Arif Yunusov: Safarov factor allowed Azerbaijani authorities to engineer a campaign of spread-eagle speeches and gain political dividends

 One should not exaggerate the impact of Ramil Safarov's pardon on the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations given that there was no serious political dialogue between the two countries. Consequently, it is senseless speaking of its continuation or suspension. Arif Yunusov, Head of the Conflict Studies and Migration Department of the Institute for Peace and Democracy, made such statement to ArmInfo when commenting on the possible consequences of Ramnil Safarov's pardon.

"One can speak of certain dialogue of the civil societies, which is fading away year by year. The negotiations for resolution of the Karabakh conflict faced deadlock yet long ago. There is imitation of negotiations and the parties to the conflict do not really want to resolve the conflict. It is obvious that the parties must go on a compromise to resolve the conflict, while neither of the parties wants to do it.  Sometimes, they speak of a desire to achieve fair pace, but each of them means peace in its favor. Each party is sure that time works in its favor. Armenians think that the world and Azerbaijan, first of all, will sooner or later resign mind to the fact that Karabakh is outside Azerbaijan. The later, in turn, is sure that Armenia's economy is becoming weaker and weaker and it is necessary to wait for the right time and keep arming," the Azerbaijani political expert.

Therefore, he said, the authorities of both the countries have been imitating negotiations over the last years as the superpowers wanted so in order to prevent resumption of military actions. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are well aware that there is no progress in the negotiations, but they still visit the region for the sake of decency, promise something to Armenians and Azerbaijanis, though they do not believe in their own promises. They have become like political tourists rather than mediators. In such situation, Yunusov said, Safarov case has played its role inside Azerbaijan and Armenia, putting aside the morality.  Safarov factor allowed Azerbaijani authorities and political forces to engineer a campaign of spread-eagle speeches and gain political dividends.  In Armenia the authorities and political forces also tried to use Safarov factor to gain political dividends. This factor will be used in both the countries for a long time, he said.

Yunusov believes that exchange of fire in the conflict zone will become more frequent and intensive, but they will not spiral into something more serious, for both the parties are well aware that they are not key players in this issue. 

"Hence, the parties to the Karabakh conflict have nothing to do but make propaganda campaigns inside their countries, in the region and at international structures. Nothing else.  The negotiations will fade away for some months, indeed. Afterwards, the political tourists from the Minsk Group will again visit the region. Another matter that civil societies of both the countries should not yield to the spread eagle speeches and should keep working on establishment of dialogue. The only alternative is war," Yunusov said.

Earlier on August 31 the Armenian authorities adopted a decision to suspend diplomatic relations and official contacts with Hungary. President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan made public the decision at a special meeting with the heads of diplomatic missions on Friday after the Hungarian authorities extradited Azeri officer Ramil Safarov, who was sentenced by a Hungarian court to life in jail for killing sleeping Armenian officer Gurgen Margaryan with an axe in Budapest in 2004. Both the officers were undergoing an English language course under the NATO PfP program. The same day after Safarov's extradition,
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev decreed to pardon the criminal. According to Hungarian Mass Media, Azerbaijan pledged to purchase Hungarian government bonds in the amount of 2-3 billion EUR.