Global

Updated on 13 June at 1330 CEST=========================== Source quoting Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, says the text of a Memorandum between the US and Iran has been agreed, and is likely to be signed in the next 24 hours. Iranian sources are saying that the Memorandum is likely to be signed remotely. ==================== The United States and Iran signaled on Friday that an agreement to end their war was close, with a senior U.S. administration official saying both sides had agreed on a text and that Washington ​expects to sign an initial deal in the coming days. There are reports that the two sides will meet in Geneva in the coming 3-4 days. iAccording to the BBC, the agreement  includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Foreign Minister has said. Seyed Abbas Araghchi told state TV the deal also includes the lifting of a US blockade of Iran, but that talks on Iran's nuclear programme would begin later. US officials have confirmed some of the details of the agreement, saying economic benefits for Iran would depend on Tehran meeting its obligations. The war began with US and Israeli strikes across Iran on 28 February, prompting Iran to attack Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf - as well as effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for the world's oil and liquefied gas. Trump says there is "no such thing as dealing in good faith" when it comes to negotiating with the Iranians Despite having agreed a ceasefire in April, the US and Iran have exchanged intermittent fire, including two rounds of tit-for-tat strikes this week. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he had cancelled "scheduled attacks" against Iran, because negotiators had "just made a great settlement" - a deal that was likely be to signed imminently. On Friday, Iranian media published some details from the alleged 14-point deal which Trump said had "nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to" and "bears no relation to the truth".

The war against Iran, unleashed by the United States and Israel started 100 days ago, on 28 February 2026. Two days later, in my Monday Commentary on commonspace.eu, I said that Donald Trump had opened Pandora’s Box, and that the conflict unleashed will have deep and lasting consequences for the region, and for the world. Unfortunately, it seems I was right. We are just at the beginning of what are likely to be, a chain of events, that remain for the most part unpredictable, even if the dangers, turmoil and risks, can already be seen. The problem is far from being resolved. A sort of a ceasefire has decreased the violence in the Gulf. Trump, under pressure from many quarters, to bring the crisis to a halt, keeps promising a deal “soon”, but in this, as with everything else in this saga, Trump is far away from reality. The revolutionary regime in Iran did not melt away; the killing of the Supreme Leader did not end the regime, nor did it mellow it down, the Iranian people did not rise to overthrow the clerics and their system, and the world did not rally around the US to support its adventure. Instead, Trump found himself tied to Israel’s Benyamin Netanyahu, and his convoluted view of the Middle East. Traffic through the vital global trade artery – the Strait of Hormuz, has been disrupted, as have global energy supplies, and other vital goods, such as fertilizer. Even if a semblance of peace is restored, the impact will be widespread and everlasting. This is seen, and will be seen even more crudely in the future, in the six Gulf monarchies that constitute the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). The six countries have since the late 1960s relied on the US for their defence and security. They had blind faith in the US, and this seemed to increase when Donald Trump returned to the White House for a second term. They did not want the war. It came as an unpleasant surprise. But once it started, they expected the Americans to win it quickly and decisively. Instead, they find themselves faced with an injured but emboldened Iran, and a new Gulf reality that is unpleasant and uncomfortable. The GCC countries have to go back to the drawing board. At least three of them, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE, have the financial clout necessary, and leaders that are sharp enough to deliver. But there are some realities that will be inevitable. Iran, a hundred days after the killing of the Supreme Leader, is injured but emboldened. The heavy bombardments by the most powerful planes and missiles of the US and Israel, killed thousands of people, including one tier of leaders. But the worst damage is the material damage to infrastructure and facilities that will take years to restore. So far, the Islamic Republic, and its institutions have remained intact. But that does not mean they are not under pressure. Beyond the bravado speech coming out of Tehran, there is another reality. The war might not have triggered the revolt that Netanyahu and Trump expected, but it has triggered a process of change, the full implications of which will only be seen once the dust has settled. Donald Trump emerges from the last hundred days weakened and vulnerable. The outcome of the war is not what he expected. It was his war, even if some say that it was Netanyahu’s war. He thought he could win it quickly and decisively. He didn’t. Americans, to the right and to the left, are unhappy with the war and its consequences. They will have their say in the mid-term elections later this year. It is too early for the opponents of Trump to claim victory. But the writing is on the wall. The war will define Trump’s second term. For the moment it does not look good for the president. It does not look good for the United Sates either. Despite the impressive display of US shooting power, the war exposed the limits of US power, and the increasing US isolation in the world. The US can flatten a country, but it cannot flatten a people. The US deployed everything it has against Iran, except nuclear weapons. It dented the Iranian regime and its capabilities. Maybe even more. But it did not obliterate it. That clearly came as a surprise to Donald Trump; to US allies in the Gulf it came as a shock; to US adversaries in the world, who were watching carefully, it was a very instructive moment, and they all drew their own conclusions. The last hundred days have had an impact on others too: Israel; Lebanon, and the Palestinians, are caught in it. Europe is trying desperately not to be embroiled in Trump’s war. But Europe must be prepared for the day after. There is little sign of that yet. ======== (Click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)