Conflict and Peace

Events of the past year have unleashed a new "Great Game" in Central Asia, writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. "The plan, it seems, builds on China’s “Belt and Road” programme, but there also now appears to be a much stronger political angle to China’s engagement. China is worried that Russia’s increasing weakness is creating a vacuum in Central Asia that others may be tempted to fill. It is determined to get there first. China’s approach seems to be to keep the west out, the Russians down, and everyone else on the margin." There is little doubt that the big loser in this “great game in the new era” is Russia. But the Kremlin at this point has little choice but to try to cut its losses. It desperately needs China’s support - at least economically, politically and diplomatically, if not militarily - as it tries to sort out the mess it created for itself in Ukraine, and resist Western sanctions imposed after its invasion.

Sudan is entering its third day of fighting after tensions between leaders of Sudan's army and a rival paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted into violence in the capital, Khartoum, on Saturday (15 April). According to the Sudanese doctors' union, at least 100 civilians have died during the violence despite a temporary ceasefire observed on Sunday to allow the wounded to be evacuated. Violence erupted in the capital city of Khartoum on Saturday after the army and a rival paramilitary group failed to reach an agreement concerning the transfer to civilian rule of the country. Since a coup in October 2021, Sudan has been run by a council of generals, and two military men at the centre of the dispute. On the one hand, there is General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who is the head of the armed forces and in effect the country's president, and on the other is his deputy and leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti. The violence has led to international calls for peace to be restored. The former Sudanese Foreign Minister Mariam al-Sadiq al-Mahdi said, "the army must go back to the barracks and civilians must rule for a transitional period for a short time, then move to free and fair elections."

Various media are reporting that Ukraine has launched a drone strike on power stations in the Russian city of Belgorod and the surrounding area overnight on Monday (17 April). Neither Ukraine nor Russia has officially confirmed the strikes. Shortly after the strikes local Telegram channels reported problems with electricity supply in parts of the city. The regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed that "two fires were recorded at civilian facilities" in Belgorod and Belgorod district, but stopped short of specifying exactly what caused the fires. In the past, suspected Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory have rarely, if ever, been admitted as such by Russian authorities. "There are no casualties. All emergency services are on site, the fire is being put out," Gladkov said. Recently there has been an increase in reports of drone sightings and explosions in Russian regions bordering Ukraine, including in Belgorod Oblast. Last week on Monday (10 April), a UAV carrying an explosive device fell on an airfield in Belgorod, damaging a fence and signal cable.

Poland has announced that it will supply Ukraine with more Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets after Berlin approved Warsaw's request to re-export the jets originally from East German stocks. Following the German government's approval of the re-export on Thursday (13 April), the total number of fighter jets that Poland has committed to sending to Ukraine will likely be around 20. Poland had earlier pledged 14 MiG-29s to Ukraine, with four having already been delivered. The Polish president's security adviser, Jacek Siewiera, has said Poland still has about 12 out of 23 MiG-29s that Poland bought from Germany 21 years ago, none of which have yet been sent to Ukraine. Yesterday's approval from Berlin will likely change this. Slovakia has also delivered four of its MiG-29 jets to Ukraine, with the government having approved 13. Despite the transfer of the Soviet-era jets to Ukraine being very helpful, Yurii Ihnat, Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson, has said they are "unlikely to be a game changer at the front".

Another serious incident between Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces happened on Tuesday (11 April) in the border area of Tegh, resulting in several Armenian and Azerbaijani servicemen being killed or injured. In Armenia, as in Azerbaijan, someone lost a son; someone lost a husband; someone lost a father. One can argue about who started, who shot first, and why. The truth is that incidents like this are going to continue happening for as long as the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaderships do not finish what they started, and take the necessary steps to normalise relations between them. Normalisation leading to peace, leading eventually to co-operation, is the endgame that both sides have publicly committed to. But the process continues to drag on as both sides remain attached to maximalist or unattainable positions. This state of affairs can drag on for a long time to come unless there is a resolute political will to move forward. And in the meantime, young Armenians and young Azerbaijanis die on a regular basis. Let’s be clear, every casualty is a sign of the failure of the political leadership, and declaring the victims heroes is not enough.

On Tuesday (11 April), the Russian State Duma adopted a bill to create a digital unified register of Russian citizens eligible for military service in an apparent attempt to crack down on draft dodgers. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the register will harvest Russians' personal details - including medical, educational, and residence history, foreign citizenship status, and insurance and tax data - to establish whether someone is eligible. The draft law also approves summonses to be issued online. In the past, summonses have had to be delivered in person or to an employer, meaning that many have avoided the draft by moving away from where they live, or by not opening the door to military officials. If the summoned individual does not appear at the draft office within 20 days, they will be banned from driving vehicles, buying or selling real estate, and taking out loans, as well as leaving the country. Creating the register is likely a method to replace some of the "colossal losses" that Russia has faced in recent days, particularly near the settlements of Avdiivka and Marinka, according to the Ukrainian military.

Although we are in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan, and peace is in the air across the whole of the Muslim Middle East, commonspace.eu writes in this editorial that "problems are being patched up, not resolved. Many of the causes or factors that triggered the conflicts in the first place remain as acute as ever. But for the moment the region is exhausted. Visionary leaders need time and space to implement their reforms; others such as the Iranian clerical regime, need time to regroup after being rattled by internal and external turmoil. There is then the issue of the wider picture. The Gulf region has for decades been the epicentre of geopolitical rivalry, which often overspilled into violence. It appears to be now losing this unenviable role. Open warfare is ongoing on the European continent following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is unlikely to end any time soon."