Diplomacy

In his interview to Azerbaijani media on January 7 this year, President Aliyev touched upon the issue of the upcoming Trump administration, notably speaking about his positive expectations, up to the prospects of establishing strategic partnership relations. This statement was rather unexpected, given many recent tensions between Baku and Washington, including the spat with the U.S. Embassy and the Azerbaijani side’s refusal to hold a US-mediated meeting of foreign ministers with Armenia during the OSCE Summit in Malta. Back then, Azerbaijani MFA issued a statement saying that the four years of the Biden administration were “lost years” for the Azerbaijan-US relations.

The Council of the European Union has decided to suspend parts of the EU-Georgia visa facilitation agreement leading to Georgian diplomats and officials having to apply for visa when travelling to the EU. "For travels to a member state which has reintroduced visa requirements, Georgian diplomats and officials will also no longer benefit from shorter application times, lower visa fees, and the possibility to submit fewer supporting documents," a Council statement announced on Monday.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region. Such a move is supported by some in Armenia amid disillusionment with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) following the 2020 war with Azerbaijan and a 2022 incursion into Armenia itself.

In his first engagement with the international community after being sworn in as Secretary of State, Marko Rubio hosted the foreign ministers of India, Japan and Australia, for a meeting of the quad, the mechanism that unites the four countries and that is becoming increasingly important. At the end of the meeting the four foreign ministers issued a short statement:

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia has decided to adopt a foreign policy that is balanced between relations with the European Union and Russia. He added that balanced relations are also being created at the regional level notably with Iran, by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey and concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said this approach is not easy but also not impossible adding that Armenia is being transparent with all its international partners about its intentions. “Yes, we have decided to get closer to the European Union, but we are very intensively trying to share our position with Iran and Russia and with all our partners”, Pashinyan stated.

A second Trump presidency is unlikely to bring a sharp focus to the South Caucasus and American policy for the region will hinge on existing bipartisan frameworks and congressional initiatives rather than direct presidential involvement, according to an analysis by Vita van Dreven of The Hague Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. She explores how the Trump presidency might impact the South Caucasus, analysing potential policy directions and their implications for the region:

Donald Trump aged 78 was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and pledged in his inauguration address to rescue America from what he described as years of betrayal and decline, prioritizing a crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump declared his intention to sign a number of executive actions in his first hours as president, including a number focused on border security and immigration, his top priority. Trump announced a "national emergency" at the US-Mexico border, declared drug cartels as terrorists, and will scrap government diversity programmes. His vice president, JD Vance, was sworn in just before him.

Donald Trump aged 78 was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and pledged in his inauguration address to rescue America from what he described as years of betrayal and decline, prioritizing a crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump declared his intention to sign a number of executive actions in his first hours as president, including a number focused on border security and immigration, his top priority. Trump announced a "national emergency" at the US-Mexico border, declared drug cartels as terrorists, and will scrap government diversity programmes. His vice president, JD Vance, was sworn in just before him.

The working visit by the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze to Azerbaijan on January 17 suggests that both countries recognise that close cooperation is essential for ensuring stability and fostering prosperity in the region. During the visit, Kobakhidze met with Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov and participated in a session of the joint intergovernmental commission, which included delegations from both countries. The discussions revolved around the partnership between the two countries, bolstering trade and economic ties, as well as expanding cooperation in the energy and transportation sectors.