South Caucasus

Thirty young leaders, activists and opinion shapers from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will participate in the first South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School (SCYPSS), which will be held in Kachreti Georgia from 21-31 August 2023. SCYPSS is an initiative of LINKS Europe and is organised with the support of the European Union and the Government of Norway. The idea of a South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School was included in the report "The South Caucasus from war to peace: thirty measures between now and 2030", prepared by the Joint Liaison Group of Armenian and Azerbaijani experts on confidence-building measures in support of lasting peace in the South Caucasus, published in April 2022. A spokesperson for LINKS Europe told commonspace.eu: "The participation of young people from the three countries at this event indicates that there is readiness, despite differences, to meet, share opinions and slowly build trust between different nationalities in the region. SCYPSS is a confidence-building measure at a time when such measures are much needed. LINKS Europe will work with our able international faculty and the participants from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia for the success of the event".

The United Nations Security Council on Wednesday (16 August) met in open-session to discuss the situation around the Lachin Corridor. Azerbaijan has established check points on the corridor and has restricted movement, whilst offering alternative routes to Karabakh going through Azerbaijani territory. Armenia says this is causing a humanitarian crisis. All fifteen members of the Security Council spoke, with many highlighting the need for humanitarian aid to flow unimpeded to Nagorno-Karabakh; most emphasising the importance of territorial integrity, and all calling for progress in the peace negotiations for the region to move on from the current impasse. The meeting ended without the Council taking any decision. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that there are two important take-aways from Wednesday's meeting: The first, for Azerbaijan, is that, regardless of the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is recognised as part of Azerbaijan the mood in the international community is one of concern at how Azerbaijan is treating the Armenian community, and will treat it in the future. The handling of the Lachin corridor is by many seen as a test of things to come. Azerbaijan needs a much more nuanced and sophisticated approach on this issue if it is avoid a head on collision with the international community sooner rather than later; The second take-away, for Armenia, is that the international community is currently neither willing, nor probably even able, to put the kind of pressure on Azerbaijan that Armenia expects, and that the solution is progress in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations. For the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh the message from many members of the Security Council was clear: talk to Baku. There is a bigger role for the UN Security Council in the future. Any future Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement should be underpinned by a UN Security Council resolution. But we are not there yet.

"Confidence-building measures are a necessary element in any strategy to end conflicts", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Whilst there have been instances of confidence-building measures in the context of the Karabakh conflict for decades, the post-2020 confidence-building measures differ from the pre-war process. "The participants are more realistic in their expectations and assessments of the situation, understanding that no miracles are possible and that any solution requires painful decisions, especially from the Armenian side. A country cannot lose the war and hope for a solution to satisfy all its expectations and desires. However, this understanding also does not mean that in the post-2020 war period, those Armenians involved in confidence-building measures were ready to accept any solution to the conflict. They seek a difficult balance between being realistic and avoiding putting themselves into “echo-chamber”, situations while not rejecting their core beliefs on the acceptable ways of conflict settlement."

The United Nations Security Council will discuss the situation around Lachin at a meeting in new York on Wednesday, 16 August. The meeting will be open. Under the rules of the United Nations, the Chairmanship of the Security Council moves monthly by rotation in alphabetical order, and this month the Chair is the United States. US diplomacy, with the personal participation of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has over the last year been trying to assist Armenia and Azerbaijan to develop a peace treaty between them. Although some progress has been made, there remain several stumbling issues on which both sides are showing intransigence. There is speculation that the United States may use tomorrow's meeting to push for a a quicker pace in the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, and possibly a bigger role for the UN in the issue of the future of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. This will be fiercely resist by Azerbaijan which is hoping that it friends amongst non-aligned countries will help tone down any criticism of its actions.

Yesterday on Thursday (10 August), Armenia and Iran signed an agreement to extend an energy swap deal for another for years and increase its volumes. Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Gnel Sanosian said that the extension of the agreement is "one of the best manifestations of Armenian-Iranian friendly relations", adding that "the extension of the agreement is a profitable deal for both countries."

At least 20 people are confirmed to have been killed by a landslide in Shovi, northern Georgia, on Thursday last week (3 August). The Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, gave the latest update on Wednesday morning (9 August). According to the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, around a dozen people remain unaccounted for.

At least 11 people have been killed in a landslide in Shovi, northern Georgia, on Thursday afternoon (3 August). Immediately after the disaster struck around 70 people were moved to a safe area, and according to a statement from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, two border police helicopters and around 400 rescuers had been deployed in the first night of the rescue operation.