Richard Giragosian: War in Karabakh conflict zone is more than realistic

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on 7 August 2026 in Mecca, by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, establishes a collective defence arrangement under which an armed attack against any one of the three states is to be regarded as an attack against all three. This is a historic step, and the agreement is a landmark event, that will change the future of the wider Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan are different countries with many particular features. But there is enough common ground between them to make the new situation created by the Mecca Defence Agreement significant, and their efforts credible. They are also complimentary in terms of what they can bring to the process that they are about to start.Pakistan and Turkiye have large and developed standing armiies; Pakistan has nuclear weapons; Turkiye has a dynamic and expanding arms industry; Saudi Arabia has financial resources, and extensive diplomatic kudos in the Islamic world and beyond. The official statement announcing the new agreement said: “Guided by the longstanding historical ties among the three states, based on the enduring bonds of brotherhood and Islamic solidarity that unite them, and building upon their shared strategic interests and longstanding defense cooperation, HRH the Crown Prince, the President of Türkiye, and the Prime Minister of Pakistan signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, reflecting the three states' shared commitment to further strengthening their collective security and to promoting peace, security, and stability in the region and beyond, in pursuit of a secure and prosperous future. The agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all. It further provides for the enhancement of all aspects of defense cooperation among the three states”. Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan said that the pact would function similar to NATO, with a minister's committee, political and military committees, and a permanent secretariat to oversee the implementation of decisions. The permanent general secretariat is expected to be based in Saudi Arabia.