, safety and well-being of LGBTI people and defenders of their rights. It also represents the political manipulation of LGBTI-phobia in the run-up to elections, which I have previously condemned, and which should have no place in a democratic society, based on the rule of law and respect for human rights of everyone.

Popular

Editor's choice
News
Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

On March 27, the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, issued a statement calling on the Georgian government to “fully respect” its human rights obligations as a Council of Europe member state, “including with regard to the protection of the human rights of LGBTI people,” in response to the ruling party’s initiation of two draft constitutional laws on “family values and the protection of minors.” “I am concerned about the present political discourse in Georgia, as illustrated by the announcement made by the Georgian Dream Party of their initiative to amend the Constitution and to adopt a new constitutional law on ‘Protection of Family Values and Underaged Persons’. It is reflective of entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people which still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians, and is capable of having a strong, negative impact on the human rights, safety and well-being of LGBTI people and defenders of their rights. It also represents the political manipulation of LGBTI-phobia in the run-up to elections, which I have previously condemned, and which should have no place in a democratic society, based on the rule of law and respect for human rights of everyone.