Domestic Politics

Parliamentary Elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia next Sunday (7 June). The Armenians will vote for a new parliament, and the leader of the winning party will become the prime minister, and will form the government. The incumbent, Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in a peaceful “velvet” revolution in 2018, is defending his eventful record against a spirited, well resourced, opposition. The Armenian people have a choice in the coming election, and a clear one. It is important to state clearly, and at the outset, that it is up to the Armenian to make this choice. Outsiders should not interfere. The next Armenian government will have important choices to make, at both the domestic and international level, and it must have the clear mandate, and the legitimacy of a popular vote, to deliver these choices. But it seems that this does not fit the needs of Putin’s Russia. Over the last days Russia has openly interfered in Armenian politics, using the leverages it accumulated over the years. Putin has made it clear that he will not tolerate an independent minded Armenian government. Armenia was since its independence in 1991, a compliant “partner” of Russia, and fitted into Vladimir Putin’s grand strategy of surrounding Russia with countries, that whilst nominally independent, depended on Russia for their defence, economy, foreign policy, and indeed for their survival. Any attempts at independent thinking or action was to be crushed. Look what happened to Ukraine. Armenia was told bluntly that the same could happen to it. Armenia’s big “sin” was that it expressed the wish to join the European Union. Everyone knows that this was an aspiration, rather than a decision. EU membership takes years, decades even, to negotiate. If the process starts officially now, and it has not, it will probably take twenty years to become a reality. But Putin is not taking chances. He will not allow Armenia to escape Russian clutches, even if that escape is only aspirational. Russia is trying to intimidate the Armenian people, prior to Sunday’s vote., accompanied by a barrage of disinformation emanating from Moscow, This process must be watched carefully. Western leaders have visited Armenia in the last month, for the EPC Summit, for the Armenia-EU summit, and most recently last week the short visit of US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Their presence in Yerevan was a message to Moscow: we will not allow you to do in Armenia what you did in Ukraine. Sunday, the Armenian people, will make their decision. They should be allowed to make that decision freely, and without pressure. Everyone should thereafter respect that decision. (Click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full, or listen to the audio).

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia are no longer being discussed only within Armenia itself. Today, the Armenian vote is being closely watched in Azerbaijan, Russia, Türkiye, across Europe, and in the United States. This is not simply another domestic electoral cycle in a small South Caucasus country. It is an event capable of influencing the future geopolitical architecture of the entire region. At the same time, its significance should neither be exaggerated nor underestimated. For the first time in Armenia’s modern political history, an incumbent leader is approaching elections with an agenda centred on peace and normalisation rather than conflict management or historical mobilisation. This distinction is important. The 2021 elections were not about peace. In the aftermath of the 2020 Karabakh war, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was effectively seeking a mandate connected to the preservation of the Karabakh issue and to a broader post-war political framework shaped by remedial secession narratives. The current political moment is fundamentally different. What is now emerging is a debate not only about political leadership, but about Armenia’s entire geopolitical worldview and strategic self-perception. (To read the full commentary, click on the image above.)