Elections

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.

The US Helsinki Commission on Tuesday (1 October) published an analysis of Russia's political and economic agenda. The document addresses, among other things, various developments in the South Caucasus. The region is experiencing various political shifts as Russia's material influence wanes due to its focus on its war with Ukraine. On the one hand. Armenia was once one of Russia's strongest allies. However, following the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020, Armenia has moved away from Moscow and more towards a Western agenda. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has adopted a cooperative approach with Russia, especially given the similarities between the two countries' strong governmental grip.   

Social Affairs Minister Kamel Maddouri has been appointed Tunisia's new prime minister, according to a statement from the presidency. President Kais Saied dismissed Prime Minister Ahmed Hachani on Wednesday, just one year after he was appointed.

French President Emmanuel Macron has asked Prime Minister Gabriel Attal not to resign immediately "to ensure the stability of the country". He thanked Attal for the campaign he had led, although it had not gone as he had hoped.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation from the government of President Emmanuel Macron on Monday (8 July), following his heavy defeat in the second and decisive round of the French parliamentary elections. The Nouveau Front Populaire, a left-wing alliance, appears to have won the parliamentary elections against all odds.

Reformist Massoud Pezeshkian has been elected Iran's new president, beating his hardline conservative rival Saeed Jalili. The vote was declared in Dr Pezeshkian's favour after he secured 53.3% of the more than 30 million votes counted. Mr Jalili polled 44.3%. The run-off came after no candidate secured a majority in the first round  on 28 June, which saw a historically low voter turnout of 40%. The election was called after Iran’s previous president Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in May, in which seven others died.  Even before the final results were declared by Iran's interior ministry, Dr Pezeshkian's supporters had taken to the streets in Tehran and a number of other cities to celebrate. Videos posted on social media showed mostly young people dance and wave the signature green flag of his campaign, while passing cars sounded their horns. Dr Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon, is critical of Iran’s notorious morality police and caused a stir after promising “unity and cohesion”, as well as an end to Iran's “isolation” from the world.

France, Germany, and Poland have become "permanent" targets of Russian disinformation attacks in the lead-up to the European Parliament (EU) elections this week, a senior EU official reported on Tuesday (4 June). The EU has consistently warned that Russia would intensify its disinformation campaigns as the June 6-9 vote approaches. "There are three big countries under permanent attack [from Russia]: France, Germany, and Poland," said EU Commissioner Vera Jourova, citing research by the European Digital Media Observatory, of which AFP is a part. She highlighted an increase in "more massive disinformation attacks on specific topics."