Conflict and Peace

The leaders of the three South Caucasus countries made a rare joint appearance at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, to outline their vision for the future of the region. There was a certain awkwardness in the air as Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia and Irakli Garibashvili of Georgia answered questions put by the moderator, Christoph Heusgen, during a panel entitled "Moving mountains, building security in the South Caucasus". The moderator further complicated things when he described the event as a historic first meeting of the leaders of the three South Caucasus countries. An appearance at the same event can hardly be called a meeting. Despite this however, the appearance of the the leaders together is a rare event, and augurs well for future regional co-operation which up to now has been largely non-existent. On the margins of the Munich conference, president Aliyev and prime minister Pashinyan also had a face to face meeting in a gathering hosted by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. After a hiatus of several months it now seems that the peace process between the two countries is starting to gather pace again.

In a security briefing on the Russia-Ukraine war released on Friday (17 February), the UK Ministry of Defence has announced that they believe that Russia may have lost anywhere between 175,000 and 200,000 soldiers since the 24 February 2022. This figure includes regular soldiers from the Russian Armed Forces and private military contractors from the likes of the Wagner group. The briefing adds that the number of killed could be anywhere between 40,000 and 60,000, and that the casualty rate has significantly increased since Vladimir Putin announced his 'partial mobilisation' in September 2022. It goes on to say that by modern standards, "these figures represent a high ratio of personnel killed compared to those wounded", adding that the casualty rate has likely been exacerbated by "extremely rudimentary medical provision across much of the force". Finally, the briefing writes that Wagner forces have deployed large numbers of convict recruits, who have probably seen a casualty rate of up to 50%.

The earthquake that hit Turkey and parts of Syria on 6 February was a massive tragedy. As of Thursday (16 February) it has left nearly fifty thousand people dead, many tens of thousands injured and millions affected directly or indirectly. The world rallied around the beleaguered communities, putting aside political differences and diplomatic obstacles. The impact of the earthquake on Turkey was enormous. Ten out of eighty one Turkish provinces were affected, and some Turkish towns were wiped away almost completely. Humanitarian aid started pouring into Turkey from every part of the world. The contribution of one small neighbouring country was particularly significant, not only as part of the humanitarian effort, but also for its political and diplomatic symbolism. Armenia and Turkey have had a difficult relationship for decades. The two neighbouring countries do not have diplomatic relations. Their borders are closed. Recent attempts to normalise relations appeared to be moving at very slow speed – both sides having to manoeuvre around many sensitive issues, and a heavy baggage of history. It took an earthquake to jolt relations out of decades of animosity.

Russia has unleashed a 15th wave of missile strikes against Ukraine overnight on Thursday (16 February) after reportedly sustaining very heavy losses in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. According to the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces Valery Zaluzhny, overnight Russia launched 36 air and sea-based cruise, guided air-to-surface, and anti-ship missiles. He added that 16 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defence. In a post on Telegram on Thursday morning, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said, "the situation [in the East] is tense. Yes, it is difficult for us. But our fighters are not allowing the enemy to achieve their goals and are inflicting very serious losses." The latest wave of strikes comes after the military think tank, The Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests that Moscow's has lost as much as 50% of its pre-invasion fleet of modern T-72B3 and T-72B3M main battle tanks. Meanwhile, the UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has suggested that as many as two-thirds of Russia's tanks could be either "destroyed or broken". Speaking to the BBC on Wednesday (15 February), Mr Wallace added that they believe that as much as 97% of Russia's entire army are now in Ukraine. 

The Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Mevlut Cavusoglu and Ararat Mirzoyan have met in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Wednesday (15 February). The meeting followed an announcement from Armenian officials that a second Armenian aid convoy crossed the land border into Turkey late on Tuesday after the devastating 6 February earthquake which has killed over 40,000 people across Turkey and Syria. The meeting is being seen as a major development in the normalisation of ties between the two countries who do not enjoy any formal diplomatic relations and who remain divided over a number of issues. Mirzoyan expressed his "condolences to the families of the many thousands of victims of the devastating earthquake, the people and government of Turkey, and I wish swift recovery to all those injured." Recalling the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia that killed over 20,000 people, Mirzoyan said, "I believe that the international community must not remain indifferent towards any humanitarian crisis happening anywhere around the globe. And it was by this very principle that immediately after the devastating earthquake the government of Armenia made a decision to send rescuers and humanitarian aid to Turkey."

The Secretary of Armenia’s Security Council Armen Grigoryan has told journalists at a briefing on Tuesday (14 February) that Armenia is "ready"  for opening of the shared border with Turkey and normalisation of relations any time. "The Armenian and Turkish sides are holding discussions on the issue and will continue the discussions, hoping that it will take place as soon as possible," Grigoryan said. He added that an agreement on opening the border for nationals of third countries had indeed been reached last year between Armenia and Turkey, but said that no timeframe was discussed. The agreement was struck in July 2022, but changes on the ground have not yet materialised. Tweeting early in the morning on Wednesday, the Spokesperson for the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Vahan Hunanyan announced, "Armenia continues sending humanitarian aid to earthquake-affected regions. Late last night, trucks loaded with the second batch of humanitarian aid crossed the Armenian-Turkish border through the Margara bridge."