Geostrategic Europe

Accession to the EU is incompatible with Armenia’s continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led trade bloc that gives it tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Overchuk. Armenia would also have to pay much more for Russian energy resources and food, Overchuk said. Last week, the Armenian Parliament adopted a bill calling for the government to seek accession to the EU, representing a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy perspective away from its long-time ally Russia.

On 27 March 2025, the Foreign Ministers of the Republic of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Deputy Foreign Ministers of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic, as well as the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas held their 20th European Union-Central Asia Ministerial meeting in Ashgabat in Turkmenistan. The ministers discussed the preparations for the organisation of the first EU-Central Asia Summit on 4 April 2025 in Samarkand in Uzbekistan, which will demonstrate their commitment to deepening ties with the EU, at the highest level, materialising closer strategic cooperation, and marking an important step in the intensification of EU-Central Asia relations.

Ukraine’s allies from across Europe gathered for talks in Paris on Thursday to discuss how to strengthen Kyiv’s hand and its military as it pushes for a ceasefire with Russia, and to consider proposals to deploy European troops in the country in tandem with any peace deal. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting the leaders of nearly 30 countries plus NATO and European Union chiefs. The summit comes at a crucial juncture in the war, with intensifying diplomatic efforts to broker ceasefires, driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump  to end the fighting.

Russia and Ukraine agreed Tuesday to halt military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy sites during talks brokered by the United States, which offered as a first concrete incentive to Moscow to ease pressure on agricultural exports. With President Donald Trump pushing for a rapid end to the war that has killed tens of thousands of people, US negotiators shuttled separately over three days in the Saudi capital Riyadh between delegations from Ukraine and Russia.

The evolving dynamics of Russia-USA relations have sent shockwaves through the post-Soviet space, with the South Caucasus emerging as a critical region to observe the fallout. Recent negotiations between the United States and Russia, particularly those aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine, have exposed fault lines in international diplomacy that carry profound lessons for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The implications of this “rapprochement” are starkly illustrated by Ukraine’s experience, Azerbaijan’s strategic foresight, and Armenia’s persistent miscalculations in relying on external powers for security.

The Defence White Paper, published in Brussels on 19 March by the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, entitled “Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030” was a welcome, major contribution, to the debate on European Defence and Security. Unlike similar epistles coming out of Brussels, who one often wonders are written for whom, and by whom, the Defence White Paper is informative, candid and containing well-argued steps going forward. It gives the reader a good sense of the urgency of the situation and sets out clearly a set of steps aimed at addressing the urgency in a timely manner.

The President of the European Council, António Costa, along with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, will be travelling to Uzbekistan for the first EU-Central Asia summit on 3-4 April. The summit will be hosted by Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Samarkand, with the participation of the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The summit will present a key opportunity for the EU to demonstrate its geopolitical interest in intensifying bilateral engagement and enhance regional cooperation with Central Asia.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed Tuesday on a halt in Russian attacks against Ukrainian energy targets but fell far short of securing a full ceasefire in a highly anticipated phone call. The US and Russian leaders spoke for more than an hour and a half and both expressed hopes for repairing relations between the countries. However, there was no agreement from the Russian president for Washington's proposed full 30-day ceasefire in Russia's invasion of its pro-Western neighbour.

The news, released simultaneously in Baku and Yerevan, that Armenia and Azerbaijan had successfully concluded negotiations on a peace agreement is very welcome. Negotiations had been going on for a long time, sometimes in person and sometimes by email, sometimes with the participation of third-party mediators, but most of the time bilaterally without third parties. Armenia and Azerbaijan should be congratulated. The EU, US, Russia and France were amongst the first to praise the sides for their success.