Global

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.

The Bonn Contact Group on Climate, Peace and Security ahead of COP29, held its final report presentation on 9 October at the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany. The meeting was attended by representatives of Berlin-based civil society organisations, policymakers, academics and international organisations. The meeting focused on three critical reports examining the intersections of climate change with water scarcity, land degradation and food insecurity. The event was organised by LINKS Europe in collaboration with the Restart Initiative and the Candid Foundation. 

In September, it was announced that China has joined Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia as a partner in the Middle Corridor Initiative, with the China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRTC) participating in the project. The decision followed extended talks over several months and was confirmed during the 8th International Silk Road Expo, held in Xi’an from September 19-20, 2024. This announcement comes amid the growing significance of the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), as a crucial trade link between China and Europe, passing through several Central Asian and South Caucasian countries. The Middle Corridor Multimodal joint venture, established in 2023, offers a “one-stop-shop” service for cargo delivery along this route, aiming to enhance transport coordination, provide transparent tariffs, and ensure consistent delivery times.

The US Helsinki Commission on Tuesday (1 October) published an analysis of Russia's political and economic agenda. The document addresses, among other things, various developments in the South Caucasus. The region is experiencing various political shifts as Russia's material influence wanes due to its focus on its war with Ukraine. On the one hand. Armenia was once one of Russia's strongest allies. However, following the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020, Armenia has moved away from Moscow and more towards a Western agenda. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has adopted a cooperative approach with Russia, especially given the similarities between the two countries' strong governmental grip.   

NATO's new Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv on Thursday (3 October). It is Rutte's first working trip since officially taking office earlier this week. Earlier, Rutte announced that Ukraine's NATO membership would be one of the spearheads of his policy.

Politburo member Nguyen Xuan Thang met the Azerbaijani ambassador in Hanoi on Tuesday (1 October). Thang said that this year marks a big anniversary in the relationship between Vietnam and Azerbaijan. It is the 65th anniversary of President Ho Chi Minh's visit to Baku. Thang reaffirmed Vietnam’s commitment to strengthening its friendship and cooperation with traditional allies like Azerbaijan. 

The United States has announced a $20 million aid package to strengthen Armenia's cyber, border and energy security, USAID Administrator Samantha Power announced at a Democracy Delivers Initiative event in New York. The event, co-hosted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, was attended by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

The UN General Assembly has begun its 79th session in New York. World leaders gathered to underline their goals, although many voices against the UN structure could not be overheard. Amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and most recently Lebanon, the session focused largely on the UN's ineffectiveness in its primary role - peacekeeping.