Diplomacy

Russia is worried that the success of European diplomacy in approximating the positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the prospect of a peace agreement before the end of the year, would see it elbowed out of the South Caucasus. Russia may use its presence in Karabakh to throw spokes in the wheel, writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "This situation seriously threatens peace and stability in the South Caucasus. The region would  descend into a catastrophic escalations if the present peace efforts fail, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict becomes another theater of the Russia-West confrontation. Baku and Yerevan, having declared their willingness to recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, would suffer the most from such a situation. Hence, both should make efforts to reach a deal with a delicate geopolitical balance", he writes.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and his Greek counterpart Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos, met on Thursday (13 October) on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in Brussels, amid ongoing tensions between their two countries. The meeting between the two ministers comes as the two countries amid ongoing disagreements between Athens and Ankara on a range of issues, including the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus, migrant pushbacks and more. Both ministers were in Brussels to attend the Meeting of NATO Ministers of Defence. The two uneasy NATO neighbors have long-standing sea and air boundary disputes which lead to near-daily air force patrols and interception missions mostly around Greek islands near Turkey's coastline. The situation exacerbated recently as both sides started deploying troops on small islands in the Aegean that up to now have been largely demilitarised.

Russia found itself in the company of only four other countries at a vote at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday (12 October) which condemned its annexation of Ukrainian territory The resolution calls on all States, the UN and international organisations not to recognize any of Russia’s annexation claim and demands the immediate reversal of its annexation declaration. 143 courties supported the resolution that condemned Russia's annexations. The four countries that supported Russia were Belarus, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Syria 35 countries abstained, namely: Algeria, Armenia, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Republic of the Congo, Cuba, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lesotho, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Pakistan, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe. Ten countries were absent and so their vote was not recorded. They were: Azerbaijan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Djibouti, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Sao Tome and Principle, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.

The sixth summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) started on Wednesday (12 October) in Astana. The summit marks the 30th anniversary of CICA, and the end of Kazakhstan’s two-year chairmanship of the conference. The summit is also expected to agree the transformation of the process into a fully fledged international organisation. According to the spokesperson of the Kazakh Foreign Ministry Aibek Smadiyarov, the summit will welcome 11 heads of state, including the leaders of Azerbaijan, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, Palestine, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will participate as an observer and the Vice Presidents of Vietnam and China will also attend the summit. 

Leaders of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United States, United Kingdom, together with the European Union) met virtually in extraordinary session on Monday to discuss developments in the Ukraine situation, and particularly the recent Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. The meeting was convened by Germany which holds the current chairmanship of the Group. In a tough statement, the G7 leaders said that Russia has blatantly violated the principles enshrined in the UN Charter and called upon all countries to unequivocally reject these violations of international law and demand that Russia cease all hostilities and immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its troops and military equipment from Ukraine. The statement also had a word of warning for Russia: "We deplore deliberate Russian escalatory steps, including the partial mobilisation of reservists and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, which is putting global peace and security at risk. We reaffirm that any use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by Russia would be met with severe consequences". Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky also attended the virtual summit and he was assured that the G7 countries are undeterred and steadfast in their commitment to provide the support Ukraine needs to uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), met in Moscow on Tuesday (11 October) with president Valdimir Putin of Russia. Putin warmly greeted his UAE guest at the Kostantinovsky Palace. The visit comes as Gulf states ponder about the new world order, Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world order that had emerged at the end of the Cold War had clearly run out of steam. Russia and the West, instead of partners in the international system through membership of the G8, cooperation in space, and extensive arms control agreements, became first rivals, and, since February this year, enemies. China, whose rise over the last four decades as an economic power was first admired, has subsequently become a “systematic rival”. As it verges on superpower status it has become more assertive and less predictable. The US and its allies are seriously worried.  For the countries of the Gulf this new world order is uncharted waters. During the Cold War the Gulf was first a British lake, and later an American one. The American shield protected the Gulf states against intruders. When Iraq invaded Kuwait and occupied it in 1990, the US and its allies led the international community in a fightback, and Saddam Hussein was driven back across the border with a bloody nose. When he tried to rear his head again, the West finished him off. Then there was Iran. A huge American presence, with other allies in the wings, saw off Iranian ambitions in the region. It seemed that US-GCC relations were set in stone. Yet as the world reverted back to a multipolar state - the parameters of which are as yet undefined - it was only the naïve who thought that the GCC states will simply slide back to their old role of doing the USA's bidding in return for protection. Things in the Gulf have changed dramatically in the last six decades, and in the last decade in particular, in political terms the region is unrecognisable. In Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Doha and elsewhere the national interest has been re-defined. 

On 6 October in Prague, the leaders of 44 European countries gathered in the historic settings of Prague Castle for the first meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). Such an initiative was needed. The war in Ukraine, Russia’s bellicose postures, and the threat of an energy crisis caused by the disruption of Russian energy supplies have helped focus the minds of European leaders. Prague offered an opportunity to discuss and analyse and approximate positions. Important discussions on the margins of the main event, such as the quadripartite meeting with Armenia and Azerbaijan and the Turkey-Armenia leaders meeting, contributed to the process of resolving some of the more intractable problems of the last decades. The work of the European Political Community needs now to be taken forward. In future, the biggest task of the EPC will be to engage Russia. But not yet. For the moment the Community has done what is needed, which is to contribute to build a united front against Russian aggression in Ukraine. It must continue to do so until Russian aggression ends.