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Not quite there yet!

Not quite there yet!

The presidents of Ukraine and the United States were both upbeat after their talks on Sunday (28 December), but clearly there is yet no agreement on how to end the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky said progress had been made during Florida talks but the US president admitted the problem of territory remained "unresolved". While both the US and Ukrainian presidents described the talks as "great", Trump said "one or two very thorny issues" remained outstanding - most notably on the issue of land. Addressing reporters at Mar-a-Lago, Zelensky said they had come to an agreement on "90%" of the 20-point peace plan, while Trump said a security guarantee for Ukraine was "close to 95%" done. Zelensky later said US and Ukrainian teams would meet next week for further talks on issues aimed at ending Russia's nearly four-year war in Ukraine. "We had a substantive conversation on all issues and highly value the progress that the Ukrainian and American teams have made over the past weeks," Zelensky said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Moscow currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory. A proposal to turn the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which Russia largely controls, into a demilitarised zone remains "unresolved", Trump said. "Some of that land has been taken," he told reporters after the meeting. "Some of that land is maybe up for grabs, but it may be taken over the next period of a number of months." Moscow currently controls about 75% of the Donetsk region, and some 99% of the neighbouring Luhansk. The regions are collectively known as Donbas. Russia wants Ukraine to pull back from the small part of the territory it still controls in Donbas, while Kyiv has insisted the area could become a free economic zone policed by Ukrainian forces. The US president has repeatedly changed his own position on Ukraine's lost territories, and in September stunned observers by suggesting that Ukraine might be able to take it back. He later reversed course. "[That] is a very tough issue," he said. "One that will get resolved." Security guarantees for Ukraine are "95% done", Trump said, without formally committing to logistical support or troop deployment to help protect Ukraine from future attacks. Trump floated the possibility of trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, saying it could happen "at the right time". Immediately after their bilateral talks, Trump and Zelensky held a one hour meeting with European leaders. European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote on X "We had a good hour-long conversation with President Trump and Zelensky. Several European leaders were present and discussed future peace talks. Good progress has been made. Europe stands ready to work with its partners to consolidate this."  
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Israel recognises Somaliland, opening a pandora's box in Africa

Israel recognises Somaliland, opening a pandora's box in Africa

Israel ‍has recognized Somaliland as an "independent and sovereign state," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday. "Together with Foreign Minister Sa'ar and the President of the Republic of Somaliland, we signed a joint and mutual declaration," Netanyahu posted to X. "This declaration is in the spirit of the Abraham Accords signed at the initiative of President Trump," he said. In doing so, Israel became the first country to recognize the breakaway region. Somalia's Foreign Ministry denounced Israel's "deliberate attack" on its sovereignty and warned that recognizing Somaliland as an independent state would "undermine regional peace." "Illegitimate actions of this nature seriously undermine regional peace and stability, exacerbate political and security tensions," the ministry said in a statement. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said he held phone calls with his counterparts from Somalia, Turkey and Djibouti to discuss what they described as dangerous developments in the Horn of Africa, following Israel's announcement The ministers condemned Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, reaffirmed their full support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, and warned that recognizing breakaway regions poses a threat to international peace and security, Egypt's Foreign Ministry said. "This initiative by Israel, which aligns with its expansionist policy and its efforts to do everything to prevent the recognition of a Palestinian state, constitutes overt interference in Somalia's domestic affairs," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.  The African Union (AU) joined the condemnations of Israel's recognition of Somaliland.  "Any attempt to undermine the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Somalia... risks setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching implications for peace and stability across the continent," an AU statement read. Israel said that it has now established diplomatic relations with Somaliland, and the two will soon set up embassies. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that by recognising Somaliland Israel has opened Africa's pandora's box. "The borders of most African countries were drawn in colonial times, and in the post-colonial period of the last seventy years, these borders have been considered sacrosanct. The two exceptions are also to be found in the Horn of Africa, where Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia and South Sudan broke away from Sudan." (click the image to read the full article).

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UN to investigate deadly attack which Iraq blames on Turkey

UN to investigate deadly attack which Iraq blames on Turkey

UN Security Council members have backed Iraq’s demand for a major investigation into a deadly July 20 artillery attack on a tourist area popular with Iraqis in the mountainous Duhok governorate of the Kurdistan region that left at least nine people dead and 23 others wounded. It comes only days after the Security Council unanimously condemned the attack “in the strongest terms.” However, council members did not mention Turkey during the emergency meeting late on Tuesday that was sought by Iraq and the UAE to discuss the attack. On the day of the strike, Baghdad summoned Turkey’s ambassador to condemn what it described as a “heinous crime committed by the Turkish troops, which has topped its continuous aggressions on the sovereignty of Iraq and its territories.”   Turkey has denied responsibility, and blames the Kurdistan’s Workers’ Party, which it considers a terrorist organization, for the attack. The PKK has been engaged in a long-running guerrilla war in southeast Turkey. Iraq does not give sanctuary to PKK fighters or its leadership, many of whom take refuge in the mountains where the borders of Iraq, Iran and Turkey meet. Baghdad has repeatedly rejected their presence on its territory. On Wednesday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry condemned an attack on its Consulate-General in Mosul the night before and called for the Iraqi authorities to take steps to protect its diplomatic missions.
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Kazakhstan works to expand co-operation with Gulf countries during Tokayev's visit to Saudi Arabia

Kazakhstan works to expand co-operation with Gulf countries during Tokayev's visit to Saudi Arabia

Kazakh president, Kassym Jomart Tokayev, on Sunday (24 July) concluded an official visit to Saudi Arabia during which he sought to strengthen relations with the Kingdom and other Gulf countries Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan will enhance mutual trade and investment in several sectors, according to a joint statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency at the end of the visit. This cooperation includes areas related to petrochemicals, renewable energy, mining, agriculture, tourism, transport and logistics. Other agreements cover information technology, digital transformation, financial services and space, SPA reported. During his visit President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held wide-ranging talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The two countries signed several agreements and memoranda of cooperation in sports, media, medicine and finance. The also agreed to enhance cooperation in higher education, research and innovation.
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Yemen braces itself for different scenarios as deadline for expiration of truce looms

Yemen braces itself for different scenarios as deadline for expiration of truce looms

The UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg has intensified contacts with all local and regional parties to support the implementation of the remaining clauses in Yemen's soon to expire truce. Grunderberg hopes that the truce can be extended beyond the current term which ends on 2 August.  Grundberg acknowledged that there were shortcomings in the full implementation of the truce but stressed repeatedly that the truce helped make a significant impact on people's lives. Read the full press release here.  On the thorny question of the opening of the Taiz road, Grunderb noted that dialogue and coordination between the two sides needs to continue. He added that unilateral actions do not help provide a safe passage for goods and travellers.  Sources speaking to the publication The New Arab suggested that the UN is seeking a six month extension of the truce. The Special Envoy, however, has to first address complaints from both sides. It is expected that he visits both Muscat and Aden in the coming days.  On another note, forces loyal to Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) which heads the internationally recognised Yemeni government, are said to be preparing for the next wave of battles. Around 14 thousand fighters, divided into three brigades and supported by Saudi Arabia, have completed training and are on stand by in areas under the government's control. The brigades, known as 'Happy Yemen Brigades' are believed to be an extension to forces that engaged in battles in early 2022 before the truce went into effect.  Currently, those brigades are tasked with security and protection missions and it is not clear if they will be assigned any frontline duties.
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The unlikely trio met in Tehran

The unlikely trio met in Tehran

A summit meeting of the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran took place in Tehran on Tuesday 19 July. This is an unlikely trio, three ambitious regional powers who have been brought together by circumstances. The event itself was a set-piece affair, and most of the serious work was done in the bilateral Iran-Russia, Iran-Turkey and Turkey-Russia meetings. Top of the agenda was Syria, and Turkey's determination not to allow Syria to be a springboard for Kurdish militant activity against it. Turkey has for weeks been preparing for a military operation into Syria. Turkish president, Recip Tayip Erdogan told his Russian and Iranian counterparts that he expected their full support in Ankara’s fight against “terrorists” in Syria. Both Russia and Iran have a military presence in parts of Syria mentioned as possible targets of Turkey’s new assault. “What we expect from Russia and Iran is their support for Turkey in its fight against terrorism,” Erdogan said. However, in a meeting with Erdogan on Monday (18 July), Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei told Erdogan such an offensive would be “detrimental” for the region and called for the issue to be resolved through dialogue between Ankara, Damascus, Moscow and Tehran. A 16 point statement was issued at the end of the summit which makes no reference to the imminent Turkish offensive.
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EU and Azerbaijan seal strategic partnership agreement on energy security

EU and Azerbaijan seal strategic partnership agreement on energy security

After years of uncertainty in EU-Azerbaijan relations, co-operation between the two sides has finally been put on a strategic footing with the signing in Baku on Monday (19 July) of a new "Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy". The signing of the MOU comes at a crucial time when Europe is frantically trying to replace gas and other energy supplies from Russia, in the aftermath of the latter's invasion of Ukraine. A report on the website of the European Commission said that the memorandum signed by the two Presidents today includes a commitment to double the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor to deliver at least 20 billion cubic metres to the EU annually by 2027. This will contribute to the diversification objectives in the REPowerEU Plan and help Europe to end its dependency on Russian gas. Based on the strengthened energy cooperation, Azerbaijan is already now increasing deliveries of natural gas to the EU, from 8.1 billion cubic metres in 2021 to an expected 12 bcm in 2022. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that "EU-Azerbaijan relations need to continue to be build, based on mutual respect and recognising the importance of people to people contacts for the future of the relationship. The EU on its part, especially now that the stakes are higher, needs to put more efforts in supporting lasting peace in the region. The energy agenda has its specific importance and aspects, but it cannot be seen in isolation of wider issues."
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Opinion: Realism should be the basis for the Armenia-Turkey normalisation process

Opinion: Realism should be the basis for the Armenia-Turkey normalisation process

"There should be realistic expectations of what can result from ongoing discussions on the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Turkey", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. The potential normalisation of relations – establishment of diplomatic relations, and opening of land borders – does not mean that Armenia and Turkey will not have disagreements, contradictions, or even will not act against each other in particular circumstances. "Given the current situation in the South Caucasus, the region is far away from peace, and no one should have hopes that Armenia – Turkey normalization will solve conflicts and bring an era of peace to the region. However, in the current situation, even a contribution to regional stability is too significant an opportunity to miss."    
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Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia opens a new era in relations

Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia opens a new era in relations

It is not a coincidence that on his first trip to the Middle East since becoming US president, Joe Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia. Together with relations with Israel, relations with the Kingdom have been the cornerstone of US policy in the region. Over the last two years these relations were tested with trust between the two sides falling to its lowest level for decades. The visit appears to have succeeded in bringing relations back to a qualitatively high level. On Friday (15 July) Biden met King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. On Saturday he is due to meet with other Arab leaders at a summit that will bring together the leaders of the sic GCC countries, together with Egypt, Jordan and Iraq. A joint communique published by the Saudi Press Agency early on Saturday emphasised that the “US-Saudi partnership has been a cornerstone of regional security over decades, and affirmed that the two countries share a vision of a more secure, stable, and prosperous region, interconnected with the world,”  The document highlighted various areas of cooperation from energy security to space exploration. In the area of defense, Biden reaffirmed the US’ commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security and territorial defense, and “facilitating the Kingdom’s ability to obtain necessary capabilities to defend its people and territory against external threats” The statement said that US troops will depart from Tiran Island paving the way for it to be developed. Additionally, overflights of the Kingdom’s airspace was expanded on Friday, which the US welcomed.
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Opinion: Azerbaijan boosts ties with Central Asia as region adjusts to Ukraine crisis

Opinion: Azerbaijan boosts ties with Central Asia as region adjusts to Ukraine crisis

The fall-out from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has impacted all countries across the region. Azerbaijan and the Central Asian republics have stepped up their co-operation using multiple formats. "Amid the present security challenges in the region it is high time for Azerbaijan and the Central Asian countries to deepen bonds and ensure their security and prosperity, writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu