Conflict and Peace

The earthquake that hit Turkey and parts of Syria on 6 February was a massive tragedy. As of Thursday (16 February) it has left nearly fifty thousand people dead, many tens of thousands injured and millions affected directly or indirectly. The world rallied around the beleaguered communities, putting aside political differences and diplomatic obstacles. The impact of the earthquake on Turkey was enormous. Ten out of eighty one Turkish provinces were affected, and some Turkish towns were wiped away almost completely. Humanitarian aid started pouring into Turkey from every part of the world. The contribution of one small neighbouring country was particularly significant, not only as part of the humanitarian effort, but also for its political and diplomatic symbolism. Armenia and Turkey have had a difficult relationship for decades. The two neighbouring countries do not have diplomatic relations. Their borders are closed. Recent attempts to normalise relations appeared to be moving at very slow speed – both sides having to manoeuvre around many sensitive issues, and a heavy baggage of history. It took an earthquake to jolt relations out of decades of animosity.

Russia has unleashed a 15th wave of missile strikes against Ukraine overnight on Thursday (16 February) after reportedly sustaining very heavy losses in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. According to the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces Valery Zaluzhny, overnight Russia launched 36 air and sea-based cruise, guided air-to-surface, and anti-ship missiles. He added that 16 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defence. In a post on Telegram on Thursday morning, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said, "the situation [in the East] is tense. Yes, it is difficult for us. But our fighters are not allowing the enemy to achieve their goals and are inflicting very serious losses." The latest wave of strikes comes after the military think tank, The Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests that Moscow's has lost as much as 50% of its pre-invasion fleet of modern T-72B3 and T-72B3M main battle tanks. Meanwhile, the UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has suggested that as many as two-thirds of Russia's tanks could be either "destroyed or broken". Speaking to the BBC on Wednesday (15 February), Mr Wallace added that they believe that as much as 97% of Russia's entire army are now in Ukraine. 

The Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Mevlut Cavusoglu and Ararat Mirzoyan have met in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Wednesday (15 February). The meeting followed an announcement from Armenian officials that a second Armenian aid convoy crossed the land border into Turkey late on Tuesday after the devastating 6 February earthquake which has killed over 40,000 people across Turkey and Syria. The meeting is being seen as a major development in the normalisation of ties between the two countries who do not enjoy any formal diplomatic relations and who remain divided over a number of issues. Mirzoyan expressed his "condolences to the families of the many thousands of victims of the devastating earthquake, the people and government of Turkey, and I wish swift recovery to all those injured." Recalling the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia that killed over 20,000 people, Mirzoyan said, "I believe that the international community must not remain indifferent towards any humanitarian crisis happening anywhere around the globe. And it was by this very principle that immediately after the devastating earthquake the government of Armenia made a decision to send rescuers and humanitarian aid to Turkey."

The Secretary of Armenia’s Security Council Armen Grigoryan has told journalists at a briefing on Tuesday (14 February) that Armenia is "ready"  for opening of the shared border with Turkey and normalisation of relations any time. "The Armenian and Turkish sides are holding discussions on the issue and will continue the discussions, hoping that it will take place as soon as possible," Grigoryan said. He added that an agreement on opening the border for nationals of third countries had indeed been reached last year between Armenia and Turkey, but said that no timeframe was discussed. The agreement was struck in July 2022, but changes on the ground have not yet materialised. Tweeting early in the morning on Wednesday, the Spokesperson for the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Vahan Hunanyan announced, "Armenia continues sending humanitarian aid to earthquake-affected regions. Late last night, trucks loaded with the second batch of humanitarian aid crossed the Armenian-Turkish border through the Margara bridge."

In this piece for commonspace.eu, Mohammed Abdulmughni discusses why past attempts at brokering peace in Yemen's current civil war have failed. Part of the problem is the failure to address root causes, and numerous economic factors also serve as catalysts for the war, he argues. Wars often break out when the various ambitions of two or more opposing parties are irreconcilable by peaceful means. These ambitions could be related to territorial expansion, continuing a legacy of enacting “historical revenge” on the opposing party, or tyrannical desires based on ethnic and religious fanaticism. While wars can flare up quickly, stopping them on the other hand is almost always slow and difficult. This has been the case for almost all wars across history. The Yemeni war is no exception. Indeed, the Yemeni war has many complex and overlapping dimensions, as has been noted by many observers and political analysts.

The Margara-Alican border bridge connecting Armenia and Turkey has been opened to allow five Armenian aid trucks to pass to the Turkish regions affected by the magnitude 7.8 earthquake on Monday (6 February). It is the first time the Turkey-Armenia border has been opened in 30 years. "Trucks with humanitarian aid have crossed the Margara bridge on the border and are on their way to the earthquake-stricken region," Vahan Hunanyan, a spokesperson for Armenia’s Foreign Ministry, wrote on Twitter. Serdar Kılıç, Ankara’s special envoy to Yerevan, hailed the arrival of the aid trucks, writing on Twitter that he "will always remember the generous aid sent by the people of Armenia to help alleviate the sufferings of our people in the earthquake-striken region in Türkiye." The bridge, which connects the village of Margara in Armenia with the village of Alican in Turkey, had been closed since 1993, when Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in protest at the First Karabakh War.