South Caucasus

Ahmad Alili and Stepan Grigoryan are members of a Joint Liaison Group of Armenian and Azerbaijani experts currently finalising a report on how confidence-building measures can support lasting peace in the South Caucasus. In this jointly written paper they say that the crisis in Ukraine has reminded the people of the South Caucasus of the horrors of war. “In the South Caucasus people have suffered enough from violent conflict. They deserve a better and more peaceful future, and all of us should contribute to that objective”, they write in this opinion paper.

As long as Turkey maintains a fairly neutral stance on the Ukraine issue, Russia will not interfere in the current efforts to normalise Armenian-Turkish relations, says Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed. "However, if Turkey changes its policy towards Russia, and joins the anti-Russian sanctions the situation may change. In such case, this may break the Russian – Turkish understanding for the post-2020 South Caucasus. Russia may assume the role of spoiler in the Armenia – Turkey normalization process, significantly slowing down the movement towards establishing diplomatic relations and opening up borders." 

"The sanctions imposed on the Russian economy will have a significant impact on Russia, limiting its ability to conduct foreign trade relations, which will in turn affect its position as a main transit country in Eurasia", writes Orkhan Baghirov in this op-ed. "Within the new geo-political realities, the Middle Corridor can emerge the winner, and can become the main land route in Eurasia. It will in turn strengthen the political and economic position of the participating states, including Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the Central Asian countries, all of who aspire to become regional transportation hubs".

"A remarkable event occurred on March 11 in Baku when Azerbaijan and Iran, after a period of turbulence in their bilateral relations, signed a new document establishing new transport and electricity supply links connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan via Iranian territory", writes Fuad Shahbazov in this op-ed. "The new transit corridor will renew the partnership dialogue between Baku and Tehran, give new economic tools to Azerbaijan in the region, and bolster trade with its natural ally Turkey. On the other hand, the potential normalization process with Armenia would be an additional asset to further regional stability, and will end Armenia’s ongoing economic isolation."

Armenia is one of the countries that have had to make difficult decisions whilst positioning itself in the current stand-off between Russia and Ukraine. Despite the fact that it has little room for manoeuvre, and is very dependent on Russia in many spheres, Armenia has taken a pragmatic but principled position, writes Bojan Stojkovski in this op-ed for commonspace.eu

Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS Europe and Managing Editor of Commonspace.eu discusses how the countries of the South Caucasus have reacted to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what they should do next. “In the present circumstances, the strongest card that the three countries have, if they choose to play it, is regional co-operation and an informal loosely co-ordinated common approach”, he says. All the Russian strategy in the South Caucasus in the last thirty years has been built  on the premise of adversity and unhealthy competition between and within the three countries. Debunking this will be a major victory for all the countries and people in the region.

"If Russia successfully resists the unprecedented pressure from the West and remains one of the main poles in the emerging multipolar world, its interests lie in balancing Turkish influence in its neighborhood, including the South Caucasus. It does not imply that Russia and Turkey will stop their economic cooperation. It simply means that Russia will seek to prevent Turkish dominance over the South Caucasus", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this analysis on current geo-politics in the South Caucasus.