Conflict and Peace

After months of diplomacy by e-mail, Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Washington DC in the first week of May for negotiations led by the foreign ministers of the two countries, with the United States providing facilitation and support, writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. The presence of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, at the opening of the talks, raised expectations that the talks may be conclusive. They were not, but enough progress was made for Blinken to return for the closing session, telling his guests that the US appreciated that the last bit of any negotiating process was going to be the most difficult. "The temptation to draw out the ongoing situation for many more months, with the hope that time is on their side, has big risks. Unplanned incidents still have the capacity to escalate quickly and spiral out of control, feeding on the existing level of mistrust. The violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan reported this morning (11 May) is a case in point. So in many ways this is the moment of truth, even if some would argue that we have been here before. Somehow however this time it feels different, even if the nitty-gritty problems have not gone away," they add.

An entire Russian brigade has reportedly fled the embattled town of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine. This news was initially announced by the Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, and confirmed by Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade on Tuesday (9 May).  Russian forces have been trying to take the town for some 10 months, but have reportedly taken huge losses in the face of strong Ukrainian resistance. Bakhmut, which had a pre-war population of around 70,000, has been almost completely destroyed by the fighting. "Prigozhin's report about the escape of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces from Bakhmut and the '500 corpses' of Russians who remained there is true. The Third Assault Brigade is grateful for the publicity of our success at the front," the Third Assault Brigade wrote in a statement. Meanwhile, the leader of the Third Assault Brigade, Andriy Biletskiy, claimed that they had liberated a 3km x 2.6km strip of land south-west of Bakhmut in the process.

The European Union has officially confirmed that the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Brussels on Sunday (14 May). The official announcement comes after a claim made in the Financial Times yesterday (8 May) about the two leaders meeting in the Belgian capital this weekend. In a statement, the EU said "President Michel has continued to be in close contact with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to advance the EU’s efforts to promote stability in the South Caucasus and normalisation between the two countries," before announcing the trilateral meeting in Brussels this weekend. The statement adds that this meeting in Brussels will be "flanked" by a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the sidelines of the upcoming European Political Community summit in Chisinau, Moldova, on 1 June 2023. In addition to this, the EU also said that Pashinyan and Aliyev have "agreed to continue to meet trilaterally in Brussels as frequently as necessary to address ongoing developments on the ground and standing agenda items of the Brussels meetings".