Conflict and Peace

The processes that have been taking place in the Gulf region and the wider Middle East over the last year - which healed the schism within the GCC, reconciled Turkey with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, started the process of bringing back Syria within the Arab fold, and, even more dramatically, started the process of reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran - appeared in recent days to have even reached Yemen, when the exchange of large numbers of prisoners during the Ramadan month, and the meetings between Saudi officials and the Houthi leadership, augured well for that painful conflict to be also finally resolved. Yet, just as pundits hailed a new era of peace in the Middle East, Sudan erupted into a civil war that has already claimed hundreds of lives, and potentially can be hugely devastating.

A ceasefire agreed between the Sudanese military and a rival paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), appears to be holding after taking effect at midnight on Tuesday (25 April). It is the fourth attempt at a ceasefire between the warring parties since a power struggle erupted into violence on Sunday (15 April), with previous truces since then having failed. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the 72-hour truce had been agreed between the army and the RSF after 48 hours of negotiations. At least 400 people have been killed by the fighting over the past 10 days. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres has warned the violence in Sudan risks causing a "catastrophic conflagration" that could spread to the rest of the region, and beyond. Meanwhile, over the weekend and on Monday countries began evacuating diplomatic staff and foreign nationals from Sudan, including the US, Argentina, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, as well as many Gulf countries.

Countries have begun evacuating their diplomats and nationals from the Sudanese capital of Khartoum as fighting between the army and a rival paramilitary group continues to rage after a power struggle erupted into violence on Sunday (15 April). The United Kingdom and the United States announced on Sunday (22 April) that they had evacuated their respective diplomats, as had France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The US embassy in Khartoum is now closed, while a tweet on their official feed has said that it is no longer safe to evacuate private US citizens. Meanwhile the UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly said options to evacuate the remaining British nationals in Sudan were "severely limited". The French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that a plane carrying both French and Dutch citizens had arrived in Djibouti on Sunday, while another evacuation took place on Monday, taking the number of people evacuated so far to 388. The German army has said that the first of three planes had left Sudan bound for Jordan, with 101 people on board.

The last two weeks have seen missed opportunities for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, and for the Georgian government to establish facts and proving the truth over the US sanctioning of four Georgian judges, writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. Instead of building trust and confidence, the burning of the Azerbaijani flag at the European Weightlifting Championships in Yerevan "further entrenched the enemy imagery". Meanwhile in Georgia, "by obstructing the establishment of a parliamentary investigative commission to assess the US accusations against Georgian judges, the Georgian government missed an opportunity to deal openly and transparently with what is clearly a very sensitive and controversial issue."

Early in the morning of Wednesday (19 April), Russia launched a wave of drone strikes on the southern Odesa Oblast, with two drones striking a "public infrastructure facility", according to the Odesa Oblast Military administration. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched 12 Iranian-made Shahed "kamikaze" drones, of which ten were shot down. No casualties were reported after last night's attack, said the military administration. Explosions were heard around 2am in the morning of Wednesday, with air raid sirens having been activated a few minutes prior. Yesterday on Tuesday (18 April), the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the front-line town of Avdiivka, in Donetsk Oblast, located only 10km north of the city of Donetsk, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014. "I wish you nothing but victory – something that every Ukrainian desires and which holds great importance for all of us," Zelensky said. "I extend my wishes for good health to you and your loved ones and express sincere gratitude from every Ukrainian for the remarkable path that you tread each day." Russian forces made significant gains around Avdiivka in March, with Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi acknowledging on 20 March that it could become a "second Bakhmut".

Events of the past year have unleashed a new "Great Game" in Central Asia, writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. "The plan, it seems, builds on China’s “Belt and Road” programme, but there also now appears to be a much stronger political angle to China’s engagement. China is worried that Russia’s increasing weakness is creating a vacuum in Central Asia that others may be tempted to fill. It is determined to get there first. China’s approach seems to be to keep the west out, the Russians down, and everyone else on the margin." There is little doubt that the big loser in this “great game in the new era” is Russia. But the Kremlin at this point has little choice but to try to cut its losses. It desperately needs China’s support - at least economically, politically and diplomatically, if not militarily - as it tries to sort out the mess it created for itself in Ukraine, and resist Western sanctions imposed after its invasion.