Gulf and Red Sea Regions

The processes that have been taking place in the Gulf region and the wider Middle East over the last year - which healed the schism within the GCC, reconciled Turkey with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, started the process of bringing back Syria within the Arab fold, and, even more dramatically, started the process of reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran - appeared in recent days to have even reached Yemen, when the exchange of large numbers of prisoners during the Ramadan month, and the meetings between Saudi officials and the Houthi leadership, augured well for that painful conflict to be also finally resolved. Yet, just as pundits hailed a new era of peace in the Middle East, Sudan erupted into a civil war that has already claimed hundreds of lives, and potentially can be hugely devastating.

Qatar and Bahrain have announced that they have agreed on restoring diplomatic ties after a meeting on Wednesday (12 April) at the headquarters of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) General Secretariat in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. According to a statement released by the Qatari foreign ministry, both sides agreed to "enhance the Gulf unity and integration according to the GCC Charter". The agreement ends a dispute that began in 2017, when Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, imposed a diplomatic blockade on Qatar alleging it had worked to support "terrorism", backed hardline groups, maintained too close ties with Iran, and had meddled in those countries' internal affairs. Doha has always firmly denied the allegations. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt had banned Qatari planes and ships from using their airspace and waters, as well as cutting trade links. All but Bahrain resumed these ties in 2021, however, but UAE and Qatar have not yet opened their respective embassies. The agreement between Bahrain and Qatar is the latest in a series of regional rapprochements. Most significant was the 10 March deal struck between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalise relations between them. 

Although we are in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan, and peace is in the air across the whole of the Muslim Middle East, commonspace.eu writes in this editorial that "problems are being patched up, not resolved. Many of the causes or factors that triggered the conflicts in the first place remain as acute as ever. But for the moment the region is exhausted. Visionary leaders need time and space to implement their reforms; others such as the Iranian clerical regime, need time to regroup after being rattled by internal and external turmoil. There is then the issue of the wider picture. The Gulf region has for decades been the epicentre of geopolitical rivalry, which often overspilled into violence. It appears to be now losing this unenviable role. Open warfare is ongoing on the European continent following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is unlikely to end any time soon."

Developments in Yemen over the last days do not augur well for the 10 March Iran-Saudi Arabia normalisation deal, writes commonspace.eu in this commentary, writing that "it is in Yemen where the biggest test for the resilience of the Beijing agreement will come, sooner rather than later." On 10 March in Beijing, Iran and Saudi Arabia together with China signed an agreement that amongst other things provides for the restoration of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh. The agreement has many other provisions, and remains confidential, but it is widely understood that it contains provisions for lessening tensions in the region and taking the heat out of some hotspots where the two regional powers continue to look each other in the eye. Yemen invariably is at the top of the agenda.

On Friday (10 March), it was announced in Beijing that with the mediation of China, Iran and Saudi Arabia had agreed to end decades of hostility, re-establish diplomatic relations that had been broken in 2016, re-open embassies in their respective capitals within two months, and work towards resolving all disputes between them through dialogue. The diplomatic world appeared taken by surprise, both by the Iranian-Saudi reconciliation, as well as by China’s involvement. The sight of a Sunni Kingdom, a Shia revolutionary republic, and a Communist state cosying together was somewhat unsettling for some. Many rushed to welcome the deal, others, especially among the chattering classes in Washington, rushed to criticise it. Diplomatic contacts have been ongoing between Tehran and Riyadh for some time, held mainly in Baghdad and Muscat with Iraqi and Omani facilitation. After the UAE normalised relations with Iran some months ago, it was assumed that sooner or later Saudi Arabia will follow. But the timing and context of the deal announced in Beijing last week remains a very significant development, with wide-ranging consequences. It also appears to herald a new age of pragmatism in international relations, with considerable implications.