Diplomacy

Events of the past year have unleashed a new "Great Game" in Central Asia, writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. "The plan, it seems, builds on China’s “Belt and Road” programme, but there also now appears to be a much stronger political angle to China’s engagement. China is worried that Russia’s increasing weakness is creating a vacuum in Central Asia that others may be tempted to fill. It is determined to get there first. China’s approach seems to be to keep the west out, the Russians down, and everyone else on the margin." There is little doubt that the big loser in this “great game in the new era” is Russia. But the Kremlin at this point has little choice but to try to cut its losses. It desperately needs China’s support - at least economically, politically and diplomatically, if not militarily - as it tries to sort out the mess it created for itself in Ukraine, and resist Western sanctions imposed after its invasion.

Qatar and Bahrain have announced that they have agreed on restoring diplomatic ties after a meeting on Wednesday (12 April) at the headquarters of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) General Secretariat in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. According to a statement released by the Qatari foreign ministry, both sides agreed to "enhance the Gulf unity and integration according to the GCC Charter". The agreement ends a dispute that began in 2017, when Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, imposed a diplomatic blockade on Qatar alleging it had worked to support "terrorism", backed hardline groups, maintained too close ties with Iran, and had meddled in those countries' internal affairs. Doha has always firmly denied the allegations. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt had banned Qatari planes and ships from using their airspace and waters, as well as cutting trade links. All but Bahrain resumed these ties in 2021, however, but UAE and Qatar have not yet opened their respective embassies. The agreement between Bahrain and Qatar is the latest in a series of regional rapprochements. Most significant was the 10 March deal struck between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalise relations between them. 

Although we are in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan, and peace is in the air across the whole of the Muslim Middle East, commonspace.eu writes in this editorial that "problems are being patched up, not resolved. Many of the causes or factors that triggered the conflicts in the first place remain as acute as ever. But for the moment the region is exhausted. Visionary leaders need time and space to implement their reforms; others such as the Iranian clerical regime, need time to regroup after being rattled by internal and external turmoil. There is then the issue of the wider picture. The Gulf region has for decades been the epicentre of geopolitical rivalry, which often overspilled into violence. It appears to be now losing this unenviable role. Open warfare is ongoing on the European continent following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is unlikely to end any time soon."

The European and Global international system is broken. Whilst others have contributed to its decline and subversion in the past, it was Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and other parts of the former Soviet space before that, that have dealt it the decisive fatal blow."What is desperately needed in the international system are rules, and the mechanism to ensure that these rules are abided with", writes Dennis Sammut in today's Monday Commentary. "Multi-polarity may sound like an attractive solution, especially to small countries who have been under pressure from bigger players or international actors, but with closer inspection, on its own, it is not."

The imposition of US sanctions against four Georgian judges now makes the rift between the US and Georgian governments formal, writes commonspace.eu in this commentary. "It will have consequences, and both sides have much to lose. The GD government may decide to drift further away from the US. Given that any relations with Moscow remain, in Georgian domestic political terms, toxic, its room for manoeuvre is limited. That does not mean that most Georgians want their country to become a US client state either. But it is unlikely that Georgian nationalist sensibilities are going to be disturbed by the fact that Judge Maisuradze and company cannot travel to the US. But there are always things the GD government can do, some without too much attention in the public eye, to further erode US influence. Weakening the two pillars of US engagement with Georgia is now likely to become a GD priority."

Finland has officially joined the NATO military alliance after handing over the instrument of accession in a ceremony at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday (4 April). Finland has therefore become the 31st member of the bloc, and in doing so has doubled the length of NATO's border with Russia. Previously, the only NATO member states who shared a border with Russia were Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. "It’s a great day for Finland and an important day for Nato,” said Finland’s president, Sauli Niinistö. "Russia tried to create a sphere around them and … we’re not a sphere. I’m sure Finns themselves feel more secure that we are living in a more stable world." The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, "This will make Finland safer and NATO stronger...President Putin had a declared goal of the invasion of Ukraine to get less Nato along its borders and no more membership in Europe, he's getting exactly the opposite." Finland and their nordic neighbour Sweden both abandoned decades of military non-alignment to apply for NATO after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. With an active force of about 30,000, and able to call on 250,000 reserves, Finland has a well-equipped and trained armed forces.