Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Today, on Monday (20 February), Ukraine is marking the Day of Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred in commemoration of those who died during the 2013-14 Euromaidan protests, also known as the Revolution of Dignity. It has been marked annually on 20 February following a Presidential Decree signed by then-Ukrainian President on 11 February 2015, "On commemorating the feat of the participants in the Revolution of Dignity and perpetuating the memory of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred." "The Heavenly Hundred" refers to the 108 people who died during the Euromaidan protests nine years ago. This includes 105 Ukrainians and three foreigners, one from Belarus and two from Georgia. It was between 18-20 February 2014 that the Revolution was at its most violent, during which time 78 protesters were killed on Independence Square in Kyiv. After 20 February, over 20 protesters died of their injuries. The day began with a short address from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said: "The time comes when the voices of millions merge into a single voice of the people, saying that Ukrainians want and will live only in a free state. In their own Ukraine. Which will certainly survive. And which will certainly preserve freedom."

In a security briefing on the Russia-Ukraine war released on Friday (17 February), the UK Ministry of Defence has announced that they believe that Russia may have lost anywhere between 175,000 and 200,000 soldiers since the 24 February 2022. This figure includes regular soldiers from the Russian Armed Forces and private military contractors from the likes of the Wagner group. The briefing adds that the number of killed could be anywhere between 40,000 and 60,000, and that the casualty rate has significantly increased since Vladimir Putin announced his 'partial mobilisation' in September 2022. It goes on to say that by modern standards, "these figures represent a high ratio of personnel killed compared to those wounded", adding that the casualty rate has likely been exacerbated by "extremely rudimentary medical provision across much of the force". Finally, the briefing writes that Wagner forces have deployed large numbers of convict recruits, who have probably seen a casualty rate of up to 50%.

Russia has unleashed a 15th wave of missile strikes against Ukraine overnight on Thursday (16 February) after reportedly sustaining very heavy losses in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. According to the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces Valery Zaluzhny, overnight Russia launched 36 air and sea-based cruise, guided air-to-surface, and anti-ship missiles. He added that 16 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defence. In a post on Telegram on Thursday morning, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said, "the situation [in the East] is tense. Yes, it is difficult for us. But our fighters are not allowing the enemy to achieve their goals and are inflicting very serious losses." The latest wave of strikes comes after the military think tank, The Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests that Moscow's has lost as much as 50% of its pre-invasion fleet of modern T-72B3 and T-72B3M main battle tanks. Meanwhile, the UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has suggested that as many as two-thirds of Russia's tanks could be either "destroyed or broken". Speaking to the BBC on Wednesday (15 February), Mr Wallace added that they believe that as much as 97% of Russia's entire army are now in Ukraine. 

One day after addressing the UK Parliament in the Palace of Westminster in London, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has addressed the European Parliament in Brussels on Thursday (9 February). Entering the hemicycle shortly after 11am local time, Zelensky was greeted by MEPs with a standing ovation. President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola opened proceedings with a short speech in which she praised Ukraine's courage in its fight for European values, which "binds all peoples across the continent as sisters and brothers." Referring to Ukraine's ongoing campaign to join the EU, about which some member states have a deal of scepticism and concern, Metsola called on EU leaders to ensure that Ukraine gets "the fastest possible accession process", coupled with funds for reconstruction and more heavy weapons to repel Russia's invasion, including "long-range systems and the jets". "Our response must be proportional to the threat and the threat is existential," Metsola said. Rounding off her introduction, she told Zelensky, "We have your back. We were with you then. We are with you now. We will be with you for as long as it takes. Freedom will prevail, peace will reign and you will win. Slava Ukraini!"

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has addressed a joint meeting of the UK Parliament in the Palace of Westminster in London. Walking on stage shortly after 1pm local time on Wednesday (8 February), President Zelensky was greeted by rapturous applause and cheers from members of the House of Commons and the House of Lords. Introducing President Zelensky, Speaker of the House of Commons Lindsay Hoyle spoke about his first meeting with the Ukrainian head of state in October 2020, and about Zelensky's remote speech to the House of Commons on 8 March 2022, describing it as "devastating and powerful". The Speaker said he was "honoured you put yourself at risk to address us again and shine a light on the fact that your country is fighting for its survival". Before handing over to President Zelensky, Lindsay Hoyle finished by saying, "We will always be united in our unwavering belief in democracy. Slava Ukraini!" Speaking for some 20 minutes, President Zelensky began by thanking the United Kingdom for its support in training Ukrainian soldiers, also recounting his first visit to London approximately two and a half years ago.

As the one-year anniversary of Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine approaches, Ukrainian officials are expressing concerns of a new major offensive following a recent large-scale Russian mobilisation. This comes as Kyiv prepares to host EU officials on Friday (3 February) for a summit on the embattled counry's progress towards EU membership. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov estimates that Russia has mobilised up to 500,000 troops, despite official numbers claiming the mobilisation of 300,000 Russian troops. The estimates come after Ukrainian officials have announced high military activity on the Russian side of its border. Russia also celebrates its "Defender of the Fatherland Day" on 23 February, just one day before the one-year mark of the so-called "special military operation".