Domestic Politics

Turkey's highly anticipated presidential election held yesterday (14 May) has left incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan falling short of securing the necessary votes for a first-round victory.  Despite polls having predicted an initial first round victory for Erdogan’s challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the outcome sets the stage for a runoff between the two, the outcome of which may have huge implications for Turkey's political landscape and its role on the international stage. The second round will take place on 28 May.  Erdogan, who has been either Prime Minister or President for 20 years, failed to reach the required 50% of votes in the first round to declare outright victory. With 97.95% of votes counted, Erdogan secured 49.34%, while Kilicdaroglu garnered 44.99%, according to state-run Anadolu news agency. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.28% of votes This election marks a significant test for Erdogan, who has faced economic challenges and criticism regarding the government's handling of the earthquake on 6 February. Kilicdaroglu on the other hand fronts a coalition of six parties who are seeking to oust Erdogan with promises to address economic issues and restore democratic institutions.

U.S. President Joe Biden has called the ongoing violence in Sudan an "unconscionable betrayal" in a statement made at the White House on Thursday (4 May).  The fighting, which will enter its fourth week this weekend, broke out on Saturday 15 April after the Sudanese army and a rival paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, failed to reach an agreement over a transition to a civilian government. “The violence taking place in Sudan is a tragedy — and it is a betrayal of the Sudanese people’s clear demand for civilian government and a transition to democracy,” President Biden said. “I join the peace-loving people of Sudan and leaders around the world in calling for a durable ceasefire between the belligerent parties.” Meanwhile, also on Thursday, the U.S. state department announced that it had completed its evacuation of at least 1,300 U.S. citizens in Sudan, as well as evacuating at least 700 more from other countries. Air strikes and heavy shelling returned to the Sudanese capital city of Khartoum on Thursday as a fragile and frequently violated ceasefire lapsed.

There are now ten days to go until Turkey heads to the polls for the first round of the Turkish presidential election on 14 May. The main race is being fought between incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has served as either Prime Minister or President since 2003, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a former bureaucrat from the country's social security authority who is leading a coalition of six parties from across the political spectrum. The election is expected to be tight. Over the weekend, Istanbul-based opinion pollster TEAM released its April report, according to Al-Monitor, which put challenger Kilicdaroglu at 47.4% and Erdogan at 44.4%. If no candidate reaches a majority in the first round of voting, the election will head to a second round. If it were to reach this stage, Kilicdaroglu is predicted to beat Erdogan by a 5% margin, according to TEAM. Turkey is currently experiencing major challenges that have dented Erdogan's hopes of winning May's election.

At least 85 people have been killed in a crush at a school in the rebel-held Yemeni capital of Sanaa on Wednesday night (19 April). This figure is reported by The Guardian as of Thursday afternoon, although some sources give a higher death toll. The crush took place at the Maeen school in central Sanaa as hundreds of people gathered in a narrow street to get charity handouts worth $9 from a merchant to celebrate the end of the holy month of Ramadan, known as Eid al-Fitr. On top of the at least 85 confirmed dead, The Guardian reports that some 322 were injured, 50 of whom critically so.  The rebel Houthi movement has controlled Sanaa since the start of the war in Yemen in 2014. The head of their Supreme Revolutionary Council, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, said the merchant received people via a back gate that was reached by a narrow street and steps, resulting in overcrowding and a crush when the gate was opened. The Associated Press meanwhile have quoted two witnesses who said that the crush began after Houthi forces fired into the air at an attempt at crowd control, allegedly hitting an electrical wire, causing an explosion and leading to panic.

The last two weeks have seen missed opportunities for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, and for the Georgian government to establish facts and proving the truth over the US sanctioning of four Georgian judges, writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. Instead of building trust and confidence, the burning of the Azerbaijani flag at the European Weightlifting Championships in Yerevan "further entrenched the enemy imagery". Meanwhile in Georgia, "by obstructing the establishment of a parliamentary investigative commission to assess the US accusations against Georgian judges, the Georgian government missed an opportunity to deal openly and transparently with what is clearly a very sensitive and controversial issue."

Sudan is entering its third day of fighting after tensions between leaders of Sudan's army and a rival paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted into violence in the capital, Khartoum, on Saturday (15 April). According to the Sudanese doctors' union, at least 100 civilians have died during the violence despite a temporary ceasefire observed on Sunday to allow the wounded to be evacuated. Violence erupted in the capital city of Khartoum on Saturday after the army and a rival paramilitary group failed to reach an agreement concerning the transfer to civilian rule of the country. Since a coup in October 2021, Sudan has been run by a council of generals, and two military men at the centre of the dispute. On the one hand, there is General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who is the head of the armed forces and in effect the country's president, and on the other is his deputy and leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti. The violence has led to international calls for peace to be restored. The former Sudanese Foreign Minister Mariam al-Sadiq al-Mahdi said, "the army must go back to the barracks and civilians must rule for a transitional period for a short time, then move to free and fair elections."