South Caucasus

Tbilisi's central Rustaveli Avenue was in turmoil last night (7-8 March) as thousands came out to protest against a proposed foreign agent law that had been backed in parliament earlier on 7 March. It was the second day of large protests in the Georgian capital over the proposed law, with a large group having gathered at the back of the parliament building on Monday (6 March) as the law was debated in parliamentary committee meetings, which themselves led to scuffles between parliamentarians. Yesterday's protests in Tbilisi grew in size as the sun set, and riot police were deployed to control the protesters whereupon scuffles between them began. Protesters waved EU and Georgian flags, the EU and Ukrainian national anthems were also heard, and protesters chanted anti-government slogans. Riot police employed increasing force to disperse the protesters, including using water cannon and large amounts of tear gas. Some protesters were seen falling on the ground and coughing, and journalists on the ground also reported choking and being unable to breathe because of the quantity of tear gas used against the protesters. The government says several policemen were hurt and police gear was damaged.

An event on water dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts is taking place today in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Monday (6 March). In a Facebook post, Emin Milli, the Founder and Chairman of Restart Initiative and the Co-Founder of Daha Yaxşı, Restart Initiative's media project, revealed that the focus of the meeting is to establish what are the key challenges to Internal Water Resources Management at the bilateral transboundary basin level, and to explore potential areas of mutual interest and cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is the third dialogue in the "Economic Connectivity: Armenia-Azerbaijan Dialogue Series" organised by the Restart Initiative in cooperation with the Hertie School, and sponsored by the United States of America. There will be a series of interviews with the participants of the dialogue published by Daha Yaxşı both this and next week. In today's meeting, one of the participants said, "we all will be losers if we don’t cooperate."

Georgian MPs have resumed discussing a draft law on "foreign agents" amid large protests in Tbilisi and even scuffles between politicians inside the committee room. The draft law was introduced on 14 February by a group of pro-government MPs who formally left the ruling Georgian Dream party last year. During discussions on Monday (6 March), a large crowd gathered at the back of the Georgian parliament to protest against the proposed law. According to OC Media journalist Mariam Nikuradze who was at the protest, protesters chanted "Russians", waved EU and Georgian flags, some taped their mouths shut, and one threw eggs at the building. Inside parliament, some opposition MPs were removed from the sitting of the Parliamentary Committee on Legal Affairs after physical confrontation between lawmakers. The chairman of the committee, Anri Okhanashvili, requested the removal of several deputies from the hall due to shouting from their seats. This then led to the chairman of the United National Movement Levan Khabeishvili physically confronting Orkhanashvili, leading to larger scuffles. Later, Salome Samadashvili, Khatuna Samnidze and Tamar Kordzaia were also removed from the sitting, having previously been warned about disruption by the chairman, according to reports.

After an erratic 2022, which saw prospects for peace and normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and between Armenia and Turkey, swing between unprecedented new heights and familiar lows, and after a rather pessimistic start for 2023 when diplomacy appeared to have to come to dead end, March has started with cautious optimism in the air, and the prospect of a historic Spring breakthrough appears within reach. This is due to the convergence of a number of factors and developments, some anticipated and some not. The ten developments that offer cause for optimism are: US brokered talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Munich; the deployment of an EU Monitoring Mission; the revival of the Brussels format; internet diplomacy; the ruling of the International Court of Justice; a fluid political situation in Stepanakert; Baku and Stepanakert holding direct talks; earthquake diplomacy between Armenia and Turkey; the limitations of Russia’s power and influence have been exposed; and more confident leaderships in both Baku and Yerevan.