Domestic Politics

If there is one thing that strikes out from the events in Georgia in the last five weeks it is Salome Zurabishvili and the role she has played in keeping together the disparate Georgian Opposition. She has risen to the occasion in a way few thought she has the capacity to do. Georgian Dream never took her seriously, in all the time she was president. That had little consequence. But their failure to take her seriously now is a fatal mistake which will cost them dearly. Salome Zurabishvili left the Orbeliani Palace on 29 December, saying she was taking her legitimacy with her. Most Georgians still see her as the president. In any case, Salome Zurabishvili has become a phenomena. She will be a part of any future solution for Georgia Georgian Dream were very keen to replace Salome Zurabishvili. But their choice is unfortunate. Most Georgians had not heard of Mikheil Kavelashvili before he was nominated to the post of president. Those that did, remembered him as an ex-footballer. In parliament his role was completely undistinguished: one of a cohort of men that Georgian Dream wheels out whenever it needs the numbers to pass a law or some other administrative measure. Under the Georgian constitution, the president is a symbolic figurehead. But Kavelashvili cannot even be that. His time as president is likely to be a short and unhappy one. Crises? What crises? That Georgia is in the middle of its most serious crises since independence is recognised by most. But the Georgian Dream government is in complete denial. It is treating events on the streets of Tbilisi and other Georgian cities as temporary aberrations which will soon blow away and are forgotten. It is completely indifferent to the calls of the international community. This is an example of how cut-off the Georgian Dream government is from reality. It was left to Gia Volski, the ascetic 1st Deputy Speaker of Parliament, to articulate a response to the accusation that the Georgian government was ignoring a major crises. Speaking at a press briefing on 30 December, Volski said: “The situation is difficult, but it does not indicate the existence of a political crisis”. Volski than explained what in his view constitutes a crises: “a political crisis is a situation when the government cannot be approved, the budget cannot be adopted or a vote of no confidence is expressed in the government!” Until they admit there is a crisis the Georgian Dream will not take measures that would contribute to its solution. Ivanishvili must get real In all this, a central figure is the de facto leader of Georgian Dream and ruler of Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili. This week he was included on a US sanction list. But many think it could have been worse – and some think it should have been worse. But it seems what the Americans tried to do is to bring Bidzina to his senses. Ivanishvili must get real for his sake, and for the sake of Georgia. There is still a small chance that he will. Georgians need to draw lessons from present events in order to build a future that is both honourable and sustainable.

Mikheil Kavelashvili was sworn in as president of Georgia on Sunday as thousands of protesters gathered in the capital Tbilisi to demonstrate against his inauguration. Outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili, an opponent of the ruling Georgian Dream party said in a defiant speech to supporters outside the presidential palace that she was leaving the residence but that Kavelashvili had no legitimacy as president.

n Baku, flags on official buildings and embassies of foreign countries flew at half mast Thursday (26 December) as Azerbaijan observed a day of mourning following the crash of an AZAL plane which resulted in the death of 38 passengers and crew. The plane was on  a scheduled flight from Baku to Grozny, but was diverted to Kazakhstan because of bad weather. President Ilham Aliyev was informed of the crash whilst on his way to St Petersburg where he was to attend the informal CIS summit hosted by President Putin. He ordered his plan to return to Baku to lead the Azerbaijani response to the crash. Azerbaijani media speculated about the causes  of the crash, with some outlets saying that it was hit by a Chechen missile whilst approaching Grozny.

Events in Georgia are in the spotlight in Brussels this week with European leaders putting the political situation in Tbilisi on their agenda during the EU Council meeting for Heads of Government on Thursday. On Wednesday, the President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili delivered a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

On 10 December, the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a Baku-based political think tank closely affiliated with the Azerbaijani government, held a high-level international conference titled “The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” The conference identified the territorial claims in Armenia’s constitution against Azerbaijan as the primary obstacle to peace.

European Union foreign ministers have agreed to ask the European Commission to prepare a proposal for the suspension of visa-free travel for Georgian officials holding diplomatic passports as a consequence of the  crackdown in Georgia on pro-EU protests. This measure will be a considerable setback for the government in Tbilisi.

The situation in Georgia is currently very critical. As commonspace.eu pointed out in its editorial published on 2nd December time has run out for Bizhina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream party. What remains for Ivanishvili and his associates is to agree an honourable exit after agreeing to new elections, which must be administered by a credible body. However, every day that Georgian Dream procrastinates, its position weakens. And every statement of its leaders makes things worse. The Georgian Dream had everything going for it but it squandered its political capital and its legacy. Ivanishvili tried to manage Georgian politics like a business. He failed to build bridges with opponents and relied on inexperienced people who failed to understand how Georgian politics worked. Georgia needs to come out of this experience stronger than before.

Time is up for the Georgian Dream and its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili. Many in Georgia accused the Georgian Dream of rigging the elections of 28 October, and in recent weeks there have been protests in Georgia calling for new fair elections and an investigation into what actually happened around the election period and the election process. The beating up of peaceful demonstrators in the streets of Tbilisi in recent days is an embarrassment to every decent Georgian Dream supporter. That was bad enough, but what finally broke the government's support was the decision by the Georgian Dream two days ago to end its negotiations with the European Union with a view to Georgia's joining the EU or rather postpone the negotiations with four years. This created a completely different situation. Because, first of all, EU membership and EU perspective is embedded in the Georgian constitution, so Georgian Dream has no power to actually renounce or delay this mandate. Secondly, for many people it brought up the whole question of future relations with the EU and the West, and in truth no one in Georgia wants to break relations and the decision of the Georgian Dream leaves it isolated and unable to claim the support of the whole society.

A DHL cargo plane crashed near the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Monday morning (25 November). One of the passengers died in the crash. He was reportedly a Spaniard. Three other crew members were injured. This was reported by Lithuanian media, including public broadcaster LRT.