Conflict and Peace

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago the prevalent feeling among the Arab Gulf states was that they did not want to get involved.  Some thought the best policy was to ignore it, others that they should at the very least dodge it, and some even saw in it some opportunity to extend relations with Russia and China.  There were a number of reasons for this. The region was frustrated with how the west dealt with it. It expected a more equal relationship that never properly materialised. There was fatigue at western attempts – some clearly ill-judged – at interfering in the Arab region, and conversely, disappointment at western failure to stand up to Iran. The unsightly US departure from Afghanistan, and talk of American strategic re-positioning, convinced some that the American moment in the Gulf had passed.

The Ukrainian military repelled 60 Russian attacks in five areas over the past 24 hours in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its morning update on Tuesday (28 February). Ukraine repelled the attacks near Kupyansk in eastern Kharkiv Oblast as well as Lyman, Bakhmut, Adviika, and Shakhtarsk in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia is concentrating its main offensive efforts, according to the General Staff. Russian troops reportedly carried out eight missile attacks, 32 air strikes, and launched more than 85 attacks using multiple launch rocket systems  between 27 and 28 February, the statement said. Meanwhile, in his daily address on the evening of 27 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the situation in the Bakhmut direction is "getting more and more difficult". He added that Russia "is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense". The commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said the situation around Bakhmut is "extremely tense". Russia has been trying to take the medium-sized industrial town with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 for over six months, and has long been a location where the front line has been the most active. 

There is intense diplomatic activity in the South Caucasus ahead of a likely resumption in direct negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an effort to normalise relations between them after decades of war. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that synchronising the various elements that are part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement process is always difficult, and the international context also continues to complicate matters. But there is a new sense of expectation in the air that the next days and weeks can bring about the long expected breakthrough.

One year has passed since Vladimir Putin’s Russia attacked Ukraine, plunging Europe into a war that has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands, and devastated a whole country. Putin expected Ukraine to fall into his lap within hours. It didn’t. It resisted heroically. He also expected Europe, the United States and the rest of the international community to give a muddled response, and for things to be back to business as usual within weeks. It did not happen. The response of Europe, the United States and similarly minded countries was fast, resolute and robust. Having grossly miscalculated, Putin had two choices: to admit his mistake and recalibrate, or, to persist, and to keep digging despite the fact that he was clearly in a hole. Most countries have internal corrective systems that in such situations keep leaders in check. In Russia no such systems exist. So Putin keeps digging himself into a hole by threatening to escalate. What has been clear from day one, is that this is not simply Ukraine’s war. Countries can have disputes, and sometimes they also go to war with each other. Usually the world stands by and tries to bring the belligerents to the negotiating table and to restore peace.

This week the European Union deployed its unarmed monitoring mission in Armenia with a mandate for two years.  EUMA -  EU Mission in Armenia - was formally established by a Council Decision on 23 January 2023. According to the EU, “through its deployment on the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it aims to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia, build confidence and human security in conflict affected areas, and ensure an environment conducive to the normalisation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan supported by the EU.” The decision to deploy a longer term mission is a bold step on the part of the EU. It is necessary and underpins the EU commitment to long term peace in the region. But it would be wrong not to mention that the mission is fraught with risks, which need to be managed.

The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has arrived in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Thursday (23 February), one day before the one year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The visit from PM Sanchez comes one day after Spain confirmed that it would send six refurbished Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, with the goal to have the tanks in Ukraine by the end of March or early April. Writing on Twitter, PM Sanchez said, "We will stand by Ukraine and its people until peace returns to Europe." He has also visited Bucha, the Kyiv suburb infamously known as the site of many alleged Russian war crimes against civilians in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion. "Bucha and Irpin show the wounds and scars of Putin's barbarism. Russia is not going to win this war. All of Spain is with Ukraine," he said. Sanchez's visit is the latest in a number of high-profile visits to Kyiv in the run up to the 24 February. US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit on Monday during which he pledged another $500m of military aid. Then, on Tuesday, the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Kyiv for talks with President Zelensky, during which she pledged to continue supporting Ukraine in resisting Russian attacks but ruled out offering fighter jets.