Global

There appears to have been a shift in the calculus of the war, though it is not entirely clear whether it amounts to a turning point or merely a pause. Writing for Al Arabiya, political analyst Raghida Dergham observed that both Washington and Tehran appear to be buying time, studying strategic and tactical mistakes, repositioning militarily and politically, and seeking what she called “a warrior's pause”. Neither side emerged from the first round with a decisive outcome: Tehran's regime appears to remain intact, and Trump's objectives remain unmet. What is new, and what has been described as both intriguing and alarming, is that Trump briefly spoke of a US-Iranian partnership in generating revenue via the Strait of Hormuz before walking back on the idea due to pressure from European and Gulf allies. The remark, however fleeting, signals the unpredictability of the situation; a White House moving between maximum pressure and maximum uncertainty, with allies left to scrape for interpretation. Reminiscent of this fact, negotiations in Islamabad seem to have stalled, and Trump's decision to impose a blockade on Iran’s maritime trade has only further disrupted the landscape, even as Iran threatens to retaliate by targeting Gulf ports directly. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)

There appears to have been a shift in the calculus of the war, though it is not entirely clear whether it amounts to a turning point or merely a pause. Writing for Al Arabiya, political analyst Raghida Dergham observed that both Washington and Tehran appear to be buying time, studying strategic and tactical mistakes, repositioning militarily and politically, and seeking what she called “a warrior's pause”. Neither side emerged from the first round with a decisive outcome: Tehran's regime appears to remain intact, and Trump's objectives remain unmet. What is new, and what has been described as both intriguing and alarming, is that Trump briefly spoke of a US-Iranian partnership in generating revenue via the Strait of Hormuz before walking back on the idea due to pressure from European and Gulf allies. The remark, however fleeting, signals the unpredictability of the situation; a White House moving between maximum pressure and maximum uncertainty, with allies left to scrape for interpretation. Reminiscent of this fact, negotiations in Islamabad seem to have stalled, and Trump's decision to impose a blockade on Iran’s maritime trade has only further disrupted the landscape, even as Iran threatens to retaliate by targeting Gulf ports directly. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)